Hurricane (category 2) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 8
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 DATA FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING SHOW THAT EARL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 MB. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 111 KT...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND MEASURED RECENTLY BY THE SFMR WAS 84 KT...AND DROPSONDE DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE 80 TO 90 KT RANGE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALONG WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE OLD INNER EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND A LARGER 50 N MI WIDE EYE IS NOW REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM MOREHEAD CITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...AND OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR INCREASES. MODEL FIELDS AND CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW EARL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW THAT EARL HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/15. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS EARL IS CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ADJUSTED FARTHER EASTWARD IF THE CURRENT MOTION TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AND NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND MAINE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 33.8N 74.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 36.2N 73.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 39.5N 70.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 43.9N 66.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 48.4N 61.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 ...CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 74.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS FROM NORTH OF HULL TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXPANDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND FROM AULDS COVE IN NOVA SCOTIA WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC IN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE * NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND * NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER * STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC * NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO TIDNISH * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG NNNN
posted by Advackia at 8:18 PM
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