Lee Regains Major Hurricane Status (Category 3), Is Increasingly Likely To Impact Our Region

000

WTNT33 KNHC 110247

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...LEE GROWING LARGER BUT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOT YET

INCREASED...

...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN

ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.6N 62.2W

ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located 

near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 62.2 West. Lee is moving toward 

the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower west-northwestward 

motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, 

Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands, 

the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next day or two.

NOAA aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain 

near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 

hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional 

strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by 

gradual weakening.

Lee has been growing in size, with hurricane-force winds now 

extending outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and 

tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 175 miles (280 

km).

The minimum central pressure measured by NOAA reconnaissance

aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser 

Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, 

Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. 

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 

current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to 

reach portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are forecast to 

worsen and spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast during 

the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local 

weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Papin

311 

WTNT43 KNHC 110252

TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

There has been a wealth of data to dig though this evening for 

Hurricane Lee. Observations from both satellite imagery and this 

evening's NOAA-P3 mission indicate the hurricane has become more 

symmetric in both its convective pattern and wind field. On 

satellite, Lee has once again become more impressive with a warming 

eye surrounded by cold -65 to -75C eyewall cloud tops. In response, 

the subjective Dvorak estimates have been increasing, both T6.0/115 

kt from TAFB and SAB. In addition, a single closed eyewall of 25 n 

mi in diameter was reported by the NOAA aircraft, which has also 

been observed by the TDR data and an earlier 2151 UTC SSMIS 

microwave pass. The surface pressure has also been dropping, with 

the most recent dropsonde in the eye reporting 950 mb. However, the 

winds have yet to respond to the decreasing pressure, with peak 

flight-level winds of 108 kt, SFMR at 103 kt, and surface reduced 

TDR data also in the 100-105 kt range. All of the in-situ aircraft 

data supports maintaining an initial intensity of 105 kt this 

advisory. A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass valid at 2213 UTC 

also showed a 105-kt peak wind, but with expanding 64-kt wind radii, 

which might explain why the winds have yet to respond to the 

pressure drop.

Track-wise, Lee continues to move west-northwestward, at 305/6 kt.

This motion is expected to generally continue with a further

slowdown in the forward motion now that the mid-level ridging

influencing the storms steering has shifted more northwest in front

of the hurricane. However, this ridge is expected to then become

eroded by an approaching deep-layer trough, allowing Lee to turn

northward into the weakness produced by the trough. The track

guidance this cycle is in fairly good agreement over the next 5

days, with the largest details still related to the forward motion

of Lee after it turns northward. The NHC track forecast is pretty

much on top of the prior one, continuing to favor the consensus

aids, and is roughly in between the leftward GFS and rightward

ECMWF model solutions. Users should be reminded to not focus on the

exact forecast track, especially given Lee's forecast size at the

longer range, and the average day 4 and 5 track errors are about

145 and 200 miles, respectively.

Data from an earlier NOAA G-IV mission sampling the environment 

around Lee indicated that the vertical wind shear that had been 

affecting the hurricane has mostly subsided, with the dropsonde data 

showing well-established outflow to the north, and a deep-layer of 

cyclonic flow to the south associated with Lee's broad and deep 

circulation. While it is difficult to predict the inner-core changes 

associated with the cyclone, most of the intensity guidance still 

suggests Lee will intensify further over the next day or so, with a 

120-kt peak predicted in 24 hours. Afterwards, as Lee continues to 

slow down, it may then begin to encounter its own cold wake due to 

its expanding wind field, and the hurricane is expected to begin 

gradually weakening. This weakening should be hastened by increasing 

southwesterly vertical wind shear after 72 h as the storm also 

traverses already cooled sea-surface temperatures by Franklin and 

Idalia last week. However, the model guidance also shows Lee's 34-kt 

and 50-kt wind field continuing to expand through the forecast 

period even as the hurricane gradually weakens.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect

portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto

Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and

Bermuda through much of this week.

2. Lee could bring wind, rainfall, and high surf impacts to

Bermuda later this week.  Although it is too soon to determine the

specific timing and level of those impacts, interests on Bermuda

should monitor the latest forecasts for Lee.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any,

Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada late

this week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow

down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless,

dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.

East Coast this week as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to

monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 22.6N  62.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

 12H  11/1200Z 23.1N  63.1W  115 KT 130 MPH

 24H  12/0000Z 23.6N  64.4W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  12/1200Z 24.1N  65.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

 48H  13/0000Z 24.6N  66.4W  110 KT 125 MPH

 60H  13/1200Z 25.3N  67.2W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  14/0000Z 26.5N  67.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  15/0000Z 30.2N  67.9W   85 KT 100 MPH

120H  16/0000Z 35.5N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$

Forecaster Papin

000

FXUS61 KCAR 110158

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

958 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary along the

Downeast coast through Monday, then move south across the Gulf

of Maine Monday night. An occluded front will approach late

Tuesday through Tuesday night, then cross the region Wednesday

through early Thursday......

......LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The cold/occluded front will cross the region Wednesday night,

while low pressure moves north along the front. Rain, possibly

heavy at times, will persist in advance of the front then begin

to diminish in the wake of the front. The front will exit across

the Maritimes early Thursday, with an upper level low

approaching late. Could still have rain early in advance of the

front, then tapering to showers in the wake of the front. The

upper low lifts north of the region Friday, with troffing

extending south across the forecast area. Generally expect

partly cloudy skies Friday, though could also have the slight

chance of a shower across mostly northern areas. Uncertainty

still exists regarding the track/timing of Hurricane Lee

Saturday into Sunday. Continue to monitor National Hurricane

Center products for the latest information on the

strength/track/timing of Lee. Regardless of the eventual

track/timing, long period swells will result in an increasing

risk of dangerous rip currents and high surf from mid to late

week. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures

expected Thursday through Sunday......