Potentially Destructive Winter Storm Elliott Marches Eastward

000

FXUS61 KCAR 220221

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

921 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build across the region tonight into

Thursday. Strong low pressure in the Midwest will draw an

occluded front across the region Friday night into Saturday

while the low tracks well northwest across Ontario and Quebec

provinces. Upper level disturbance will remain over the area

through early next week.....

......SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Significant and Damaging Storm Expected at the End of the Week...

By Friday evening, 1040mb high pressure over Quebec will push twd

the Maritimes as the strong low pressure system approaches fm the

midwest. Sfc low will deepen overnight as it wraps up thru the Great

Lakes with the occlusion extending southwestward into NY State.

Precipitation moves into the region around midnight Fri night with

mainly rain along the Downeast coast and a rain/snow mix over

portions of interior Downeast with snow to the north at onset. As

warm air moves in aloft on strengthening LLJ of 35-45kts frozen

precip will begin to mix with freezing rain as it transitions

further to the north. Snow accums over portions of the Central

Highlands will only be a couple of inches by daybreak.

Temps by 12z Fri will have warmed up into the m/u 30s over interior

Downeast but will remain in the lwr 20s over the north. Cold air

damming will likely keep surface temps north of Houlton from warming

above freezing until closer to 18z with northern Aroostook not

reaching freezing until closer to 00z. This will keep frozen precip

across the north with cold air pretty much stuck in place. LL winds

will kick in early-mid afternoon and help overcome cold temps down

to the surface and allow frozen precip everywhere to change over to

all rain late afternoon and early evening.

Snow accumulations during the day Fri will mainly be to the west of

Rte 11 with a possible 3-5 inch amounts, with 1-3" expected closer

to the NB border north of Houlton. With the cold air damming

expected to the north of the Interstate 95 corridor ice

accumulations will range from a few hundredths to a tenth of an

inch by the time all precipitation changes over to rain.

Not only does the precip change to all rain it will be heavy at

times Fri afternoon into late Fri evening. Have also continued

with thunder mention along the coast Fri afternoon and evening.

Front moves through late Friday night with a drop to below

freezing in the Bangor Region right around midnight. The front

will move through the eastern zones by around 3 am. Heavy rain,

including the snowmelt, will likely leave standing water on the

roads and with a 12-degree drop in temps within 3-4 hours expect

a flash freeze to occur. H8 temps drop approximately 16C within

12 hours which is more than sufficient to result in water

freezing on the road surfaces before evaporating and/or

sublimating.

Following the front temps will be hard-pressed to rise much on

Saturday with light snow showers wrapping in behind. Winds will

remain out of the south with gusts to near 30 mph in the

afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Fairly quiet wx expected thru the long term. Temps will be near

to slightly below normal. Upr level low pressure will linger

thru eastern Canada with weak waves drifting thru the CWA at

times through the middle of next week.....

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Caribou ME

815 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032-221000-

/O.CON.KCAR.FA.A.0005.221223T1200Z-221224T0300Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, Lincoln,

Howland, Springfield, Bangor, Brewer, Orono, Old Town, Amherst,

Aurora, Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond, Calais, Grand Lake Stream,

Wesley, Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport, Orland,

Castine, Eastport, Perry, Machias, Cherryfield, Dover-Foxcroft,

Milo, Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield

815 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Central Highlands Maine, Coastal DownEast Maine,

  Far Eastern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, and Penobscot

  Valley Maine, including the following areas, in Central

  Highlands Maine, Central Piscataquis and Southern Piscataquis.

  In Coastal DownEast Maine, Coastal Hancock and Coastal

  Washington. In Far Eastern Maine, Northern Washington. In

  Interior DownEast Maine, Central Washington and Interior

  Hancock. In Penobscot Valley Maine, Central Penobscot and

  Southern Penobscot.

* From Friday morning through Friday evening

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone

  locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Area

  creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more

  heavy rain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible

Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be

prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

814 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-221000-

/O.CON.KCAR.HW.A.0007.221223T1200Z-221224T0900Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,

Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,

Mars Hill, Ashland, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park,

Chamberlain Lake, Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Millinocket,

East Millinocket, Patten, Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman,

Smyrna Mills, Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, Lincoln, Howland,

Springfield, Bangor, Brewer, Orono, Old Town, Amherst, Aurora,

Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond, Calais, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley,

Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport, Orland, Castine,

Eastport, Perry, Machias, Cherryfield, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo,

Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield

814 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph

  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far

  Eastern, Far Northern, Interior DownEast, North Woods and

  Penobscot Valley Maine.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power

  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be

  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this

situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe

location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Gray ME

132 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-220245-

/O.CON.KGYX.CF.A.0002.221223T1300Z-221223T1800Z/

Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-

Coastal Waldo-Coastal Rockingham-

132 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING

THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Some areas may have moderate flooding around the time

  of the Friday morning high tide with a foot or more water in

  some areas. Flooding may continue into the early afternoon

  hours. Large, battering waves may lead to splash-over and

  beach erosion.

* WHERE...In Maine, Coastal York, Coastal Cumberland, Sagadahoc,

  Lincoln, Knox and Coastal Waldo Counties. In New Hampshire,

  Coastal Rockingham County.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through early Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Numerous roads may be closed. Low lying property

  including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure

  may be inundated. Some shoreline erosion may occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be

closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of

unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone

property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Seavey Island / Portsmouth NH

MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 12.5 ft, Major 13.5 ft

MHHW Categories - Minor 2.7 ft, Moderate 3.7 ft, Major 4.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure

 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood

            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact

 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------

 21/10 PM     7.5       -1.3       -0.4        2       None

 22/10 AM     9.3        0.5       -0.2        1       None

 22/11 PM     8.5       -0.3        0.4       3-7      None

 23/11 AM    12.0        3.2        2.2      13-16    Minor

 23/11 PM     8.3       -0.5        0.0      11-12     None

 24/11 AM     9.6        0.8       -0.4        9       None

Hampton Harbor NH

MLLW Categories - Minor 11.0 ft, Moderate 12.0 ft, Major 13.0 ft

MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 3.5 ft

             Total      Total    Departure

 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood

            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact

 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------

 21/10 PM     7.9       -1.6       -0.4        2       None

 22/10 AM     9.8        0.3       -0.1        1       None

 22/10 PM     8.8       -0.7        0.2       2-6      None

 23/10 AM    12.2        2.7        1.9      12-14   Moderate

 23/11 PM     8.7       -0.8        0.0      10-11     None

 24/11 AM    10.1        0.6       -0.4        8       None

Portland ME

MLLW Categories - Minor 12.0 ft, Moderate 13.0 ft, Major 14.0 ft

MHHW Categories - Minor 2.3 ft, Moderate 3.3 ft, Major 4.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure

 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood

            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact

 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------

 21/09 PM     8.8       -0.9       -0.4        1       None

 22/09 AM    10.8        1.1       -0.2        1       None

 22/10 PM     9.5       -0.2        0.1       1-2      None

 23/10 AM    13.3        3.6        2.0       4-6    Moderate

 23/11 PM    10.1        0.4        0.5      11-14     None

 24/11 AM    11.3        1.6       -0.2        9       None

Boothbay Harbor ME

MLLW Categories - Minor 13.0 ft, Moderate 14.0 ft, Major 15.0 ft

MHHW Categories - Minor 3.3 ft, Moderate 4.3 ft, Major 5.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure

 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood

            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact

 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------

 21/09 PM     8.5       -1.2       -0.4       0-1      None

 22/09 AM    10.4        0.7       -0.2        1       None

 22/10 PM     9.3       -0.4        0.2       1-3      None

 23/10 AM    13.1        3.4        2.1      8-12     Minor

 23/11 PM    10.1        0.4        0.8       8-9      None

 24/11 AM    11.2        1.5        0.0       6-7      None

&&

$$