Tropical Storm Elsa Pounds Cuba

000

FXUS61 KCAR 060332

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1132 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will crest south of the region this evening. A

warm front will approach tonight and lift north through the area

Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area early Wednesday then

stall offshore on Thursday while low pressure approaches. Low

pressure will pass south of the area Friday and pull away from

the region Saturday.

&&.....

......LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Heavy rainfall is possible Thursday night into Friday night as

low pressure from the Great Lakes region moves northeastward

along the stalled frontal boundary. The associated upper level

shortwave will amplify and help pull in the remnants of Tropical

Storm Elsa northward towards eastern Maine. With deep moisture,

elevated instability and PWs over 1.75 inches, it`s certainly

possible most of the area could see an inch or two of rainfall

or more. The low pressure system will exit later Friday night.

Drier and seasonable cool air is expected for next weekend and

into Monday as cool Canadian high pressure builds. A blend of

models leads to increasing PoPs again by later Monday into

Monday night.....

000

WTNT35 KNHC 060250

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA BACK OVER WATER BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA...

...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY 

TORTUGAS ON TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.5N 82.3W

ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF HAVANA CUBA

ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning

for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Villa Clara.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River

including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa

* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the

progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 

located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near 

latitude 23.5 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the 

north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is 

expected to continue tonight and Tuesday morning, followed by a turn 

toward the north on Tuesday night.  A north-northeastward motion is 

expected on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Elsa will move across 

the Florida Straits tonight and pass near the Florida Keys early 

Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the 

west coast of Florida by late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West and an Air 

Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum 

sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 

gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of

central and western Cuba for the next several hours.  Tropical

storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida

Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning

Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread

northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical

Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical

storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning

late Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal

tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore

winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally

dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving

inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following

heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to

4 ft

Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft

Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft

Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft

Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 

10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. 

This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across 

the Cayman Islands tonight, additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches 

with storm total rainfall to 5 inches is expected. This rain may 

lead to scattered flash flooding.    

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and 

impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the 

Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up 

to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable 

flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate 

river flooding. 

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low 

Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum 

totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in 

isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern 

Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches 

Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated 

flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight 

and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the

southern coast of Cuba tonight.  Swells will increase near the

Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward

along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.

Please consult products from your local weather office for more

details.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Stewart/Latto

812 

WTNT45 KNHC 060250

TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface 

observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, 

having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. 

Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate 

values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent 

surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying 

just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured 

reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, 

the intensity has been increased to 50 kt. 

The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past 

three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous 

track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving 

north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a 

deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to 

central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge 

over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then 

north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late 

Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a 

mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern 

United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is 

very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly 

eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad 

east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models.

Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, 

with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly 

reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida 

peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a 

small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has 

been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a 

condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in 

about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains 

similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 

kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC 

forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will 

be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the 

intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning 

is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the 

cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity 

forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight 

resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa 

approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast 

Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated 

flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding 

possible in southwest and western portions of Florida.  Mid to late 

week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and 

southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban 

flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along

portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday,

and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across

portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward

across portions of the Florida Keys and  the Florida west coast

through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of

the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 23.5N  82.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  06/1200Z 24.9N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  07/0000Z 26.9N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  07/1200Z 29.2N  83.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  08/0000Z 31.6N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 60H  08/1200Z 34.0N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 72H  09/0000Z 36.9N  76.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 96H  10/0000Z 43.3N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  11/0000Z 50.5N  52.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Stewart

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

816 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-070030-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

816 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,

Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley

Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, with the main activity during

the afternoon. A few storms could become strong with gusty winds and

heavy rainfall, with the main activity from the Maine Central

Highlands down into the Penobscot Valley and interior Downeast.

Remnants from Tropical Storm Elsa could bring heavy rain to the

region Thursday night through Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$