Tropical Storm Philippe Departs The Caribbean And Heads Our Way

000

WTNT32 KNHC 040232

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  43

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

1100 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 

PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.1N 65.5W

ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS

ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM S OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was 

located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Philippe is 

moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward 

the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a faster 

motion toward the north on Thursday and Friday.  On the forecast 

track, the center of Philippe will continue to move away from the 

Virgin Islands.  Philippe will then approach Bermuda Thursday night 

and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 

gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few 

days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL:  Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall 

amounts through Wednesday:

The United States & British Virgin Islands:  4 to 8 inches with 

maximum amounts to 12 inches.

Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding.

WIND:  Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the

the Virgin Islands through early Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the 

Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, 

and Puerto Rico for another couple of days.  Swells are expected to 

reach Bermuda by late Thursday.  These conditions are likely to 

cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult 

products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

000

WTNT42 KNHC 040233

TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  43

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

1100 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

Even though the center of Philippe is more than one hundred miles 

north of the Virgin Islands, heavy rains on the system's south side 

continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  

The cyclone remains poorly organized with the low-level circulation 

appearing diffuse and convection remaining ragged and lacking 

organization.  The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, which is near 

the high end of the satellite intensity estimates.

Philippe is moving northwestward, or 310 degrees, at 10 kt.  The 

models are in good agreement in showing Philippe turning 

north-northwestward to northward on Wednesday when the storm moves 

between a mid- to upper-level high over the central Atlantic and a 

cut off low off the Florida coast.  These features should provide 

the steering currents for Philippe through the remainder of the 

week, causing a northward motion with some increase in forward 

speed.  The storm is likely to be near Bermuda on Friday.  A larger 

trough is expected to move across eastern Canada and the 

northeastern U.S. late this week and cut off over the weekend.  In 

response, Philippe could turn northwestward into northern New 

England or Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days.

The storm continues to feel the effects of west-northwesterly shear 

and dry air entrainment, and its poor structure suggests that 

little, if any, intensification is likely in the short term.  The 

models show some strengthening late this week and early this weekend 

when Philippe likely gets some baroclinic support from the nearby 

trough.  This interaction should also cause Philippe to gain frontal 

features and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days before it reaches 

northern New England or Atlantic Canada.  The NHC intensity forecast 

lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered 

flash flooding across portions of the United States & British Virgin 

Islands through Wednesday.

2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the

northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.

3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on

Bermuda late this week.  Interests on Bermuda should monitor the

progress of Philippe.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 20.1N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  04/1200Z 21.2N  65.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  05/0000Z 22.8N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  05/1200Z 24.9N  66.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  06/0000Z 27.8N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 60H  06/1200Z 30.7N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  07/0000Z 33.9N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  08/0000Z 40.5N  66.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  09/0000Z 49.0N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

000

FXUS61 KCAR 040144

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

944 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A front stalls across Maine tonight, then moves back north in

the form of a warm front Wednesday. High pressure will be

centered well to the east Thursday through Friday. A complex

storm system approaches from the west Friday night through

Saturday, then slowly crosses the area Saturday night and

Sunday.....

.....Previous discussion...

A frontal boundary stalls across the region tonight while high

pressure builds south across the Maritimes. The high will begin

to move east Wednesday. With the developing return flow, the

frontal boundary will lift back north in the form of a warm

front Wednesday. Aloft, upper ridging builds across the region

tonight into Wednesday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies

across the region tonight. However, isolated showers moving over

the top of the building upper ridge could clip northern areas

overnight. Patchy fog is also possible overnight, mostly across

central and Downeast areas. Expect partly sunny skies across the

region Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the

lower to mid 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s Downeast. High

temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 70s

across much of the forecast area, with upper 60s to around 70

along the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The axis of the deep layered ridge slowly slides to the east

Wednesday night through Friday. Subsidence under the ridge

should keep things dry. There should be patches to possibly

areas of fog at night/during the early morning hours.

Lows Wednesday night should be around 20 degrees above normal.

Highs on Thursday and lows Thursday night should be around 10

degrees normal nearer the coast to up to around 20 degrees above

normal across portions of the North. Highs On Friday should be

around 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Remains from just east of the Great Lakes to over Western Quebec

from Friday night through Tuesday, depending on your model of

choice. This cutoff low interacts with Tropical Cyclone

Philippe, as it transitions towards extra-tropical and possible

merger with the cutoff low. The result will be a gradually

increasing chance of rain from Friday night into Saturday night

(likely pops everywhere Saturday night). The rain chances should

remain high on Sunday, then become more intermittent/showery in

nature Monday/Tuesday.

Depending on how much tropical moisture from Philippe gets

entrained into the cutoff, will determine how much rainfall we

get from this weekend into early next week. There is the

potential for a prolonged period of locally heavy rainfall over

the weekend. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty

as to how things will play out this far out in time. As a result

its too early to begin specify what, if any, impacts might be

had.

Refer to the most recent products from the National Hurricane

Center for the latest on Philippe.....