WTNT33 KNHC 210259
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Warning between
Greenwich, CT to Flushing, NY and Flushing to Oyster Bay, NY.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode
Island, east to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including Block Island
and Martha's Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in
effect west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Manasquan Inlet,
New Jersey, including New York City.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings may be required on Saturday Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Henri is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through Saturday, with a
turn toward the north-northwest expected late Saturday or Saturday
night. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall
in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on
Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday
and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long
Island or southern New England.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the hurricane watch area late Saturday night or on
Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area late Saturday night and Sunday.
RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with
isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri
may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
Satellite imagery shows that Henri is becoming better organized
this evening, with the low-level center becoming more embedded in
the convective overcast and an increase in convective banding.
There has also been an increase in the anticyclonic outflow.
However, reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, as
the maximum winds remain about 60 kt to the southeast of the
elongated center and the central pressure is in the 994-996 mb
range.
Henri has turned northward, and the initial motion is now 010/8.
A deep-layer mid-latitude trough over the Appalachians and the Ohio
Valley will cut off into a closed low during the next 12-24 h,
while a ridge builds northward to the east and northeast of Henri.
This evolution should cause the storm to move north-northeastward
for 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest from
24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Henri over the
mid-Atlantic states or southern New England between 36-48 h. After
48 h, the cyclone should get caught up in the southern edge of the
westerlies and turn generally eastward across southern New England
and the Gulf of Maine. There has been little change in the
direction of the forecast guidance since the last advisory, but the
guidance is faster on this cycle through 48 h. Thus, the new track
forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, is faster than
the previous forecast through the 48 h point.
A combination of decreasing shear, improved organization, and
upper-level divergence associated with the trough to the west
should allow Henri to strengthen for the next 24 h or so, and the
new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt. After
24 h, the center should move over cooler water, and weakening
should start before landfall in the northeastern United States.
However, the cyclone is still expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity at landfall. After landfall, Henri should weaken quickly
and become post-tropical by the 72 h time. Dissipation is forecast
between 96-120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall
trend of the intensity guidance.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible
beginning late Saturday night or Sunday in western portions of Long
Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late Saturday night
or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a
Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are
possible late Saturday night or Sunday across portions of Rhode
Island and southeastern Massachusetts.
3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and
New England Sunday into Monday.
4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 32.3N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210102
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
902 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area overnight into Saturday
as Henri tracks north off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Henri will
approach southern New England Saturday night may come onshore in
southern New England Sunday or Sunday night. Henri will
dissipate as it tracks across our region Monday into Monday
night. High pressure will build over the area Tuesday into
Wednesday....
......SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our focus this weekend will be on the track and intensity of Henri
which will likely be off the Mid-Atlantic coast as a hurricane and
slowly tracking north toward southeastern New England Saturday
evening. The system will be guided north by a combination of a weak
upper trough digging from the Appalachians down toward the
southeastern states and a subtropical ridge poised to our east. We
will remain in a warm and humid air mass under an upper ridge
Saturday evening with a clear to partly cloudy sky over the north
and a mostly cloudy sky Downeast. Henri is expected to come onshore
in southern New England Sunday evening and from there slow down and
begin to weaken. The 11 AM forecast track from the National
Hurricane Center brings the storm onshore along the Connecticut/
Rhode Island border Sunday evening. Latest guidance this afternoon
suggests the track may trend a bit further west. Some initial bands
of moisture lifting north ahead of Henri could bring a few showers
Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, surface high pressure east of
the area will bring a partly to mostly cloudy and humid day on
Sunday. Henri will likely be slowly migrating north through central
New England Sunday night as it dissipates. Steering currents will be
weak, and as a result any subtle variations in the upper level
pressure gradients could significantly change the track that Henri
or its remnants take from there. High surf from Henri will likely
impact the Downeast coast late Sunday into Sunday night. Otherwise,
Sunday night will be mostly cloudy, warm and humid with scattered
showers ahead of the system, mostly Downeast. The remnants of Henri
may slowly curve northeast into western Maine on Monday possibly
bringing some showers across the area, mostly over central
parts of the region, and breezy conditons Downeast mainly over
coastal Hancock County. However, if the track does continue to
trend further west the system will end up very weakened by the
time it gets up into Maine which would minimize its impacts......
8:59 AM ADT Friday 20 August 2021
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
For Tropical Storm Henri.
FOR TROPICAL STORM HENRI.
THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED FOR 09:00 A.M. ADT SATURDAY.
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 09:00 A.M. ADT.
LOCATION: NEAR 30.3 NORTH 73.3 WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 MILLIBARS.
2. SUMMARY.
Henri is forecast to accelerate northward this weekend and strengthen to hurricane status. There's still a possibility it could strengthen to category-2 status quite far north while east of Virginia. Henri is then expected to actually slow down as it nears Cape Cod. Also once it moves over colder water it will weaken at a particularly fast pace then move slowly east or northeastward across Nova Scotia or just south. The Hurricane Edouard (1996) scenario mentioned in yesterday's bulletin is looking less likely at this point.
The storm won't likely affect our weather directly until Monday or Tuesday and at this stage appears that it may simply bring light to moderate wind and some rain. Larger than normal surf conditions will develop on the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia this weekend. Please check for updates regularly from the CHC at www.hurricanes.ca and our twitter feed @ECCC_CHC.
FORECASTER(S): HATT / FOGARTY
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
HTTP://WEATHER.GC.CA
END/ASPC
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
427 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-212030-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
427 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of
the Longfellow Mountains into Baxter State Park region. Any of the
storms will be slow-moving, which could pose a threat for torrential
downpours.
For Monday into Tuesday, there is still some uncertainty in regards
to Henri`s track toward the New England region. The main threat now
appears be significant swell and potential high surf along the
shoreline. Stay up to date on the latest forecasts.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
$$
