Hurricane Nicole (Category 1) Nears Landfall In Florida

000

FXUS61 KCAR 100413

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1113 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will slowly slide south of the region overnight

into Friday while a cold front becomes stationary across

northern Maine Thursday, and slowly lifts north to the Saint

John Valley as a warm front by Friday. Low pressure will

approach from the southwest Friday night and cross the area

Saturday with a cold front followed by weak high pressure for

Sunday. An upper trough will move across the region from the

west Sunday night into Monday as a weak surface low moves across

the Maritimes from the open Atlantic.....

......SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Summary: Significantly above normal temperatures are expected

Thursday night through Saturday, and particularly Friday night

into Saturday. Heavy rain will develop from the remnants of

Tropical Storm Nicole Friday night into Saturday. Localized

flooding is possible depending on the track of Nicole’s remnant

low, which remains uncertain.

Thursday Night: Northern Maine will be just south of a warm

front associated with an occluding low over the western Great

Lakes Thursday night. Isolated showers associated with the warm

front may clip northern portions of the Saint John Valley, but

otherwise dry conditions are expected with partly to mostly

cloudy skies keeping low temperatures in the 40s and near or in

some cases above the average high temperatures for this time of

the year.

Friday/Veterans Day: The area will remain south of the warm

front and north of moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm

Nicole. A break in cloud cover is possible between these two

features, with the most likely area with a period of sunnier

skies across central portions of the forecast area. 850mb

temperatures will be well above freezing, resulting in high

temperatures climbing into the 60s.

Friday night to Saturday: Remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole will

lift northward across the Mid-Atlantic and into New England

Friday night, merging with the mean upper level trough across

the Great Lakes. Highly anomalous precipitable water values and

northward water vapor transport will result in heavy rain. The

system will ingest a considerable amount of dry air from the

western Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a dry slot wrapping around

its eastern periphery. The northward extent of the dry slot in

Maine will depend on the low track, which remains uncertain.

Trends over the past 24 hours have shown a track across the far

northwestern portion of the forecast area. The heaviest rainfall

amounts and greatest chance of over two inches appears to be

along and just northwest of the low track, which for now appears

to be across Northern Aroostook County and into the North Woods.

Along the initial leading edge of precipitation and ahead of the

dry slot, isolated thunderstorms are possible given at least a

few hundred joules of elevated CAPE. Patchy advection fog is

also possible Downeast and over the waters late Friday night

into Saturday morning as dew points rise into the low to mid

60s. Record high temperatures are possible again on Saturday.

Depending on the width of the dry slot, a few spots across

Interior Downeast may reach into the 70s, but most areas will

see highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Saturday night to Sunday: Low pressure will depart into the

Maritimes with cooler air and lingering isolated showers, mainly

across the north and west. Temperatures will be much cooler but

unlike behind the last system, winds will not be strong this

time as an inverted trough hangs back across central Quebec and

keeps the pressure gradient from becoming too steep. Highs

Sunday will be slightly above normal with mid to upper 40s

across the north and low to mid 50s Downeast.

Sunday night: A quick moving shortwave trough will become

negatively tilted, resulting in a surface low forming across

the Gulf of Maine and quickly moving northeast as it deepens.

There is considerable uncertainty on the timing of this

transition, but a quick accumulation of snow across northern

Maine Sunday night cannot be ruled out given at least marginal

ensemble support.

Monday to Tuesday night: Canadian high pressure will build

across the area. Seasonably cool temperatures, dry conditions,

and partly to mostly clear skies are forecast.

Wednesday: The next upper level trough will approach the area on

Wednesday into Wednesday night. Ensembles indicate a variety of

possible low tracks, but this will be the next appreciable

threat of precipitation and snow after the Sunday night system.....

000

WTNT62 KNHC 100359

TCUAT2

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022

1100 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...11 PM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE...

...NICOLE BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY

RAINS AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

Radar imagery from Miami and Melbourne shows the center of Nicole is 

moving away from Grand Bahama Island and toward the east coast of 

Florida. Hourly updates of Nicole's position will continue as long 

as the center is easily trackable by land-based radar.

A C-MAN station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island recently 

reported a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION

---------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.1N 79.4W

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF SETTLEMENT POINT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

000

WTNT32 KNHC 100252

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Nicole Advisory Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022

1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

...BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY

RAINS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.0N 78.9W

ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF SETTLEMENT POINT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND

ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton has been

discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the

northwestern Bahamas

* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas

* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South

Carolina

* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida

* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida

* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in

the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions

to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern

coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was

located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 78.9 West.  Nicole is

moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn

toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn

toward the north and north-northeast on Friday.  On the forecast

track, the center of Nicole will move onshore the east coast of

Florida within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early

Thursday.  Nicole's center is then expected to move across central

and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday

night, and into the Carolinas Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Little change in strength is expected until Nicole makes

landfall along the Florida east coast.   Nicole is expected to

weaken while moving across Florida and the southeastern United 

States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely to become a

post-tropical cyclone by Friday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the 

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485 miles 

(780 km), especially to the north of the center. A WeatherFlow 

station at Juno Beach Pier recently reported a wind gust of 55 mph 

(89 km/h), and a C-MAN station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama 

Island recently reported a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue across 

portions of the northwestern Bahamas through tonight.  Tropical 

storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of 

Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning areas into 

Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane 

warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning.  Hurricane 

conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight. 

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along 

the west coast of Florida tonight and Thursday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the

St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft

* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South

Carolina...2 to 4 ft

* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown

Florida...2 to 4 ft

* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft

* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft

* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1

to 2 ft

* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above

normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern

Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and

can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to

your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Saturday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of

the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western

Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:

2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river

rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today

into Thursday.  Heavy rainfall from this system will spread

northward across portions of the Southeast, eastern Ohio Valley,

Mid-Atlantic, and New England Thursday through Saturday, where

limited flooding impacts will be possible.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible overnight into early

Thursday morning across east-central to northeast Florida.  The

tornado threat will increase and gradually expand north through the

day into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina.  Some

tornado risk should continue Thursday night into early Friday across

eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina.  Tornadoes

will again be possible during the day Friday centered on central to

eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern

Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern

United States coast during the next few days.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

WTNT42 KNHC 100253

TCDAT2

Hurricane Nicole Discussion Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022

1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

The hurricane has large intense bands extending quite far from the 

center, but does not have a distinct Central Dense Overcast.  

Flight-level wind observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft 

indicate that the maximum winds are near 65 kt.  Dvorak satellite 

classifications gave a slightly lower intensity, probably because 

the system does not have a classic tropical cyclone appearance at 

this time.  Nicole has a large eye over 50 nmi in diameter, and a 

very large extent of tropical-storm-force winds over its northern 

semicircle.

Nicole has made its expected turn toward a west-northwestward 

heading and the motion estimate is now 285/11 kt.  The system 

should turn toward the northwest and north during the next day or 

so while moving along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone, 

moving over the Florida peninsula and northern Florida.  In 36 to 

48 hours, Nicole should accelerate north-northeastward to the east 

of a longwave mid-tropospheric trough.  The official track forecast 

is about the same as the previous one and remains close to the 

multi-model consensus prediction.

The hurricane has little time to strengthen further before making 

landfall in Florida.  Weakening will occur while Nicole moves over 

Florida, and even though the center may briefly emerge over the 

extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico, this is not likely to result in 

any significant re-intensification.  The system should weaken to a 

depression and become a post-tropical cyclone over the southeastern 

United States.  Nicole should merge with another extratropical low 

over the eastern United States after 48 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm

surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern

Bahamas tonight, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast

of southeast and east-central Florida tonight, where a Hurricane 

Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions will continue along 

the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the 

warning areas into Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected 

to begin along the west coast of Florida tonight and Thursday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast

of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend

along the Gulf coast.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large

and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast.  Residents in the

warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large

storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,

outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards will affect much of the

Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight into Thursday across 

the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible 

across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river 

flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small 

stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast 

through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue 

Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central 

Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night into Saturday. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 27.0N  78.9W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  10/1200Z 27.9N  81.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

 24H  11/0000Z 29.7N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 36H  11/1200Z 32.6N  83.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 48H  12/0000Z 36.5N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Pasch

2:10 PM AST Wednesday 09 November 2022

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

The next information statement will be issued by 2:00 p.m. AST Thursday.

For Tropical Storm Nicole.

Tropical Storm Nicole (near hurricane-strength at the time of this bulletin) is heading toward Florida and likely will landfall as a category-one hurricane early tomorrow. Nicole will then turn northward travelling over land (Georgia, The Carolinas) while merging with a cold front and becoming post tropical. The combined weather system is expected to track through New England early Saturday and into the Maritimes Saturday evening.

Since the storm is expected to transition to 'post-tropical' well to our south, it will essentially be an autumn type storm while impacting Eastern Canada. Heavy rain will spread well north of the low's track as far north and west as Lake Erie and Lake Ontario then into southern Quebec. Rain and wind is expected over the Maritime provinces with very mild, tropical temperatures and gusty winds south of the track and cold northeasterly winds north of it. This frontal low will likely track somewhere through New Brunswick. Parts of central and eastern Quebec and eventually Newfoundlland could even see some snow, so this will clearly be a non-tropical storm and this bulletin is in effect for the 'tropical side' of the system.

Rainfall could be in the 50 to 100 mm range along and north of the track. We do not anticipate very strong winds - but there will be two windy parts of the low both north and south - perhaps gusting in the neighborhood of 70 km/h in some areas. Details will appear in local forecasts from the regional weather offices starting tomorrow night. Elevated water levels and wave activity is likely in the northern Gulf of St Lawrence affecting northeastern New Brunswick and the Gaspe region that could cause some minor flooding so we will monitor and provide details later.

The CHC will continue to track this system with once-a-day updates but we will not be issuing a specific track forecast.

Forecaster: FOGARTY

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.