A Possible Mid-August Coastal Storm Update Two

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Gray ME

1148 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-160400-

Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-

Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-

Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-

Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-

Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-

Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-

Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-

Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-

Western And Central Hillsborough-

1148 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,

southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,

central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New

Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A coastal storm is forecast to develop midweek and may affect the

local area. Confidence is low on the storm track, which leads to low

confidence on placement of heavy rain and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

000

FXUS61 KCAR 150214

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1014 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will track into the eastern Maritimes tonight.

High pressure will build into the area through Monday night.

Low pressure will develop to our south on Tuesday and lift north

into the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday, then into the Maritimes

Thursday night into Friday......

.....SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

High pressure will remain in the area Monday night. Some

clearing is expected in the north while the south will have some

low and mid level clouds per RH models. This will allow for

stronger diurnal cooling in the north, dropping temps into the

mid 50s while the south will see low 60s. For Tuesday, there is

improved consistency among ensemble spreads such that a surface

low will develop off the mid- Atlantic coast while high pressure

strengthens over Quebec. Vorticity models indicate some upper

level energy with increased moisture from the system. Isolated

to scattered showers are possible for the region. Very little

instability is expected during Tuesday afternoon, so stuck with

showers only and no thunderstorms.

Models are in much better agreement with the track of the

surface low for Tuesday night and Wednesday. QPF show much less

rain with this system as well. The good news is that the system

is not as deep as previously forecast, with pressure reaching

near 1005mb. Decided to go with the NBM for the precip forecast

since it’s a nice middle ground of all the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The large surface low is expected to move N Wednesday night into

Thursday. GFS has the system exiting the region much faster that

the Euro and Canadian. However, the Canadian does hang onto the

rain showers much longer than the Euro. Decided to go with the

GFS and Euro and had the rain showers exit the region by late

Thursday night. High pressure should move in for the end of the

week and into the weekend......

A Possible Mid-August Coastal Storm Update One