Major Hurricane Teddy (Category Four) Could Pose A Long-Range Threat To The Region - Update One
000
WTNT35 KNHC 180236
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020
...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 54.7W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 54.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
through Friday, with a weakening trend likely to begin this
weekend.
Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTNT45 KNHC 180237
TCDAT5
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020
After a significant strengthening episode this afternoon, Teddy is
maintaining Category Four intensity. Observations from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into the
hurricane this evening indicate that the maximum winds remain near
120 kt. Since Teddy should remain in a low-shear environment for
the next day or so, additional strengthening could occur on Friday.
An upper-level cyclone seen in water vapor images to the southeast
of Bermuda and the cool wake of previous Hurricane Paulette could
impede strengthening in a couple of days. However, Teddy is likely
to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 72 hours,
including the time it passes closest to Bermuda. Some fluctuations
in strength due to eyewall replacements are possible during that
period.
The hurricane has continued to move northwestward, or around 315/10
kt. Teddy should move along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level high during the next 2-3 days, and then turn northward
around days 3-4 while moving through a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. Around the end of the forecast period, Teddy will probably
interact with a deep mid-tropospheric cyclone in the vicinity of
Nova Scotia. This interaction will probably cause Teddy to bend
somewhat toward the left around day 5, but there is significant
uncertainty in the details of the track at that forecast time
range. It is also possible that the system will be losing
tropical characteristics by the end of the period, but this
remains to be seen.
Key Messages:
1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.
2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 20.9N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
FXUS61 KCAR 180116
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
916 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall near the coast overnight and slowly
exit across the Gulf of Maine Friday. High pressure will slowly
build east across the region Friday through Monday. Strong low
pressure may approach from the southeast on Tuesday........
.........LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night into Monday morning will be the last chilly night
through the long term with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s
across the North. Bangor region to Downeast will see Mid 30s to
Low 40s Monday AM. As we go into early week we will see an
elongated surface high pressure over the Eastern US that allows
us to stay with the fair weather into Tuesday morning. Aloft a
trough will be sliding east over the area while digging
southward that will become the main focus on whether we see
anything from Hurricane Teddy. Most of the operational guidance
show this trough digging south & trying to go negatively tilted
capturing Teddy, but where does this capture take place? That
will likely be the biggest factor on what we may or may not see
from Teddy. GFS & UKMET operational models continue to keep this
storm out to sea or into Nova Scotia with minimum impacts to
the forecast area. It is important to note these models have
slowly trended westward in their solutions. The Canadian &
ECMWF operational runs show a closer capture to us that would
result in some impacts but still seems to be the western
outliers. There is a ton of differences in the ensemble members
between both the Euro & GFS, that this forecasters confidence on
impacts to our area is very low at this time. We have added
chance pops due to the uncertainty but it will take a few more
days to hammer out the details. Otherwise temperatures remain at
or slightly above average from Wednesday into Thursday ahead of
a weak cold front dipping south from Quebec.
&&
posted by Advackia at 8:32 PM
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