Thursday, September 02, 2010

Hurricane (category 2) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 8

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
DATA FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING SHOW THAT EARL HAS
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 MB.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 111 KT...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST
SURFACE WIND MEASURED RECENTLY BY THE SFMR WAS 84 KT...AND DROPSONDE
DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE 80 TO 90 KT RANGE.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALONG WITH MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE OLD INNER EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND A
LARGER 50 N MI WIDE EYE IS NOW REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE
IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM MOREHEAD CITY.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS AND THE
SHIPS MODEL...AND OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR INCREASES.  MODEL FIELDS AND
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW EARL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48
HOURS...AND BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS.
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW THAT EARL HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/15. 
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS EARL IS CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ADJUSTED FARTHER
EASTWARD IF THE CURRENT MOTION TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH CONTINUES.
 
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE
WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  EARL
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AND NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF MASSACHUSETTS AND MAINE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 33.8N  74.4W    90 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 36.2N  73.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 39.5N  70.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 43.9N  66.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 48.4N  61.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
...CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM NORTH OF HULL TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER...AND FOR THE COAST OF
MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT.
 
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXPANDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
NORTHWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND FROM AULDS COVE IN NOVA SCOTIA
WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY
HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO
TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO CANADA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.  AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT
PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
 
NNNN

Hurricane (category 2) Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 7

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST.  EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.  THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED ABOUT 20
MILES...30 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 38 MPH...60 KM/HR. 
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE 
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOON.  EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER BANKS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY.  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
 
NNNN

Major (Category 3) Hurricane Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 6

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN.  AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 

ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 32.5N  75.2W   100 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  74.8W    95 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 38.0N  72.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 41.7N  69.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  64.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE OUTER BANKS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOON.  EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON
FRIDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. 
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...THE OUTER BANKS AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL
AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN

 Watches

Yarmouth County
2:48 PM ADT Thursday 02 September 2010
Hurricane watch for
Yarmouth County issued

Hurricane Earl is moving northward toward the Maritimes. Maximum wind gusts could reach 130 km/h over the above regions beginning early Saturday morning.

A hurricane watch means that a hurricane or an incipient hurricane condition poses a possible threat to the specified areas within 36 to 48 hours.

At noon Thursday the centre of hurricane Earl was located near 485 km south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and moving northward at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia to the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

Strong winds...Gusting up to 130 km/h or perhaps higher are possible for southwestern counties of Nova Scotia early Saturday morning. Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia...Up as far as the eastern shore...And the Bay of Fundy maximum wind gusts could reach 90 km/h.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres could fall over the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region.

Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information.

Yarmouth County
10:40 AM ADT THURSDAY 02 SEPTEMBER 2010
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
Yarmouth County CONTINUED

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

Watches

Saint John and County
2:33 PM ADT Thursday 02 September 2010
Tropical storm watch for
Saint John and County issued

Hurricane Earl is moving northward toward the Maritimes. Maximum wind gusts could reach 90 km/h over the above regions beginning Saturday morning. A tropical storm watch means that a tropical storm or an incipient tropical storm condition poses a possible threat to the specified areas within 36 hours to 48 hours.

At noon Thursday the centre of hurricane Earl was located near 485 kilometres south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and moving northward at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia to the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

Strong winds in the Bay of Fundy could give maximum wind gusts to 90 km/h on Saturday.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres could fall over the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region.

Tropical Storm Watch Issued for South-Western Nova Scotia

Yarmouth County
10:40 AM ADT THURSDAY 02 SEPTEMBER 2010
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
Yarmouth County CONTINUED

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.


Yarmouth County
10:39 AM ADT Thursday 02 September 2010
Tropical storm watch for
Yarmouth County continued

In coordination with the national hurricane center in Miami the Canadian Hurricane Centre has posted a tropical storm watch. A tropical storm watch means that a tropical storm or an incipient tropical storm condition poses a possible threat to the specified areas within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the above regions due to the possibility that tropical storm force winds ahead of hurricane Earl could reach Extreme Southwestern Nova Scotia late Friday evening.


Humidex and Health Advisory Issued for New Brunswick 09-02-2010

WOCN14 CWHX 021340
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR REGIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK ISSUED JOINTLY
BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AND THE NEW BRUNSWICK DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AT
9:59 AM ADT THURSDAY 2 SEPTEMBER 2010.

HUMIDEX AND HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUED FOR
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
SUSSEX/KENNEBECASIS VALLEY AND KINGS COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY
FREDERICTON AND SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY
OROMOCTO AND SUNBURY COUNTY
GRAND LAKE AND QUEENS COUNTY
MONCTON AND SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK
FUNDY NATIONAL PARK
KENT COUNTY
KOUCHIBOUGUAC NATIONAL PARK
STANLEY - DOAKTOWN - BLACKVILLE AREA
WOODSTOCK AND CARLETON COUNTY.

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HUMIDEX VALUES OF
NEAR 40 C THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FUNDY COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE HUMIDEX
VALUES SOMEWHAT COOLER.

FURTHER DETAILS FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR PUBLIC FORECAST.

THE NEW BRUNSWICK DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH ADVISES THE FOLLOWING:

THE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH RECOMMENDS THAT YOU STAY IN SHADED OR AIR
CONDITIONED AREAS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR
LIGHT CLOTHING AND TAKE BREAKS OFTEN IF YOU ARE EXERCISING OR WORKING
OUTDOORS. CONSIDERATION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO POSTPONE STRENUOUS
EXERCISE OR WORK UNTIL A COOLER TIME OF THE DAY. ORGANIZERS OF SPORT
AND RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES SHOULD BUILD IN REGULAR WATER BREAKS AND
CONSIDER RESCHEDULING ACTIVITIES. THE ELDERLY, BABIES AND YOUNG
CHILDREN, OR PEOPLE WITH HEART OR LUNG PROBLEMS ARE MOST AT RISK OF
SERIOUS HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. PEOPLE TAKING MEDICATIONS, ESPECIALLY
FOR MENTAL HEALTH CONDITIONS, SHOULD CHECK WITH THEIR DOCTOR OR
PHARMACIST TO SEE IF THEY ARE MORE AT RISK FROM HIGH TEMPERATURES.

END



Third Day, of the Now Official, Great Heatwave of Late August/Early September 2010

Historical Data
Saint Stephen

  • Yesterday
  •  
  • Max:
  • 34.8°C
  • Min:
  • 20.4°C
  • Precip:
  • 0.0 mm
  •  
  •  
  • Normals
  •  
  • Max:
  • 22°C
  • Min:
  • 8°C
  •  
  • Today
  •  
  • Sunrise:
  • 6:52
  • Sunset:
  • 20:06
  • Historical Data
    Fredericton
  • Yesterday
  •  
  • Max:
  • 34.1°C
  • Min:
  • 19.1°C
  • Precip:
  • 0.0 mm
  •  
  •  Normals
  •  
  • Max:
  • 22°C
  • Min:
  • 8°C
  •  
  • Today
  •  
  • Sunrise:
  • 6:48
  • Sunset:
  • 20:04
  • Historical Data
    Edmundstob
  • Yesterday
  •  
  • Max:
  • 33.6°C
  • Min:
  • 14.9°C
  • Precip:
  • 0.0 mm
  •  
  •  Normals
  •  
  • Max:
  • 19°C
  • Min:
  • 8°C
  •  
  • Today
  •  
  • Sunrise:
  • 6:53
  • Sunset:
  • 20:13

  • Historical Data
    Miramichi

  • Yesterday
  •  
  • Max:
  • 35.9°C
  • Min:
  • 17.9°C
  • Precip:
  • 0.0 mm
  •  
  • Normals
  •  
  • Max:
  • 20°C
  • Min:
  • 10°C
  •  
  • Today
  •  
  • Sunrise:
  • 6:42
  • Sunset:
  • 20:01
  • Major (Category 4) Hurricane now heading towards the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 5

    ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  32A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
    800 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
     
    ...INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
    TRACK...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...30.1N 74.8W
    ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
     
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
    CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
    SOUNDS.
     
    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
    DELAWARE.
    * WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
    VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
    * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
    JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
    CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
    * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
    AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
    BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
    * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
    PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
    * NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
    * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
    
    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD
    THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SOON.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
    AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
    CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND BE VERY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
    ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
     
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
    EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
    HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS. 
     
    HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
    MILES...370 KM.
     
    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
    DATA IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
    CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
    THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
    EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE OUTER BANKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  
    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM
    VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
    FRIDAY.
     
    STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
    MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
    AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.  ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
    AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
    BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
     
    RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.  ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
    INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
    MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
     
    SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
    AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE
    SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
    CURRENTS.
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
     
    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA
     
    NNNN