Remembrance Day Storm Update Four

000
WTNT34 KNHC 110544
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
200 AM AST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SEAN MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE SEAN IS ABSORBED
BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 110236
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
1100 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011

SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE PROVIDED MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY
OF SEAN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON ONE HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OF
ABOUT 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS HAS DISPLACED THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AS SEEN IN RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH 00Z DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE NHC
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. BY 24 HOURS...SEAN SHOULD BE
ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

RECENT DVORAK AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/11. THIS RIGHTWARD JOG SHOULD BE TEMPORARY
HOWEVER...AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTHEAST...OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE
TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 31.5N  68.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  11/1200Z 33.6N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Remembrance Day Storm Update Three

000
WTNT34 KNHC 102032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
500 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011

...SEAN MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...
....AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE SEAN
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY. 

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 102035
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
500 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF SEAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE APPEARING
TO WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
AIRCRAFT MISSION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SEAN FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 63 KT...SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF 52 KT...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 983 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
55 KT. THE CHANCES OF SEAN BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING DUE TO THE DEGRADED STRUCTURE. SINCE THE MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. BY
TOMORROW...WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND THIS IS ALREADY BEING HERALDED
BY THE ERODING CIRRUS OVERFLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

SEAN IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING AT ABOUT
11 KT...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY IT MIGHT BE WOBBLING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
OF THAT ESTIMATE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AS SEAN PASSES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A
BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS BE NUDGED IN
THAT DIRECTION. IN A DAY OR SO...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
OVERTAKE SEAN AND ABSORB THE SYSTEM. THE NEW FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW SEAN DISSIPATED AS EARLY AS 24 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 30.9N  69.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 32.5N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  11/1800Z 36.1N  62.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  12/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Pictou County
3:49 PM AST Thursday 10 November 2011
Rainfall warning for
Pictou County continued

Rainfall amounts of up to 90 millimetres by Friday evening.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system near St James bay will move to lie over Northern Quebec by Friday morning. A trough extending from the low will approach the Maritimes tonight. As this trough approaches it will absorb moisture from tropical storm Sean which will be in its dissipating stage well south of Nova Scotia. Rainfall is expected to begin later this evening in the southwest and continue through Friday. Rainfall amounts up to 90 millimetres are currently forecast for mainland Nova Scotia with locally higher amounts possible along parts of the Atlantic coast. Cape Breton is forecast to receive up to 60 millimetres of rain by Saturday morning. Southeast winds from this system are expected to reach gusts of up to 80 km/h over most areas. Les Suetes winds up to 120 km/h are forecast for Margaree Harbour to Bay St Lawrence of Cape Breton in Lee of the Highlands.

Additionally..Higher than normal water levels and rough surf are expected along the eastern shore of Nova Scotia and Atlantic coast of Cape Breton Friday evening.
Gros Morne
3:44 PM NST Thursday 10 November 2011
Wind warning for
Gros Morne issued

Southeasterly wind gusts of 100 km/h are expected along the coast Friday evening.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A trough of low pressure extending from an intense low pressure system near Hudson Bay will affect Newfoundland on Friday. Strong southeasterly winds gusting to 90 km/h will develop in the Wreckhouse overnight and will increase to 160 km/h by Friday evening. Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h are also expected to develop along exposed areas of the west coast Friday evening.

As this trough approaches it will absorb moisture from tropical storm Sean which is tracking well south of Nova Scotia. Heavy rain is expected to begin in Southwestern Newfoundland Friday morning with rainfall accumulations of up to 60 millimetres by Saturday morning.

Fredericton and Southern York County
3:33 PM AST Thursday 10 November 2011
Rainfall warning for
Fredericton and Southern York County issued

Near 50 millimetres of rain expected tonight and Friday.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A strong cold front will approach from the west tonight and track across New Brunswick on Friday and Friday evening. Tropical moisture well to the north of tropical storm Sean will be drawn into this front giving significant amounts of rain to most of New Brunswick tonight and Friday.

Very mild air ahead of the cold front will be replaced with much colder air behind it. Much of Central and Northern New Brunswick will likely see some snow flurry activity overnight Friday night as a result.
WOCN31 CWHX 101845
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3:09 PM AST Thursday
10 November 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For tropical storm Sean.

      This is the final planned statement by the Canadian hurricane
      Centre on this storm.

      Tropical storm Sean expected to merge with strong cold front
      Well south of Nova Scotia - no direct affects expected.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
It still appears that Sean will become absorbed by a strong cold
front moving off the U.S. eastern seaboard.  The front will tap into
some extra moisture from the storm that could enhance rainfalls over
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.  However, the wind circulation of Sean
is expected to become fully absorbed into the southerly winds
associated with the front.  A tighter wind/pressure gradient may
cross the Grand Banks off Newfoundland late Friday or early Saturday
related to the remnant of Sean, but most of the wind will be from the
front.  We do not intend to issue any additional bulletins from the
Canadian Hurricane Centre unless there is a dramatic change.

Special weather statements and warnings can be found at
weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/warnings and storm track information (from the
Miami hurricane centre) at weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in
lower case).

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/FOGARTYFredericton and Southern York County

Remembrance Day Storm Update Two

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101431
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
1000 AM EST THU NOV 10 2011

...SEAN NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...
...AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND SEAN COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
CYCLONE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 101432
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
1000 AM EST THU NOV 10 2011

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH SEAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE...WITH A MORE
COMPACT APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE THAN YESTERDAY. DVORAK ESTIMATES
REMAIN THE SAME...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN
THE CYCLONE AROUND 1800 UTC TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL WINDS. SEAN STILL HAS A DAY OR SO OF MARGINAL WATER
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE SHEAR LEFT TO INTENSIFY. SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD NOTABLY INCREASE AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING OF THE STORM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SIX
HOURS AGO...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SEAN COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
FORECAST.

THE STORM HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVING ABOUT 035/6.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK CONTINUING WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING THE CYCLONE PASSING A FAIR
DISTANCE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  STRONG SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND
A COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH SEAN BECOMING ABSORBED BY THAT FRONT WITHIN
48 HOURS.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SEAN DISSIPATED A LITTLE
FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 30.4N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 31.8N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 34.7N  65.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 39.0N  60.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  12/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
10:49 AM AST Thursday 10 November 2011
Rainfall warning for
Halifax County - east of Porters Lake continued

Rainfall amounts of up to 100 millimetres by Friday evening.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system north of the Great Lakes will move to lie over Hudson Bay by Friday morning. A trough extending from the low will approach the Maritimes tonight. As this trough approaches it will absorb moisture from tropical storm Sean which will be in its dissipating stage well south of Nova Scotia. Rainfall is expected to begin tonight and continue through Friday. Rainfall amounts up to 100 millimetres are currently forecast for mainland Nova Scotia with locally higher amounts possible along parts of the Atlantic coast. Cape Breton is forecast to receive up to 40 millimetres of rain by Friday evening. Southeast winds from this system are expected to reach gusts of up to 80 km/h and up to 120 km/h from the Margaree Harbour to Bay St Lawrence area of Cape Breton. A rainfall warning may be required for Cape Breton with further rainfall amounts possible Friday night however forecast amounts are currently under warning criteria.

Channel-Port aux Basques - Burgeo
10:45 AM NST Thursday 10 November 2011
Wreckhouse wind warning for
Channel-Port aux Basques - Burgeo continued

Wind gusts of 140 km/h are expected in the Wreckhouse area on Friday.

This is a warning that potentially hazardous winds are expected in the Wreckhouse area of Southwestern Newfoundland. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A trough of low pressure extending from an intense low pressure system near Hudson's bay will affect Newfoundland on Friday. Strong southeasterly winds gusting to 90 km/h will develop in the Wreckhouse overnight and will increase to 140 km/h on Friday. Strong wind gusts in the Wreckhouse area are expected to diminish overnight Friday as the wind shifts to southwesterly.

WOCN31 CWHX 101245
Tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9:04 AM AST Thursday
10 November 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Newfoundland
=new= Nova Scotia.

      For tropical storm Sean.

      The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM AST.

      We are currently monitoring tropical storm Sean which is
      Expected to merge with an approaching cold front south of
      Atlantic Canada.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Tropical storm Sean may attain hurricane status today as it moves
northeastward to the west of Bermuda.  A strong cold front is
approaching the storm from the west and is expected to
Quickly absorb it and extract the moisture northward - falling over
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tomorrow.  Current indications are that
the wind circulation of the storm will become indistinct as it
approaches the southern marine forecast district.  We will assess
computer models today and may issue a detailed forecast this
afternoon if we expect the storm circulation to affect the marine
forecast region more directly than is currently indicated.
Regardless, high wind, heavy rainfall and unseasonably warm
temperatures will overspread Atlantic Canada and offshore waters
tomorrow.

Special weather statements and warnings can be found at
weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/warnings and storm track information at
weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case).

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/FOGARTY
WOCN14 CWHX 100841
Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 4:41 AM
AST Thursday 10 November 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
      New Brunswick.

      Heavy rain expected for southern sections of New Brunswick.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system over north Eastern Ontario will move to lie
over Hudsons bay by Friday morning.  A trough extending from the low
will approach New Brunswick this evening.  As the trough approaches
it will absorb moisture from the dissipating tropical storm Sean.
We are currently forecasting rainfall amounts of 30 to 40 millimetres
along southern sections of the province.  These amounts are expected
to accumulate beginning this evening until Friday evening.  Higher
amounts could be possible in these regions due to the convective
nature of the airmass.  Please monitor future forecasts and warnings
as there is a chance rainfall warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

End