Category 3 Hurricane Ike heading towards the Bahamas

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...THE EYE OF IKE REAPPEARS...STILL HEADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
510 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...22.8 N...64.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG/AVILA

NNNN

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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST
PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED...ALONG WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 94 KT...PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95
KT. A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 100 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
LATE TOMORROW...AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS
RAPID...BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
LGEM MODEL EARLY ON...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF
THEREAFTER. A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IKE'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13. A
GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR
SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A
FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN
OF THE HURRICANE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE
NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES
WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER. THE MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A
STRONGER RIDGE. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

Tropical Storm Hanna, one again almost a hurricane, nearing the coast of the Carolinas

WOCN31 CWHX 060000
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 05 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

...POST-TROPICAL STORM HANNA TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.6 N AND LONGITUDE 78.9 W... ABOUT 95 NAUTICAL MILES OR 180 KM
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 984 MB. HANNA IS
MOVING NORTH AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 05 9.00 PM 31.6N 78.9W 984 60 111
SEP 06 3.00 AM 33.1N 78.6W 984 60 111
SEP 06 9.00 AM 35.0N 77.8W 988 55 102
SEP 06 3.00 PM 36.7N 76.9W 990 50 93 TRANSITIONING
SEP 06 9.00 PM 39.2N 74.7W 992 45 83 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 3.00 AM 41.0N 72.6W 993 45 83 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 9.00 AM 42.9N 69.3W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 3.00 PM 44.5N 65.6W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 9.00 PM 46.3N 61.2W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 AM 47.7N 56.8W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 AM 49.0N 52.2W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 PM 50.0N 47.5W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 PM 50.5N 43.0W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 3.00 AM 50.7N 38.5W 990 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 9.00 AM 50.9N 34.1W 990 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HANNA WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY. A
LEADING AREA OF MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF HANNA..BUT NOT RELATED TO
THE STORM..MAY BRING SOME HEAVY SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE MARITIMES ON
SATURDAY WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 25 MM POSSIBLE.

WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GIVE DETAILED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE PASSAGE OF POST-TROPICAL HANNA ON SUNDAY..IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SIMILAR SYSTEMS IN THE PAST HAVE TYPICALLY DELIVERED 50-100 MM.
THE DETAILS OF THE AMOUNT EXTENT AND LOCATION OF MAXIMUM RAINFALLS
SHOULD BECOME CLEARER OVERNIGHT WHEN NEW COMPUTER MODELS BECOME
AVAILABLE. WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK..LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY OVER WATER.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
POST-TROPICAL HANNA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING GALES TO MARITIME
WATERS ON SUNDAY AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL
FROM HANNA AND THE DISTANT HURRICANE IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
MARITIME WATERS ON SATURDAY..HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 3 METRES UNTIL HANNA ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE THIS AFTERNOON KEPT HANNA NEAR
HURICANE STRENGTH. THE STORM IS NOW MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD. SURFACE
DATA CONTINUES SUGGESTING AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LAND-BASED RADAR IMAGERY FROM SOUTH CAROLINA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
OF THE STORM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT..SO A SLIGHT
NUDGE IN THE TRACK HAS BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST.

B. PROGNOSTIC
VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TRACK PACKAGE WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED.
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS CONTINUE SUGGESTING TRANSITION WILL BE
COMPLETE PRIOR TO IT REACHING CANADIAN WATERS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW THAT HANNA WILL BECOME INVOLVED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING ATLANTIC CANADA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS IT
ARRIVES..AS NOTED IN THE QPF FIELD. GFS NAM AND GLOBAL QPF INDICATE
50-100 MM NEAR AND LEFT OF THE STORM TRACK.

D. MARINE WEATHER
THESE WIND RADII REPRESENT BOTH HANNA AND THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION
AT THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STORM.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
06/00Z 275 225 60 120 90 25 0 90 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 275 210 60 110 70 25 0 45 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 275 200 60 100 50 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 260 200 55 75 25 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 250 200 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 235 200 50 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 225 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 225 200 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 225 200 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 160 225 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 100 250 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/18Z 100 250 105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/00Z 100 250 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/06Z 100 250 175 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/12Z 100 250 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END BOWYER/FOGARTY/SUTHERLAND

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WOCN31 CWHX 051800
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 05 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

... POST-TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVING THROUGH MARITIMES SUNDAY ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.8 N AND LONGITUDE 78.5 W... ABOUT 165 NAUTICAL MILES OR 305 KM
EAST NORTHEAST OF ORLANDO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 981
MB. HANNA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS... 32 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 05 3.00 PM 29.8N 78.5W 981 60 111
SEP 05 9.00 PM 31.1N 79.0W 978 60 111
SEP 06 3.00 AM 32.9N 79.2W 981 55 102
SEP 06 9.00 AM 34.7N 79.0W 983 55 102
SEP 06 3.00 PM 36.5N 77.9W 988 50 93 TRANSITIONING
SEP 06 9.00 PM 38.2N 76.1W 991 45 83 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 3.00 AM 40.4N 73.4W 993 45 83 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 9.00 AM 42.4N 70.1W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 3.00 PM 44.5N 65.7W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 9.00 PM 46.5N 61.5W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 AM 48.1N 56.8W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 AM 49.1N 52.5W 995 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 3.00 PM 49.9N 48.2W 994 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 PM 50.4N 43.9W 993 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 3.00 AM 50.6N 39.5W 990 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HANNA WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY.
A LEADING AREA OF MOISTURE FORMING WELL AHEAD OF HANNA WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE MARITIMES ON LATE SATURDAY. CURRENTLY WE
ARE FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 25 MM ON SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN GIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH POST-TROPICAL
HANNA OVER ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
BASED ON LATEST PROJECTIONS HANNA MAY BRING GALES TO MARITIME WATERS
ON SUNDAY AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
HANNA AND THE DISTANT HURRICANE IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH MARITIME
WATERS ON SATURDAY HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULDN'T CLIMB ABOVE 3
METRES
UNTIL HANNA ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
NHC REPORTS AIR RECON REPORTS CENTRE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. OUR POSITION FOLLOWS THE NHC FIX.
HANNA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION NOW SURROUNDING THE CENTRE. HOWEVER WATER VAPOUR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM.
QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING INDICATED A GOOD SYMMETRIC AREA OF GALES
OUT TO ALMOST 300 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE STORM CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS WERE INDICATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STORM.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE CHC TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO MIAMI'S TRACK THROUGH CANADIAN
TERRITORY. TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS AND AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATER EAST
OF CAPE COD. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT HANNA WILL BE POST
TROPICAL AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FORECAST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING TO THE EAST
OF THE TRACK AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK.

CHC AND NHC'S TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. WE ARE CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A SIMILAR
TRACK TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE
TRACK SOMEWHAT IF SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
EVEN SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO DISTRIBUTION OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND
RAINFALL.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THERE MAY BE CONFUSION AMONGST THE MEDIA AND PUBLIC ABOUT THE RAIN
FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR THE MARITIMES AS MANY MAY BELIEVE THAT
HANNA HAS ARRIVED EARLY. IN FACT.. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH 3 AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION; THE FIRST ONE IS A BATCH OF RAIN THAT WILL MOVE
WELL AHEAD OF HANNA IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY JETSTREAM; THE
SECOND IS THE RAIN FORECAST WITH HANNA ON SUNDAY AND THE THIRD IS
THE RAIN FORECAST AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK FROM
THE WEST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS SEEN MANY TIMES WITH THESE TYPES
OF SCENARIOS..RAIN FROM HANNA WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME
INCORPORATED INTO HANNA. THIS SORT OF DYNAMICS WILL GIVE HEAVY RAIN
WHICH CEASES ONCE HANNA MOVES AWAY.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
05/18Z 275 225 60 120 90 10 10 90 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 275 225 60 120 90 25 0 90 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 275 210 60 110 70 25 0 45 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 275 200 60 100 50 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 260 200 55 75 25 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 250 200 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 235 200 50 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 225 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 225 200 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 225 200 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 160 225 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 100 250 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/18Z 100 250 105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/00Z 100 250 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/06Z 100 250 175 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END HATT/BOWYER