Tropical Depression Claudette Drifts Through The Southeastern United States

00

WTNT33 KNHC 210237

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021

1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...CLAUDETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...

...EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE

COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...34.7N 80.4W

ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within

24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the

progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression

Claudette was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 80.4 West.

The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31

km/h).  An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some

increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.

On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across

portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the

coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday,

and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to 

become a tropical storm again by early Monday over eastern North 

Carolina.  Some additional strengthening is possible over the 

western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday.  Claudette is expected 

to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday 

night.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 

observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,

and on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:  Through Monday morning, Claudette is expected to produce

additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum

totals of 5 inches across portions of southeastern Georgia, central

and coastal South Carolina, and south-central to eastern North

Carolina.  Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well

as isolated minor river flooding are possible across these areas.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with

Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the

WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft

Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the

warning area by early Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are

possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday 

across parts of the coastal Carolinas.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

WTNT43 KNHC 210238

TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021

1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and 

northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself 

is not very well defined.  Coastal surface observations indicate 

that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt.  Some 

additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is 

expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the 

Atlantic on Monday.  A little more intensification could occur 

while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream 

during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast.  

Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the 

global models suggest that the system will lose tropical 

characteristics, or even open up into a trough.

Claudette's forward speed is gradually increasing and the current 

motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt.  On the projected 

track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow.  

The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern 

United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east-

northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours.  The 

official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to 

the model consensus TVCN.

No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United 

States coasts are required at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash 

flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday 

morning.  Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are 

possible across these areas.

2.  A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across 

parts of the coastal Carolinas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the

North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm

Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in

northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical

Storm Watch is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 34.7N  80.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  21/1200Z 35.9N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 24H  22/0000Z 38.1N  71.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER

 36H  22/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  23/0000Z 44.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 60H  23/1200Z 47.5N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Pasch

3:17 PM ADT Sunday 20 June 2021

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:

Guysborough County

Halifax County - east of Porters Lake

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Lunenburg County

Queens County

Richmond County

Shelburne County

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

For Tropical Depression Claudette.

The next information statement is expected at 9:00 am Monday.

Tropical Depression Claudette may affect Atlantic Canada Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Tropical Depression Claudette is moving slowly northeastward over the southeastern US today and tonight. Despite being over land for a while and fairly high central pressure, it is expected to move back over the ocean intact and regain Tropical Storm intensity off the Carolinas. The system is expected to track south of Nova Scotia and any remaining winds will be well offshore. There is also a possibility the low could simply weaken to a basic trough of low pressure by Tuesday, at which point the CHC would end messages. Regardless, Nova Scotia and then Newfoundland may see some heavy downpours on Tuesday and Tuesday night while gale-force winds would likely occur over southern Canadian waters .

Forecaster: Hatt

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.