Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 02/01/2024
000
FGUS71 KCAR 011121
ESFCAR
MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-081130-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
621 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE...
This is the third Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024,
issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This
outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the two
week period of February 1st through February 15th, 2024.
The potential for ice jam flooding is Normal across all basins
with ice growth continuing on the rivers. The potential for open
water flooding is Below Normal across all basins with above
normal streamflows.
...NORTHERN BASINS...
SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 10-16 inches with isolated higher
amounts
WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 3-5 inches with isolated
higher amounts
STREAM FLOWS: Near Normal.
RIVER ICE: St. John and Aroostook River`s are 85-95% frozen.
Other smaller rivers are 70-95% frozen. Ice varies between snow
covered frazil, significant jumbled surface ice to sheet ice. Ice
is laminar underneath. Several small leads and some bank rot.
Estimated ice thickness 3-9 inches. Noted by snowmobile, ice
fishing and wildlife activity.
...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS...
SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 5-10 inches.
WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 1-3 inches.
STREAM FLOWS: Normal to Slightly Above Normal.
RIVER ICE: Northern stretches of the Penobscot and Piscataquis
rivers are 80-90% ice covered. Central to Southern stretches are
40-55% covered. Many openings due to tributaries and dam
discharges. Frazil ice, jumbled ice and some sheet ice are noted.
Ice is laminar underneath. Estimated thickness less than 1 inch to
as much as 6 inches. Minimal wildlife and human activity on the
ice.
...DOWNEAST BASINS...
SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 1-6 inches.
WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 0.5-1.5 inches.
STREAM FLOWS: Normal to Above Normal.
RIVER ICE: Above dams the rivers are generally 100% ice covered in
mainly sheet ice or jumbled frazil. Overall ice cover is 60-80%.
Estimated ice thickness less than 1 inch to as much as 7 inches.
Minimal wildlife and human activity on the ice.
For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be
in graphical format on our website
www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook
...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
A strong El Nino continues. The El Nino is forecast to remain and
then transition to ENSO-Neutral conditions during April-June
2024. The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) observed along the Nino 3.4
region was +1.8C. This is a slight decrease from the +1.9C value
during October-December 2023. Above normal sea surface
temperature (SST) anomalies were decreasing more notably across
the east central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The jet stream pattern is forecast to change some according to the
latest medium range and ensemble guidance. The Pacific North
American (PNA) is forecast to remain slightly positive to near
neutral...and the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic
Oscillation (AO) are forecast to transition from positive to near
neutral. A transition to near neutral NAO/AO with a slightly
positive PNA would favor the northern branch of the jet remaining
somewhat more dominant with increased chances for some blocking but
with a limited extent of cross polar flow. This setup also favors
deeper moisture generally remaining more suppressed to the south of
Maine. There is the chance a low system with some deeper moisture
could still approach sometime during week two while the El Nino
remains strong but any details remain uncertain at this time.
The official 6 to 14 day outlook from NOAA`s Climate Prediction
Center for 5-13 February 2024 is in general agreement as it calls
for forecast temperatures leaning above normal short term then
transitioning to likely above normal longer term. Precipitation is
forecast to be leaning or likely below normal near term then
potentially below normal in longer term.
$$
Sinko
posted by Advackia at 8:34 PM
0 comments
