Early November Nor'Easter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
252 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-072000-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
252 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO RAIN IN DOWNEAST
AREAS BUT MAY CONTINUE AS SNOW AND SLEET INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME SLIPPERY ROADWAYS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...

.COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AS THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE WATERS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-070500-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WI.Y.0006.121107T2100Z-121108T1200Z/
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BIDDEFORD...SACO...OLD ORCHARD BEACH...
KITTERY...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...BATH...
TOPSHAM...BOOTHBAY HARBOR...WISCASSET...WALDOBORO...CAMDEN...
ROCKLAND...THOMASTON...BELFAST...LINCOLNVILLE...PORTSMOUTH...
HAMPTON
314 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A
  GRADUAL DECREASE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY RESULT IN LARGE LIMBS BEING
  KNOCKED DOWN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS STRONG WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS OF
46 TO 57 MPH CAN LEAD TO DAMAGE DUE TO DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

&&

$$

LEGRO

000
FXUS61 KCAR 070208
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

UPDATE: MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AND THE TIMING OF PRECIP. WE WILL FIRST HIT THE TEMPERATURES... LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWED STRATOCU STARTING TO DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY W/WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE W/DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW/MID TEENS. READINGS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO BUMP BACK OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW LYING SITES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY W/DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. NOW WE CAN TURN TO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION... LATEST GFS/NAM AND EVEN THE ECMWF INDICATE DRY AIR HOLDING ON LONGER AS THE SFC HIGH PRES LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW PRES IS FCST TO INTENSIFY AS IS MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COORDINATED W/GYX IN PULLING BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS KEEPS CHC POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS PRECIP OVERRUNS THE DRIER AIR IN THE BLYR, KEEPING ANY PRECIP AS GENERALLY VIRGA UNTIL AND LLVLS CAN BECOME MORE SATURATED. CARRIED RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM OVER THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTION AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 35-37 DEGREE RANGE WHILE ON THE COAST, EXPECTING PRECIP IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN BEFORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING ALLOWS FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND OCCLUDE. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INLAND AS IT MOVES IN. SNOW AND SLEET WILL COVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND NORTHERN MAINE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND RAIN ELSEWHERE IS LIKELY BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A QUARTER INCH QPF. THIS MAY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN SPOTS AND COULD BE ENOUGH TO MAKE ROADS SLIPPERY THURSDAY MORNING. AROUND A HALF INCH IS LIKELY DOWNEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE STORM WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT SLIPS EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PRESS IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW MOVING UP EASTERN SEABOARD. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH KICK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF GULF OF MAINE INTO OPEN ATLANTIC WITH PRECIP...GENERALLY IN FORM OF SNOW...ENDING BY EARLY SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN WITH COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM WEST LATE MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RASH. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: STAYED W/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TERM. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AS STATED BELOW, GALE WARNING IS UP. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH SHOW CONDITIONS STARTING OUT AS SCA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND RAMPING UP TO GALES BY THE END OF THIS TERM ESPECIALLY FOR GUSTS. MDL GUIDANCE SHOWED 925-850MBS JET OF 45KTS OVERRUNNING THE 15-20KTS AT THE SFC. MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE BUFKIT FOR JONESPORT INDICATED GUST POTENTIAL TO 35 KTS BY 00Z. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BECOMING STRONGEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY BUT AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOLLOWING THE GALE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/BLOOMER