Massive Hurricane Lee (Category 2) Continues Lumbering Northward

000

WTNT33 KNHC 140247

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  35

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF

ATLANTIC CANADA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.0N 67.7W

ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF BERMUDA

ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the

coast of New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,

including Grand Manan Island.  A Hurricane Watch has also been

issued for the coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour.

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for

the coast of New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort

Lawrence.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast

of Nova Scotia from north of Digby eastward to Onslow, then westward

and northward to Fort Lawrence.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been

issued for the southeast coast of Nova Scotia from north of Medway

Harbour to Porter’s Lake.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Stonington, ME to the U.S./Canada border

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, 

including Grand Manan Island

* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Watch Hill, RI to Stonington, ME

* Block Island

* Martha's Vineyard

* Nantucket

* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence

* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence

* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to

Porter’s Lake

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Cape Cod Bay

* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the

next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic

Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located

near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 67.7 West.  Lee is moving toward

the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A generally northward motion and an 

increase in forward speed are expected through Friday.  On the 

forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda 

Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New

England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but 

Lee is expected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the 

next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265

miles (425 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter 

aircraft is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda starting 

early Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of 

Down East Maine and in the Hurricane Watch area in Atlantic Canada 

on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of 

coastal New England and Atlantic Canada in the Tropical Storm Watch 

area beginning Friday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft

Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft

Nantucket...2-4 ft

Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft

Boston Harbor...1-3 ft

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft

Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft

Long Island Sound...1-3 ft

Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft

Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the

wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser

Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,

Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the

east coast of the United States and are beginning to reach Atlantic

Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee could produce rainfall amounts

of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday

into early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce

rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across

portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and

Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream

flooding.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

184 

WTNT43 KNHC 140248

TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  35

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft have

been investigating Lee this evening.  They found that the central

pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and that the

hurricane still had concentric eyewalls, but these were partially

open over portions of the western quadrant.  The Air Force

plane measured  700 mb flight-level winds as high as 105 kt and

the NOAA plane found winds as high as 107 kt at a flight level of

8000 ft.  Tail Doppler radar velocities from the NOAA plane were

near 100 kt at elevations of 0.5 km.  These observations support

maintaining the intensity at 90 kt for this advisory.  Satellite

imagery also suggests that the eyewall is not fully closed but

there is fairly intense inner-core convection.

There has been a (likely temporary) decrease in forward speed and

the initial motion is just west of due north or 350/8 kt.  The

steering scenario for the hurricane is essentially unchanged from

the previous few advisories.  A 500-mb trough moving into the

northeastern U.S. and a mid-level ridge near eastern Atlantic

Canada should cause Lee to move generally northward at a faster

forward speed during the next couple of days.  A slight bend to the

left is likely around 48 hours while the tropical cyclone interacts

with the trough.  This will likely bring the center of Lee close to

southeastern New England late Friday before it moves near or over

Maine and Atlantic Canada later in the weekend.  The official track

forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows both the

simple and corrected dynamical consensus guidance.

Over the next couple of days, Lee will encounter significantly 

increasing vertical wind shear and somewhat drier mid- to low-level 

air.  Sea surface temperatures along the projected track decrease 

sharply north of around 40N latitude. These conditions should cause 

weakening, but since the hurricane has such a large circulation, the 

weakening will likely be slow.  The NHC intensity forecast is near 

or above the highest available model guidance.  Notwithstanding, 

there is still high confidence that Lee will be a large and 

dangerous cyclone when it moves near or over land on Saturday.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed

probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are

likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is

because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than

average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed

probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are

expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical

Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in 

portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova 

Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that 

area.  Heavy rainfall in these areas may produce localized urban 

and small stream flooding from Friday night into Saturday night. 

3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding

in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and

Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch has

been issued.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible over a large portion of

coastal New England, including Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's

Vineyard, Block Island, and portions of Atlantic Canada, where a

Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 28.0N  67.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  14/1200Z 29.6N  68.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  15/0000Z 31.9N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

 36H  15/1200Z 34.8N  67.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  16/0000Z 37.7N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 60H  16/1200Z 41.0N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  17/0000Z 44.0N  66.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  18/0000Z 49.4N  60.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  19/0000Z 53.7N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Pasch

11:59 PM ADT Wednesday 13 September 2023

Tropical storm force winds of 60 gusting to 90 and possibly 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee may occur over the above areas Saturday.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

11:59 PM ADT Wednesday 13 September 2023

Tropical storm force winds of 60 gusting to 90 and possibly 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee may occur over the above areas Saturday.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

11:56 PM ADT Wednesday 13 September 2023

There is a slight possibility that Hurricane Lee could bring near-hurricane conditions.

Hurricane conditions possible Saturday. Winds could gust as high as 120 km/h.

Hurricane conditions include (A) sustained winds near 120 km/h or more, and/or (B) significantly elevated water levels and dangerous surf along the coast.

By nature, a hurricane also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

11:54 PM ADT Wednesday 13 September 2023

There is a slight possibility that Hurricane Lee could bring near-hurricane conditions.

Hurricane conditions possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Winds gusting up to 120 km/h are possible.

Hurricane conditions include (A) sustained winds near 120 km/h or more, and/or (B) significantly elevated water levels and dangerous surf along the coast.

By nature, a hurricane also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1019 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

MEZ001-002-004>006-140600-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Piscataquis-

Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,

Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,

Mars Hill, Ashland, Baxter St Park, Chamberlain Lake,

Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Millinocket, East Millinocket,

Patten, Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, and Smyrna Mills

1019 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

...HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE...

Showers including some areas of heavy rain will continue across

central and northern Maine including Piscataquis, Northern

Penobscot and Aroostook Counties overnight. Ponding on roadways

and minor flooding of low lying areas is possible. If you will be

out, drive with caution remain alert for water over the roads.

$$

Bloomer

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Caribou ME

956 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

MEZ029-030-141000-

/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230915T1600Z/

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

956 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet expected in the

  surf zone.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will

  make for hazardous surf conditions. Large waves can present a

  danger to people on rocks above the water. Stay away from rock

  outcrops along the shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves

  can easily sweep people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in

the advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach

erosion.

&&

$$

MCB

9:51 PM ADT Wednesday 13 September 2023

The next information statement will be issued at 3:00 AM ADT.

For Hurricane Lee - this is a Saturday event for the strongest impacts with lingering weaker conditions on Sunday.  

Approaching category-1 hurricane becoming post-tropical at landfall in eastern Maine or southern New Brunswick.

1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 27.9 degrees North 67.7 degrees West.

About 575 km south-southwest of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 165 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North-northwest around 17 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 954 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane Lee is now on its northward course toward the Maritime provinces and the state of Maine. This hurricane is quite large and is expected to grow in size as it approaches.  On the other hand the intensity (which is based on the peak winds in the storm) will be decreasing and is expected to be just below hurricane status when it is passing just west of Yarmouth Saturday afternoon. 

This timing and location will likely change over the next 3 days but that is the official most likely scenario at this stage.  The centre of Lee could make landfall anywhere from Downeast Maine to western Nova Scotia as a strong tropical storm or post-tropical low. 

Our latest assessment is that western Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick stand to see the most wind while western New Brunswick northward into parts of the Bas-St-Laurent and Gaspesie regions of Quebec are at risk of the heaviest rainfall. High waves and elevated water levels will be more widespread due to the large size of the storm - the most impacted areas likely covering much of the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and the Fundy coast of New Brunswick.  

NOTE: In addition to Lee, the Maritime provinces may experience bands of training downpours travelling from southwest to northeast.  These bands are notoriously difficult to predict but it is important to understand there is a flooding risk with these bands well before the arrival of Lee. These complex effects are indirectly related to the hurricane.  Additional rainfall from Lee itself could exacerbate the risk of flooding. 

 

a. Wind.

Breakdown of winds and impacts will appear here in later bulletins. Most likely region for worst impacts: western Nova Scotia as well as Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County region of New Brunswick. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches will be posted for some areas at midnight tonight for possible gusts to 120 km/h (hurricane-force) Saturday. 

b. Rainfall.

Breakdown of rainfall and impacts will appear here in later bulletins. Most likely region for heaviest rain: western New Brunswick and northward into Quebec.   

c. Surge/Waves.

Breakdown of surge/waves and impacts will appear here in later bulletins. Most likely region for worst impacts: Atlantic coastal mainland Nova Scotia and areas around the Bay of Fundy.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Greatest waves and winds expected around the Bay of Fundy, Gulf of Maine and southwest Maritimes marine district.

Forecaster: Fogarty/Clements

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

Lee Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 34

National Weather Service Caribou ME  AL132023

529 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

MEZ030-140530-

/O.CON.KCAR.HU.A.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

Coastal Washington-

529 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED

    - Eastport

    - Machias

    - Cherryfield

* WIND

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind

        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph

        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday morning

          until early Sunday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58

      to 73 mph

        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical

          storm force.

        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be

          underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.

        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind

          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant

        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with

          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few

          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door

          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.

          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.

        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater

          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several

          fences and roadway signs blown over.

        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within

          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,

          and access routes impassable.

        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more

          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* STORM SURGE

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible

        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet

          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas

        - Window of concern: Friday afternoon until Saturday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm

      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground

        - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot

          above ground.

        - PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for

          storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable

          areas.

        - ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to

          leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

        - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along

          immediate shorelines and in low-lying areas along rivers

          that are tidal influenced.

        - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become

          overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous

          in places where surge water begins to cover roads, this

          includes Deer Isle Causeway, Main Street in Machias, and

          Starboard Cove road.

        - High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will make for

          hazardous surf conditions.

        - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, and

          piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally

          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for

      moderate flooding rain

        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for

          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues

          are possible.

        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area

          vulnerable to flooding.

        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take

          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant

        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations

          and rescues.

        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with

          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,

          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,

          creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.

        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken

          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas

          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and

          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on

          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.

          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge

          closures.

* TORNADO

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected

        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms

          with gusty winds may still occur.

        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect

          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest

          tornado situation.

        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None

        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:

    - https://maine.gov/mema/hazards/natural-hazards/hurricanes

$$

000

FXUS61 KCAR 140117

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

917 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will then cross the region late tonight through

early Thursday. High pressure returns on Friday. Hurricane Lee

approaches the area Friday night into Saturday, makes landfall

on the coast Saturday night and moves northeast into the

Canadian Maritimes Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

9:15 PM Update...An area of heavy showers has been streaming

through southern Piscataquis County supported by divergence

aloft between the tropical upper anticylcone to the southeast

and the trough lifting up to the west. Issued a flood advisory

for this area and updated forecast with showers, heavy at

times, in this region. Raised temps a couple degrees too.

METSAT imagery shows a fairly deep upper trough over the Great

Lakes region with a occlusion moving into the area tonight. The

occlusion features fairly deep moisture with PWs over 1.5

inches...near climatological maximums for the date. The

approaching upper trough will provide good lift and some heavier

showers are possible tonight. There is also some elevated

instability that could produce isolated thunderstorms tonight.

Overall QPF generally varies from a half inch to an inch and

much of the area remains in a marginal risk in the WPC ERO.

Storm motions suggest that heavier showers could dump a quick

inch or two by Thursday morning. A low level jet will move

parallel to the front later this evening into the overnight

hours. The clouds and rainfall will ensure a minimal decrease

in temperatures tonight with high humidity. The high humidity

and dense low level moisture will also produce areas of fog

again tonight. Fog is most likely in high terrain and along the

coast.

For Thursday, precip will exit the area in the morning from west

to east. Clouds will be slower to exit, especially in eastern

zones. Behind the occlusion, there is little cold air advection

early in the morning. A post-frontal trough later in the morning

into midday brings strong cold air advection when looking at

H925 and H850. Since the colder air arrives later, temperatures

will again reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Humidity will drop

off in the afternoon with drier air finally reaching Washington

County by late day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A brief period of high pressure will build into the area

Thursday night into Friday, leading to clearing skies. With

cooler air in place behind the cold front, low temperatures

Thursday night will fall into the lower 50s Downeast to the

upper 40s across the north. On Friday, lower relative humidity

due to dewpoints down in the lower 50s and high temps up into

the upper 60s will yield an autumn-like crispness to the air.

These pleasant conditions will be short lived as Hurricane Lee

continues to track up into the northern New England and Atlantic

Canada area. The outer rain bands from Lee may begin to push

into our area late Friday night, though differences in timing

continue to persist across guidance with the Canadian not

bringing any rain bands into the area until later Saturday

morning. Though the exact track of the tropical cyclone remains

uncertain, there is increasing confidence in the likelihood that

our area will experience some sort of impact from Lee. These

impacts will mostly fall under wind and rain, as well as coastal

flooding. More on coastal flooding can be found in the Tides

section below.

Heavy rainfall is likely with this system, especially on the

northern and western sides of the cyclone. Due to this relation

to the center of the storm, there is still some uncertainty in

location of the heaviest rainfall. Heavy rainfall is

increasingly likely closer to the coast as well as east through

Washington county, though if the track of Lee shifts further

west this impact could be more focused on coastal Hancock

county. Recent rainfall and saturated grounds leads to a higher

flash flood potential. More can be found in the Hydrology

section below.

Similar uncertainties remain for highest wind chances. Highest

wind speeds will depend on the speed and track of the storm, and

direction will also be closely tied to exactly where the storm

passes by. Impacts from these high winds in particular include

downed trees, as leaves remain on trees and the ground has been

softened by the wet summer thus far. Additionally, should Lee

track further west, winds will have a southerly component to

them which is opposite the direction of usual strong wind storms

in our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Depending on the forward speed of Lee, conditions may linger

well into Saturday night. Additionally, since wind and rain

threats extend well outside of the center of the storm, even as

Lee moves north and east out of our forecast area.

Heading into Sunday and into early next week, a shortwave will

quickly push out of Ontario and through the New England area,

bringing another round of rain showers across our forecast area.

Ridging may begin to return to the region by the middle of the

week as the shortwave quickly exits into the Canadian Maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions due to cig/vis are expected

through tonight. Embedded thunder is possible with a cold front

tonight into early Thursday. Low level wind shear is possible

ahead of the front tonight with southwest winds of over 35 kt at

FL020. Conditions will improve to MVFR Thursday morning and then

to VFR Thursday afternoon. Light winds under 10kts will shift

from southerly tonight to westerly on Thursday.

SHORT TERM:

Thurs night - Fri eve: VFR across all sites. Light W winds

shifting N.

Fri night - Sat night: Conditions falling to MVFR/IFR from

south to north as Lee moves northwards, bringing lower ceilings

and moderate to heavy rainfall. Increasing winds originally N

and shifting NE as the cyclone approaches. Direction Sat night

could be NW with a slight chance of shifting more SE depending

on cyclone track. Winds 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts possible

dependent on exact cyclone position.

Sun - Mon: Conditions improving to VFR from south to north,

though MVFR may hang on a bit longer across northern terminals

with lingering showers and low clouds. NW flow 10 to 15 kts

gusting to 25 kts, gradually subsiding and shifting W by Mon.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Fog will remain over the waters until Thursday

morning when a cold front will drive it out. Southerly winds

will shift to westerly for Thursday afternoon. Speeds will

remain under 15 kts and tend to decrease again Thursday. Long

period south swell emanating from Hurricane Lee will slowly

increase towards 5 to 6 feet by later Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Seas of 5 to 6 ft will continue to increase through

the day on Friday ahead of Hurricane Lee, with long period S to

SE swell of around 15 seconds. Seas will continue to increase

into the weekend, though peak sea heights will depend some on

the exact path of Lee which remains uncertain at this time.

Forecast for now is for over 20 ft seas over the coastal waters

through Sat. Wind forecasts also remain uncertain as they are

based on exact storm track, especially in terms of wind

direction. Wind gusts will approach gale force by Friday

evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rain is falling on extremely wet soils for this time of year

with root level soil moisture in the 98-99th percentile for

September. Going into this weekend the concern looks towards

Hurricane Lee and where exactly the system tracks. This week`s

rainfall will prime the environment for rapid runoff increasing

the flash flood risk. Any rain from Lee would likely cause rapid

rises along smaller brooks and streams, while mainstem rivers

are likely to remain in banks unless amounts exceed 5 inches.

Amounts up to 5 inches are certainly possible and the potential

for flash flooding and washouts continues to increase for

Saturday. Where the heaviest rain falls will depend on the exact

track, but all of eastern Maine remains in a Slight Risk in the

WPC ERO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Confidence is high that we will see an increase in wave

heights, sneaker waves and rip current risks by mid to late

week. As a result, we have issued a High Surf Advisory into

Friday morning that includes the rip current statement.

The Moon is approaching "New Moon" (September 14th) so

high tides will be higher but not the month`s highest tides.

We are concerned about coastal flooding for three high tide

cycles:

- Near midnight Friday night

- Near noon Saturday

- Near midnight Saturday night

The current official NHC track suggests that the noon Saturday

high tide may feature the greatest surge.

Since the track has moved further west and peak surge could line

up with the noon Saturday high tide, the scope and severity of

storm surge impacts could be significant.

This means flooding issues in Machias, Eastport, Lubec, along

the Deer Isle Causeway, Stonington, and other causeways crossing

tidal-impacted waterways. Heavy rainfall will acerbate the

potential for coastal infrastructure impacts. Key in mind that a

tropical storm of this magnitude has no analogy since at least

1969 or earlier for Downeast.

A more westward track than currently forecast brings flooding

concerns up to Bangor on the Penobscot River.

Of lesser impact, very large long period waves will most likely

cause significant splashover and potential damage on roads

exposed to the open ocean such as Seawall Rd on MDI and coastal

roads on the Schoodic Peninsula.

In terms of public safety, wave watching from exposed rocks

along the coast such as Thunder Hole at Acadia will be

exceedingly dangerous at high tide on Saturday.

The latest on Hurricane Lee can be found at the National

Hurricane Center website www.nhc.noaa.gov.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Hurricane Watch for MEZ029-030.

     Tropical Storm Watch for MEZ015>017.

     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Friday for MEZ029-030.

MARINE...Hurricane Watch for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...MCW

Short Term...AStrauser

Long Term...AStrauser

Aviation...MCW/AStrauser

Marine...MCW/AStrauser

Hydrology...MCW

Tides/Coastal Flooding...MCW

Lee Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 34

National Weather Service Caribou ME  AL132023

529 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

MEZ016-140530-

/O.CON.KCAR.TR.A.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

Interior Hancock-

529 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED

    - Orrington

* WIND

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind

        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39

      to 57 mph

        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm

          force.

        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be

          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.

        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind

          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored

          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.

        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or

          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees

          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown

          over.

        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within

          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving

          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.

        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible

        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet

          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas

        - Window of concern: Friday afternoon until Saturday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm

      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground

        - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot

          above ground.

        - PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for

          storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable

          areas.

        - ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to

          leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

        - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along

          immediate shorelines and in low-lying areas along rivers

          that are tidal influenced.

        - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become

          overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous

          in places where surge water begins to cover roads, this

          includes low areas around Kenduskeag Plaza and Bangor

          Waterfront

        - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, and

          piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally

          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for

      moderate flooding rain

        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for

          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues

          are possible.

        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area

          vulnerable to flooding.

        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take

          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant

        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations

          and rescues.

        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with

          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,

          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,

          creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.

        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken

          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas

          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and

          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on

          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.

          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge

          closures.

* TORNADO

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected

        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms

          with gusty winds may still occur.

        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect

          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest

          tornado situation.

        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None

        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:

    - https://maine.gov/mema/hazards/natural-hazards/hurricanes

$$