Winter Storm Sage

00

FXUS61 KCAR 130336

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1136 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will persist over the area through Monday. Low

pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday then

intensify as it lifts north toward the Gulf of Maine Monday

night through Tuesday. Low pressure will back southeastward

Tuesday night through Wednesday. Low pressure will continue east

into the open Atlantic on Thursday as high pressure builds over

our region......

.....SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Surface high pressure continues to drift across the Canadian

Maritimes provinces Monday night as upper level energy dives

southeast from the Great Lakes toward the mid Atlantic region

by early Tuesday morning. This will result in dry weather

Monday night. As the flow in the lower levels becomes more

southeasterly with time, this will begin to advect in some

lower clouds toward the coast later Monday night.

On Tuesday, the attention the turns to the evolving east coast

storm system. There is still plenty of uncertainty in the

deterministic guidance and ensemble data with regard to the

ultimate track of this system and just how far north any heavier

precipitation bands make it into the Caribou forecast area.

However, there has been a bit of a southeast trend noted with

the primary low. This makes for a lower than average forecast

confidence. Given the uncertainty, and the fact that this would

still be more of a later fourth period into fifth period event

for our area, and after collaboration with neighboring office

and WPC, will hold the course and not issue any winter weather

headlines at this time.

At time, it appears the greatest potential for accumulating

snow will be across interior Downeast areas, and up toward the

Bangor area. Along the immediate coast, potential for some

mixing with rain, which could limit accumulations somewhat

there. Further north, amounts are expected to drop off quite

rapidly, especially north of the Katahdin region.

As the storm system does develop northeast winds will begin to

increase later Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially Downeast,

where gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible at times.

By Wednesday, the low begins to finally move east to the south of

Nova Scotia and out into the open Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As the storm system continues to head out into the open

Atlantic Wednesday night expect drier conditions to move in

behind the departing low. It will still remain rather breezy

across the area through Wednesday evening before winds begin to

diminish late. Dry weather continues into Thursday. There are

indications that a weak cold front will back down across the

area later Thursday into Thursday night. Heading into Friday and

next weekend, EC and GFS are showing the potential for another

500 MB closed low to head across the great lakes region with

another surface low(s) approaching the region Saturday through

Sunday. This could bring snow or rain to the region by next

weekend. High temperatures through the period will be above

normal for this time of year.......

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Gray ME

327 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.Rapidly strengthening low pressure will approach southern New

England Monday night, with snow overspreading the area through

Tuesday morning. Greatest snowfall will likely fall at higher

terrain across the Monadnocks, Sunapee, the Ossippees, and White

Mountains. At lower elevations, snow may be heavy and wet, resulting

in possible snow load impacts and possible power outages. Gusty

northeast to north winds Tuesday could accentuate power outage risk.

MEZ012>014-018>028-033-NHZ010-012>014-130730-

/O.CON.KGYX.WS.A.0007.230314T0900Z-230315T1800Z/

Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-

Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-

Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal

Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Strafford-Eastern

Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-

Including the cities of Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills,

Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New

Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Athens,

Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra, Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Hollis,

Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington,

Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Greene,

Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls,

Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo,

Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo,

Winterport, Unity, Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery,

Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth,

Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin,

Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle,

Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland,

Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport,

Searsmont, Lincolnville, Bridgton, Harrison, Naples, Barrington,

Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury,

Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow,

Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye,

Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, and Seabrook

327 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12

  inches possible, with locally higher amounts. Northeast winds

  could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine.

  Portions of central and southern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Significant snowfall and periods of heavy snowfall rates

  will combine with low visibility to create very dangerous driving

  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday

  morning and evening commutes. The strong winds and weight of snow

  on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power

  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely

necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden

changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the

motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your

destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially

cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is

winterized and in good working order.

&&

$$

Tubbs

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

324 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-130730-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

324 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,

Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley

Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Low pressure will slowly track northeast along the Eastern Seaboard

early to mid next week. This system will bring accumulating snowfall

to the region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, along with

gusty winds. Latest model trends indicate the best potential of

significant snowfall across Downeast and Central portions of the

region during this time with lesser amounts across the north. Please

monitor latest forecast trends with this potential event.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

8:54 PM ADT Sunday 12 March 2023

Special weather statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Potential winter storm to affect the region mid-week.

Locations: most of Nova Scotia.

Time span: Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

Remarks: Snow is expected to spread across Nova Scotia from west to east Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday in eastern parts of the province. Snow may mix with or change over to rain for mainland Nova Scotia.

While it is too soon to provide specific details, the potential exists for strong winds accompanied by significant amounts of snow.

Additional information will be provided as the details become more certain.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

8:56 PM ADT Sunday 12 March 2023

Special weather statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Potential winter storm to affect the region mid-week.

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Time span: Tuesday evening into Thursday.

Remarks: Snow is expected to begin Tuesday evening and taper to flurries on Thursday.

While it is too soon to provide specific details, the potential exists for strong winds accompanied by significant amounts of snow.

Additional information will be provided as the details become more certain.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

8:56 PM ADT Sunday 12 March 2023

Special weather statement in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Potential winter storm to affect the region mid-week.

Locations: most of New Brunswick.

Time span: Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

Remarks: Snow is expected to spread across New Brunswick from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday in eastern parts of the province.

While it is too soon to provide specific details, the potential exists for strong winds accompanied by significant amounts of snow.

Additional information will be provided as the details become more certain.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.