Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 03/15/2024

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

219 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL

AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

This is the seventh Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for

2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine.

This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the

one week period of March 14th through March 21st, 2024.

The potential for Ice Jams is Above Normal across the St. John

and the Allagash Basin. Ice Jam potential is Above Normal on the

Aroostook River below the Caribou Dam. Ice jam potential is over

for the 2024 season on all other river basins.

The potential for open water flooding is Normal across Downeast,

East-Central Maine, Bangor Region, Moosehead Region and into

Southern Aroostook County. The potential for open water flooding

is Below Normal across the St. John River basin in Northern Maine.

...NORTHERN BASINS...

OPEN WATER FLOOD THREAT: Below Normal.

SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. 12-18" of Snow in the Allagash to

NW Aroostook. 6-12" from the Moosehead Region into the Upper

Allagash Basin then St. John Valley. 1-6" from the Baxter Region

into Eastern Aroostook County. 18-25" above 2,000ft in Baxter

State Park.

WATER EQUIVALENT: 0.5-2.5" with higher amounts. Below Normal.

STREAM FLOWS: Normal to Above Normal for Mid March

RIVER ICE: St. John has an Ice Jam at the Confluence with the

Allagash River that is approx 2 miles long. It is mostly free and

clear above Dickey Bridge. Mixed jumbled, open leads and cracks

from Allagash/St. Francis townline downstream to St. John

Plantation. Mainly open river from Fort Kent to Madawaska with

some jumbled ice near Frenchville. Mostly clear to near Lille.

Mainly frozen solid with some rot downstream of Lille to Van Buren

and Hamlin. Allagash is opening up to above the town where a jam

is near the USGS gage above the town. The Aroostook has approx 7

miles worth of ice (some sheet but mostly jumbled) above the

Caribou Dam. The river is open from Caribou Dam to near the Fort

Fairfield Route 1A Bridge. It is jammed from the bridge and

extends Downstream to Tinker Dam in New Brunswick. Aroostook River

above Presque Isle to Oxbow is mainly open. There remains ice in

Oxbow upstream several miles that remain in place and continues to

rot. The Meduxnekeag River has some ice remaining jumbled near

the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians tribal lands due to previous

ice jam upstream that shifted.

...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS...

OPEN WATER FLOOD THREAT: Normal.

SNOW DEPTH: Zero to perhaps a trace in hardwoods. Well below

normal.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Zero. Well below normal.

STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal.

RIVER ICE: Very little ice remains with most stretches 100% ice

free.

...DOWNEAST BASINS...

OPEN WATER FLOOD THREAT: Normal.

SNOW DEPTH: Zero. Below Normal.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Zero. Below Normal.

STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal west, near Normal east.

RIVER ICE: Very little ice remains with most stretches 100% ice

free.

...LAKE ICE THICKNESS...

Ice thickness is extremely variable with recent warm spells

posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice unless

you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice safety

visit the Maine Warden Service website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing-

boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html

For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be

in graphical format on our website

www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook

...FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...

The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and (AO) teleconnections

were both slightly negative while the Pacific North American (PNA)

teleconnection was slightly positive. A positive PNA and negative

NAO/AO combination promotes more ridging in the western CONUS with

troughing across the eastern CONUS. All three indices are forecast

to approach near neutral during the next two weeks with the Artic

Oscillation (AO) remaining slightly negative. Thus, a somewhat

less amplified and zonal pattern is anticipated with some

transient troughing extending into the northeast. A split jet

stream pattern will make individual low tracks and QPF impacts

more challenging depending on timing and potential phasing. While

the subtropical jet stream is still active there will be an

opportunity for southern stream low system(s) to produce more

significant precipitation if deeper moisture can

approach...primarily across southern and eastern areas. A split

jet stream pattern with less blocking would typically yield more

seasonable temperatures on average with cold air intrusions brief.

Due to the lack of areal snow cover and pre-greenup conditions,

temperatures may be milder than typically expected. It currently

appears the northern branch of the jet stream will remain more

dominant across the Northeast along with the negative AO, allowing

for a drier cooler pattern next week. However, there is the

chance a deeper southern stream system may approach during week

two.

The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks March 19-26 generally agree with

average temperatures leaning normal short term to above normal long

term and precipitation near normal short term leaning wetter than

normal long term.

$$

Sinko

February 2024 Climate Summary for Northern and Eastern Maine

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CLIMATE REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

451 PM EST SAT MAR 02 2024

...PRELIMINARY FEBRUARY 2024 CLIMATE NARRATIVE FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN

MAINE...

FEBRUARY 2024 FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE FINISHED WITH WELL ABOVE

AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL WERE BOTH WELL

BELOW AVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM 5.5 TO 7.5 DEGREES (F)

ABOVE 1991-2020 NORMALS. IT RANKED AS THE 5TH WARMEST FEBRUARY ON

RECORD AT BOTH CARIBOU AND HOULTON, AND AS THE 4TH WARMEST IN

MILLINOCKET, AND THE 9TH WARMEST IN BANGOR.

THE MONTH WAS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION THAT

RANGED FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL, EXCEPT LOCALLY 50 TO 75

PERCENT OF NORMAL IN PARTS OF EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND

WASHINGTON COUNTY.

SNOWFALL WAS WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. IN FACT,

IT WAS THE 2ND LEAST SNOWY FEBRUARY ON RECORD IN BANGOR WITH ONLY

1.2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE ONLY YEAR ON RECORD WITH LESS SNOWFALL IN

FEBRUARY WAS IN 1998 WHEN AN INCH WAS OBSERVED. IN CARIBOU, ONLY 8.7

INCHES OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED WHICH MADE IT THE 7TH LEAST SNOWY

FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

A BIG WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE MONTH COMBINED WITH RAIN CAUSED MUCH

OF THE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO MELT. BY THE END OF THE MONTH

THE SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM ZERO TO AN INCH IN

BANGOR AND ALONG THE COAST (DUE TO RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE

EVENING OF THE 29TH). ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

REGION, THE SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES, BUT WITH LOCALLY A

FOOT OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE SNOW DEPTH AT THE END

OF THE MONTH WAS WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS ALL AREAS.

THE WARM-UP AND RAIN AT THE END OF THE MONTH WIPED OUT SO MUCH OF

THE SNOWPACK ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE SNOWMOBILE TRAILS BECAME

POOR AND IN MOST AREAS THE SNOWMOBILE SEASON ENDED. THE LACK OF SNOW

HAD SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR WINTER RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES

CAUSING MANY TO BE POSTPONED OR CANCELLED.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S FORECAST FOR MARCH 2024 INDICATES

THAT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS THAT POINT TOWARD ABOVE AVERAGE

TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS THAT POINT TOWARD EITHER

ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE

DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH AND LOWS/HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE

DIGITS/MID 20S F OVER THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 15F/35F ALONG THE

DOWNEAST COAST AT THE START OF THE MONTH, AND FROM LOWS/HIGHS IN THE

LOW 20S/NEAR 40F IN THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 25F/45F AT THE DOWNEAST

COAST. AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION,

AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL IS 15.2 INCHES IN BANGOR AND 21.4 INCHES IN

CARIBOU. OVER AN HOUR AND 40 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT IS GAINED DURING

THE MONTH OF MARCH. DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGINS THIS YEAR ON MARCH

10TH.

$$

CB/VJN