Possible Severe Weather Outbreak
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
1016 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
MEZ018-019-023-024-NHZ007>015-271430-
/O.CON.KGYX.HT.Y.0002.230727T1500Z-230728T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGYX.HT.Y.0003.230728T1500Z-230729T0000Z/
Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-Coastal York-Coastal
Cumberland-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern
Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-Western And
Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins
Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North
Windham, Gorham, Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery,
Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth,
Brunswick, Claremont, Cornish, Unity, Croydon, Goshen, Grantham,
Lempster, Newport, Charlestown, Boscawen, Canterbury, Concord,
Dunbarton, Loudon, Hooksett, Laconia, Gilford, Meredith, Barrington,
Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Gilsum,
Keene, Marlow, Sullivan, Surry, Jaffrey, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua,
Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead,
Exeter, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North
Hampton, Seabrook, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown,
Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare
1016 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
* WHAT...For the first Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 98
expected. For the second Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 98
expected.
* WHERE...Portions of southwest Maine. Portions of central and
southern New Hampshire.
* WHEN...For the first Heat Advisory, from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT
Thursday. For the second Heat Advisory, from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT
Friday.
* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
&&
$$
DS
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Gray ME
1014 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
.A storm system will approach the region Thursday bringing another
chance for showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. There is
the potential for storms to train or persist over the same area for
a period of time while producing torrential rainfall. With wet
ground conditions already in place, runoff will be rapid and capable
of producing flash flooding.
MEZ012-013-018>020-023>025-033-NHZ002>015-271415-
/O.CON.KGYX.FA.A.0017.230727T1600Z-230728T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Interior York-Central Interior
Cumberland-Androscoggin-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-
Interior Cumberland Highlands-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-
Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-
Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-Western And Central
Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills,
Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New
Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Hollis,
Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington,
Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Greene,
Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls,
Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Portland, Cape
Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic,
Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Bridgton, Harrison,
Naples, Berlin, Dummer, Milan, York Pond, Lancaster, Bethlehem,
Lincoln, Littleton, Sugar Hill, Thornton, Waterville Valley,
Woodstock, Jackson, North Conway, Albany, Conway, Chatham, Crawford
Notch, Lyme, Ashland, Ellsworth, Holderness, Plymouth, Rumney,
Wakefield, Bridgewater, Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro,
Moultonborough, Claremont, Cornish, Unity, Croydon, Goshen,
Grantham, Lempster, Newport, Charlestown, Boscawen, Canterbury,
Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon, Hooksett, Laconia, Gilford, Meredith,
Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham,
Madbury, Gilsum, Keene, Marlow, Sullivan, Surry, Jaffrey,
Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow,
Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye,
Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, Seabrook, Amherst, Milford,
Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare
1014 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of Maine, including the following areas,
Androscoggin, Central Interior Cumberland, Coastal Cumberland,
Coastal York, Interior Cumberland Highlands, Interior York,
Sagadahoc, Southern Franklin and Southern Oxford. Portions of New
Hampshire, including the following areas, Belknap, Cheshire,
Coastal Rockingham, Eastern Hillsborough, Interior Rockingham,
Merrimack, Northern Carroll, Northern Grafton, Southern Carroll,
Southern Coos, Southern Grafton, Strafford, Sullivan and Western
And Central Hillsborough.
* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Following morning showers and thunderstorms, additional
scattered and strong thunderstorms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall in excess of 2 inches in an hour.
Saturated soil conditions will cause rainfall to runoff into
rivers and streams, which remain high.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor the latest forecast and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
DS
000
FXUS61 KCAR 270155
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
955 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts south of the area tonight. Low pressure
will cross the region Thursday night. Another cold front will
move through the area on Saturday, with high pressure returning
on Sunday. A weak cold front will cross the area on Monday.......
..........Thursday...
Main concern on Thursday is potential for severe storms and
heavy rainfall Downeast. Low pressure and an existing MCS will
be moving east out of the Great Lakes and into our region. We
will be on the far NE end of the activity, with really only
Downeast being impacted by this system. The big question is does
the low pressure center and MCS track far enough north to bring
us into the more unstable and higher shear air south of the low
pressure, or do we stay far enough north to where we just get
some rain on the north side of the system. Right now, think that
the severe threat will mainly be from Bar Harbor to Bangor and
mainly from straight line winds, with more stable air being
north and east of this area. Heavy rain threat does extend
further east to Eastport though. Opted not to issue a flash
flood watch because antecedent conditions are actually fairly
dry over Downeast, with the recent heavier downpours having been
west of our area. Still, can`t rule out some local nuisance
flooding. Again, will need to watch closely to make sure the
system doesn`t track any further north than most models
indicate, which would put us in a higher shear and more unstable
environment and more susceptible to damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes. The far north could be unstable enough for a few
storms, especially if the system passes far enough south and
some breaks in the clouds can form. Don`t expect any stronger
storms in the north, though.
Lowered high temps some for Thursday due to increased
cloud cover, with low to mid 80s. Breezy from the S/SW and
muggy.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A trough will be sliding through during the evening hours
bringing an end to the thunderstorm activity. A weak wave of
low pressure will slide overhead and track into New Brunswick
before midnight. Showers will end by midnight with patchy fog to
develop across the area with the moist boundary layer and
shallow inversion developing. Expect this to be the last full
state muggy night with low to mid 60s and near full saturation
at the surface. Friday will be the last hot and humid day in
this long stretch of incredible humidity for the month of July.
A cold front will be approaching from the northwest on Friday
with strong westerly flow aloft. A piece of the big heat dome
will push overhead with 925mb temps warming to between +20C
north and +24C south. This will result in highs in the mid 80s
across the north and 89-92F highs in the Highlands, Bangor
region to interior Downeast. Dew points will increase to between
67-70F across the Downeast and Bangor will result in Heat Index
values 93-95F. We are just short of Heat Index Advisory criteria
so opted to hold off issuing one for now. There remains
significant uncertainty with much of the model guidance slowing
the arrival of the cold front. Have opted to keep slight chance
thunderstorms mainly confined to the northern 1/2 of the CWA for
Friday afternoon. If any storm can develop it will work with
decent SBCAPE but mid level lapse rates will be poor and the
surface forcing will be delayed. That being said we will have
decent shear in the 35-45kt range so anything that can develop
may become robust.
Friday night the front will begin its very slow push southeast
through Maine. Intially overnight expecting winds to shift west
before going northwest across the northern 1/3rd of the CWA. The
drier air with 50s dew points works into the North Woods in the
evening and then into the Caribou to Houlton area by daybreak
Saturday. Central Highlands into the Downeast expecting another
muggy night with upper 60s and high humidity.
Saturday expecting the front to sink south as a wave of low
pressure develops along it. Expecting a mostly cloudy day except
across the far north where the drier air is well in place. Showers
to increase in the AM and will begin to decrease by late day as
the wave of low pressure tracks east. There remains uncertainty
where the front will be and how much activity over the area.
Took a blend of operational runs and NBM to get the front
cleared of the CWA by late day. Bringing a complete end of the
humidity across the CWA by evening with northern areas seeing
dew points into the upper 40s by sunset........
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
312 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
MEZ010-015>017-029>031-271915-
Central Piscataquis-Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-
Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Southern Piscataquis-
312 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Interior DownEast Maine and Penobscot
Valley Maine.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
There is a marginal threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.
Storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall Thursday
afternoon into early evening.
Heat indices could reach into the mid 90s on Friday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
$$
posted by Advackia at 8:12 PM
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