Saturday, September 16, 2017

Watching Out For That Fella Jose Update One

FXUS61 KCAR 162042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
442 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017


A cold front will stall over the area this evening into Sunday.
The front will lift back north in the form of a warm front
Sunday night into Monday.....


The extended models are in good agreement at the start of the
period. A cold frontal boundary will be extended across Quebec
just north of Maine. Hurricane Jose will be moving northeast of
NJ south of Cape Cod with feeder bands extending north into
coastal Maine. Wednesday morning Jose moves north southeast of
Cape Cod. The feeder band extends into central Maine. Wednesday
evening Jose is expected to turn east and track across the
southern Gulf of Maine. Minor timing difference between the two
main models. The GFS moves it east 100 miles south southeast of
SW Nova Scotia. ECMWF has it about 150 south of Bar Harbor.
Thursday morning both models moves it well east of our area.
Higher pressure will build into the area Wednesday night and
will remain across the area through Saturday evening. The GFS
maintains the ridge through the end of the period. The ECMWF
moves a front down from Canada into northern Maine at the end of
the period........

WTNT42 KNHC 162036

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through
Jose's center and found that the central pressure has dropped to
973 mb.  A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an
outer band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed
SFMR wind was 65 kt.  Based on these data, Jose's initial intensity
is held at 70 kt.  The lack of significant intensification in spite
of the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the
wind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft.

The aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the
mid-level center, has been reforming or meandering.  Smoothing
through the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or
360/5 kt.  This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during
the next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of
the subtropical ridge.  The cyclone is then expected to turn
northeastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when
it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC track forecast has
shifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial
position, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.  It
should be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie
west of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility
that Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the
official forecast.

Jose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the
shear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight
strengthening.  However, the shear is expected to increase over 30
kt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken.  The
hurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72
hours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken
to a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves
eastward away from New England.


1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.
coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone
could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to
the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.
east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.


INIT  16/2100Z 28.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 29.6N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 30.9N  71.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 32.3N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 33.8N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 37.1N  70.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 40.0N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 41.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

Forecaster Berg