Winter Storm Diaz

9:11 PM AST Thursday 15 December 2022

Special weather statement in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Significant snowfall is likely Saturday and Saturday night.

Total snowfall: 10 to 20 cm.

Maximum wind gusts: northeasterly 50 to 70 km/h.

Time span: Saturday morning until late Saturday night.

Remarks: There is considerable uncertainty in the timing of when the snow will start and when it will end. The snow is expected to be wet in nature and may be mixed with rain especially along coastal areas.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

000

FXUS61 KCAR 160209

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

909 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will ridge across the region overnight and move

east Friday. Low pressure will track into the Great Lakes

Saturday while secondary low pressure lifts to near Nova Scotia

and into the Gulf of Maine. These lows will lift to our north on

Sunday into Monday. High pressure will build toward the region

Tuesday......

.....Previous discussion:

High pressure centered north of Labrador will ridge south

across the region tonight. However, moisture trapped beneath a

subsidence inversion will support mostly cloudy skies across the

region tonight. Scattered flurries are also possible. High

pressure will exit across the Maritimes Friday. At the same

time, intensifying low pressure will track from the Mid-Atlantic

coast toward southern New England. Snow will expand, from

southwest to northeast, across the forecast area Friday in

advance of the low. Snow accumulation of up to around an inch

are possible across southwest portions of the forecast area

through later Friday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will

range through the 20s north to the upper 20s to around 30

Downeast. High temperatures Friday will range from the upper 20s

to around 30 north, to the lower to mid 30s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Headlines: A significant winter storm will impact the area

during the short-term period. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect

for Central and Southern Piscatiquis County, Central and

Southern Penobscot County, and Interior portions of Hancock and

Washington Counties. Confidence is highest for warning criteria

snows in these places at this time.

Discussion:

A strengthening low pressure system will slowly track through

the Gulf of Maine towards Nova Scotia from Friday night through

Saturday. Thus, precipitation will overspread most of the area

from southwest to northeast Friday night, and continue

throughout Saturday. The exception is Northern Aroostook

County, where downsloping east to northeast winds from a high

pressure system will limit pops. Thermal profiles suggest a

mainly snow event for the region, except for Coastal Downeast

where a mix of rain and snow is forecast. Thus, held off on

issuing any winter weather headlines north of the current watch

area and along the coast due to uncertainties with precipitation

amounts and types respectively.

Breezy conditions are forecast inland with windy conditions at

the coast for Friday night and Saturday. Northeast wind gusts of

25-30 mph are expected inland, while gusts around 40 mph are

possible at the coast. Most model guidance keeps the very

strongest winds with this storm offshore, so held off on any

wind headlines for the coast at this time. Will continue to

monitor and update as needed.

The low will move slowly move further northeastward Saturday

night and Sunday. At the same time, an upper-level low will

approach the area from the west. This setup will cause

precipitation to taper to snow showers in southern areas, with a

mix of rain and snow showers at the immediate coast. Across the

North, however, the upper-level low is expected to enhance

snowfall. Much of the accumulating snowfall in Northern Aroostook

County forecast for this weekend is likely to occur during this

time. Winds will slowly diminish during this time as the low

near Nova Scotia moves away from Maine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

By Monday, a secondary low developing over Quebec will move

south, merging with the first low to develop an inverted trof.

This trof is expected to stall over the region with the initial

low which will bring additional snow fall over the area into

next week. Accumulations could be significant with the extent of

the snowy days. A brief ridge should set up on Tuesday, then

move out by Wednesday with an approaching low. 12Z models show a

cold front moving through the region with possible snow showers

in the north. High temps should be above normal.....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

908 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

MEZ010-011-015>017-031-032-161015-

/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0010.221216T2100Z-221218T0600Z/

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior

Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern

Washington-

Including the cities of Eastbrook, Vanceboro, Bangor, Topsfield,

Orono, Springfield, Aurora, Danforth, Lincoln, Guilford, Dedham,

Monson, Blanchard, Princeton, Milo, Wesley, Calais, Greenville,

Brewer, Amherst, Great Pond, Old Town, Howland, Dover-Foxcroft,

and Grand Lake Stream

908 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than

  8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Interior

  DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions

  could impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring

  down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow,

sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to

monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

CB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Gray ME

819 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...PROLONGED WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Low pressure located in the Delmarva region late this evening will

move north and east into southern New England tonight and on

Friday...with the season`s first widespread winter storm expected to

continue across the area through Saturday.

MEZ007>009-012>014-033-NHZ001-002-004-161330-

/O.CON.KGYX.WS.W.0007.221216T1500Z-221218T0500Z/

Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern

Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior Cumberland

Highlands-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Carroll-

Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron, Middle

Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, Rangeley,

Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, Long Pond,

Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman, Bethel,

Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway,

Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple,

Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra,

Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Bridgton, Harrison, Naples, Errol,

Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin, Dummer, Milan, York Pond, Lancaster,

Jackson, North Conway, Albany, Conway, Chatham, and Crawford Notch

819 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO

MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15

  inches expected.  Locally higher amounts possible at elevations

  higher than 1500 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, west central, and western

  Maine. Portions of northern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to Midnight EST Saturday Night.

* IMPACTS...Significant snowfall with the potential for a foot plus

  of snow will bring a period of impacts. Moderate snow with periods

  of heavy snow will create hazardous travel conditions across the

  region.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in

your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can

be obtained by going to newengland511.org

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Gray ME

819 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...PROLONGED WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Low pressure located in the Delmarva region late this evening will

move north and east into southern New England tonight and on

Friday...with the season`s first widespread winter storm expected to

continue across the area through Saturday.

MEZ024>028-161330-

/O.CON.KGYX.WW.Y.0023.221216T1500Z-221218T0500Z/

Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-

Including the cities of Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland,

Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg,

Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen,

Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset,

Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport,

Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, and Lincolnville

819 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO

MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Wet Snow expected. Total snow of 2 to 7 inches with the

  greatest amounts furthest from the coast.

* WHERE...Coastal Waldo, Knox, Lincoln, Sagadahoc, and Coastal

  Cumberland Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to Midnight EST Saturday Night.

* IMPACTS...Heavy wet snow will cause weighted tree limbs of

  conifers and leafed trees, leading to snapped branches. Isolated

  to scattered outages possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will mix with and possibly change to

  rain for a time Friday before changing to all snow late Friday and

  Friday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road

conditions can be obtained by going to newengland511.org

&&

$$

JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

507 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

MEZ001>006-161200-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

507 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine and North Woods Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Significant snowfall remains possible across the region Friday night

into Sunday. However, storm total accumulations are still uncertain

at this time. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts from

the National Weather Service forecast office in Caribou for the

latest information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$