Winter Storm Jimenez Update One
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220007
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
707 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region tonight, then begin
to exit across the Maritimes later Sunday. Low pressure will
cross the region Monday, then exit across the Maritimes Tuesday
with high pressure building in for Wednesday. Low pressure will
approach Wednesday night, then cross the region Thursday.....
.....Previous Discussion...
Skies will cloud up during the day Sunday as a coastal low
pressure system approaches from the southwest. The vast majority
of Sunday will be dry, but a couple of snowflakes may reach
western areas towards sunset. Hence, put a slight chance of PoPs
in the forecast very late in the afternoon in the west.
Regardless, no accumulation is forecast for the daytime hours on
Sunday. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s in the North
and Central Highlands, with 30s near Bangor and Downeast. Winds
will be out of the southwest at around 5-10 mph during the day
Sunday, though some gusts approaching 20mph are possible near
the coast late in the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday Night and Monday...
Decent winter storm on track. Definitely seeing a south/weaker/faster
trend in the models and ensembles, and have tweaked forecast
accordingly, lowering snow amounts some in the north and
extending the axis of heavier snow just a bit further south over
Downeast. We are looking at a surface low tracking NE from the
Mid-Atlantic to just SE of Cape Cod to Nova Scotia Sunday night
and Monday. It will be strengthening some as it tracks NE. Look
for precipitation to develop from SW to NE Sunday night. It will
be a quick system, with precip tapering off from NW to SE
during the day Monday. Still a lot of uncertainty on how far
north the northern edge of snow gets, plus where the rain/snow
line sets up, but as mentioned, the trend has definitely been
south. Right now, it looks like the rain/snow line will be just
inland, with the heaviest snow from Bangor/Lincoln east toward
Topsfield, with about 50 miles of N/S uncertainty. With the
south trend, far Northern Maine is looking for less snow, with
probably under 4 inches once you get north of Mars Hill. Still
looking for some blowing snow as winds pick up Monday, but not
looking too bad as winds are only just barely strong enough for
blowing, plus the snow will somewhat wet in consistency with
snow ratios in the neighborhood of 10:1 in the area of heaviest
snowfall. Let the existing watches ride, and expanded watch
south to zone 16 and 17, as snow amounts have been increased
there, consistent with the southward trend in the models.
Monday Night and Tuesday...
System kicks out Monday evening, though could be some blowing
snow still in the evening, mainly Interior Downeast. Air behind
the system is a little cooler, with lows in the mid teens north
and low to mid 20s Downeast. Tuesday looks fairly mild ahead of
an approaching Arctic front. Highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Could be some snow showers in the afternoon in the north, and
perhaps snow squalls with the Arctic frontal passage roughly
early Tuesday evening. Accumulations look very small.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday Night and Wednesday...
Quite cold with temperatures about 10 degrees below average,
and dry once any evening snow squalls (mentioned above)
dissipate Tuesday evening.
Wednesday Night and Thursday...
Next low pressure system Wednesday night/Thursday looking a bit
stronger than the Sunday night/Monday storm, and likely taking
a bit of a more northerly track. Models are in reasonable
agreement for it being so far out, with the likelihood of over a
half inch of precip and perhaps over an inch. The general
consensus low track will bring pretty good winds areawide, and
a transition to rain Downeast, with mostly snow in the north.
Some models/ensembles, however, bring a changeover to rain even
in the north. Way too early to know for sure, but potential is
there for a significant storm.
Thursday Night Onward...
More model uncertainty late in the week. Generally speaking,
looks like an active pattern continues along with a strong
temperature gradient over the region.......
posted by Advackia at 7:32 PM
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