Hurricane Lee (Category 1) Zeroes In On The Maritimes

11:47 PM ADT Thursday 14 September 2023

Tropical storm force winds of 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee can be expected over the above regions.

Tropical storm conditions expected to begin early Saturday morning.

Corresponding wind, rainfall, and storm surge warnings will be issued for affected areas later today.

These winds could break tree branches potentially resulting in downed utility lines.

Secure loose objects on your property and anticipate power interruptions. Stay away from the shore - the combination of surge and large waves could result in dangerous rip currents and the risk of being pulled out to sea.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

11:47 PM ADT Thursday 14 September 2023

Tropical storm force winds of 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Lee can be expected over the above regions.

Tropical storm conditions expected to begin early Saturday morning.

Corresponding wind, rainfall, and storm surge warnings will be issued for affected areas later today.

These winds could break tree branches potentially resulting in downed utility lines.

Secure loose objects on your property and anticipate power interruptions. Stay away from the shore - the combination of surge and large waves could result in dangerous rip currents and the risk of being pulled out to sea.

By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.

002 

WTNT33 KNHC 150249

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE

EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.9N 67.6W

ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM WNW OF BERMUDA

ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning

for New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,

including Grand Manan Island, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the

coast of Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,

including Grand Manan Island

* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Bermuda

* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border

* Martha's Vineyard

* Nantucket

* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,

including Grand Manan Island

* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic

Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located

near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 67.6 West. Lee is moving toward

the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with an

increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday.  A turn

toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday

night and Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Lee will

continue to pass west-northwest of Bermuda through tonight, 

approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and 

Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through Friday

afternoon.  Some gradual weakening is forecast Friday night and

Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the

next couple of days.

Lee is a very large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend

outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and

tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85

km/h) was recently reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport

on Bermuda.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 

Hunter observations is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through

Friday morning.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane

Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New

England on Friday afternoon and spread northward within the

Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday.  Tropical storm

conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in

Atlantic Canada by late Friday into Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft

Long Island Sound...1-3 ft

Cape Cod...1-3 ft

Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft

Boston Harbor...1-3 ft

Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the

wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser

Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,

Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the

east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.  These swells

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of

1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda overnight

and early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce

rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across

portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and

Nova Scotia.  This may produce localized urban and small stream

flooding.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

691 

WTNT43 KNHC 150250

TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter

aircraft indicate that Lee's eyewall is not well defined, and this

is also suggested by geostationary satellite and microwave imagery.

Although the peak 700 mb flight-level winds reported by the plane

were near 93 kt, the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 72 kt.

Thus the winds aloft in the hurricane are not being transported

very effectively to the surface.  This is not surprising, since the

central deep convection is no longer very strong.  The current

intensity is kept at 75 kt based on the aircraft data, which is

well above the Dvorak satellite estimates.

Lee wobbled a bit to the northeast early this evening, but the

longer-term motion appears to be just east of north, or around

010/12 kt.  The system should move generally northward at a faster

forward speed, on the west side of a mid-level ridge, during the

next day or so.  A slight bend to the left is likely late Friday as

the cyclone interacts with a mid-level trough.  By late Saturday,

Lee should begin to turn toward the north-northeast with the center

passing near or over western Nova Scotia.  Then, Lee is forecast to

turn northeastward over Atlantic Canada.  The track guidance remains

in good agreement through 72 hours, and the official forecast is

basically an update of the previous one.

South-southwesterly shear is predicted to increase significantly

over Lee during the next couple of days.  This, along with cooler

SSTs, particularly after the system moves north of 40N latitude,

should result in weakening.  However, baroclinic processes could

help the cyclone maintain its intensity, or at least slow the

weakening rate.  The official intensity forecast is above the model

guidance for this reason.  In 48 hours, simulated satellite imagery

shows an asymmetric cloud structure characteristic of an

extratropical cyclone.  Regardless of when extratropical transition

actually occurs, however, Lee should remain a very large and

dangerous cyclone through landfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf will

continue to impact Bermuda through Friday morning, and a Tropical

Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in

portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova

Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for that

area.  Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are expected

to begin in southern New England on Friday afternoon, and spread

northward along the coast of New England and over portions of

Atlantic Canada through Saturday where Tropical Storm warnings are

in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small

stream flooding across eastern New England and into portions of New

Brunswick and Nova Scotia from Friday night into Saturday night.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 32.9N  67.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  15/1200Z 35.0N  67.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  16/0000Z 38.4N  66.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  16/1200Z 41.6N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  17/0000Z 44.3N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 60H  17/1200Z 47.0N  63.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  18/0000Z 49.6N  59.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  19/0000Z 54.5N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Pasch

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Caribou ME

922 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

MEZ029-030-151045-

/O.CON.KCAR.CF.W.0001.230916T0300Z-230916T2100Z/

/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230915T1600Z/

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

922 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO

5 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Warning, overwash is expected for

  large breaking waves along the coast. These waves may cause

  minor inundation along low lying areas exposed to waves and

  tidal influence.

  For the High Surf Advisory tonight into early Friday, large

  breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Warning, from 11 PM Friday to 5

  PM EDT Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until noon EDT

  Friday.

* IMPACTS...Machias, Seawall Road on Mount Desert Island,

  Schoodic Point, Deer Isle Causeway, and other low lying, tidal

  influenced areas including around Lubec and Eastport may

  experience minor to moderate inundation and overwash. Greatest

  concern is for the Saturday high tide near noon.

  High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will

  make for hazardous surf conditions. Large waves can present a

  danger to people on rocks above the water. Stay away from rock

  outcrops along the shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves

  can easily sweep people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If

travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through

water of unknown depth.

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in

the advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach

erosion.

&&

$$

9:24 PM ADT Thursday 14 September 2023

The next information statement will be issued at 3:00 AM ADT.

Hurricane Lee will be moving into western Nova Scotia / southern New Brunswick Saturday with heavy rains, high winds, and large waves then weakening quickly Saturday night with lingering conditions on Sunday.  

Intensity/classification: Approaching category-1 hurricane becoming a strong tropical storm then transforming into post-tropical low while making landfall anywhere from Grand Manan Island New Brunswick to Shelburne County Nova Scotia Saturday evening.

1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 32.1 degrees North 68 degrees West.

About 315 km west of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 139 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North around 24 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 957 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County in New Brunswick and Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, and Queens Counties in Nova Scotia.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Saint John County, Fundy National Park, and Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick.  Most of mainland Nova Scotia is now under a tropical storm watch except northern Nova Scotia and Colchester County north and south of Truro. This will likely be upgraded to a warning tonight.

The circulation of Hurricane Lee will be quite broad as it reaches our region so impacts will occur not only near the track but up to 300 km away from it.

NOTE: In addition to Lee, the Maritime provinces will continue to experience bands of training downpours travelling from southwest to northeast throughout the night and Friday.  These bands are notoriously difficult to predict but it is important to understand there is a flooding risk with these bands well before the arrival of Lee. Near 75 mm has fallen today in the eastern Annapolis Valley. These complex effects are indirectly related to the hurricane.  Additional rainfall from Lee itself could exacerbate the risk of flooding. 

 

a. Wind.

Most likely region for worst impacts: western Nova Scotia as well as Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County region of New Brunswick. Areas under the tropical storm watch could see sustained winds of 70 km/h with gusts of 90 to 100 km/h possible. Areas under the hurricane watch will likely see the strongest winds, with potential gusts of 120 km/h. Winds of that strength this time of year would result in some tree damage and utility interruptions.

b. Rainfall.

Heaviest rainfall threat has shifted eastward a bit and now runs through central New Brunswick and northward into the Gaspe region and the Lower Quebec North Shore.  We have extended this bulletin and rainfall threat northeastward to Blanc Sablon Quebec.  The risk of heavy rains is decreasing (but still exists) for the Rimouski and Temiscouata area.  

Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are possible, especially in areas to the left of the track. NOTE: Western Nova Scotia and the Annapolis Valley flooding risk has increased - there could be heavy amounts in the vicinity of the track itself with indications of possibly 75 mm directly from Lee. This combined with the rain that is falling there today increases the vulnerability to further flooding in that area.

c. Surge/Waves.

High waves and elevated water levels will be widespread due to the large size of the storm - the most impacted areas likely covering much of the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and to a much lesser extent, the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. Wave conditions could also become rough in areas in the southwestern Gulf of St Lawrence / western Northumberland Strait but should remain below warning criteria.

For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia breaking waves of 4-6 metres (15 to 20 feet) are likely.  Elevated water levels (storm surge) combined with waves could result in coastal flooding during the high tide late morning to noon Saturday in Shelburne County then during the high tide late Saturday evening along the coast from Queens County to eastern Halifax County.  It is during this late-Saturday period where a storm surge warning may be required - water levels up to 1 metre (3 feet) above high tide is possible. Consider this statement effectively as a 'watch'. 

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Greatest waves and winds expected around the Bay of Fundy, Gulf of Maine and southwest Maritimes marine district. Gale and Storm warnings are in effect for southwestern marine areas beginning late in the day on Friday. Hurricane force winds are likely to impact southwestern waters on Saturday and potentially Lurcher for a brief period on the west side of the storm.

Forecaster: Fogarty/Roch

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

8:27 PM ADT Thursday 14 September 2023

Elevated pollution levels are expected or occurring.

Smoke from a fire in downtown Saint John is reducing air quality across parts of the city.

Locations: Downtown Saint John.

Time span: continuing tonight.

Short range wind forecast: light southwesterly winds becoming northerly overnight.

Remarks: An industrial fire on the Saint John waterfront is causing significant concentrations of smoke and reduced air quality in the vicinity of the fire as well as along the waterfront in the downtown area.

Please adhere to any instructions from local authorities.

Individuals may experience symptoms such as increased coughing, throat irritation, headaches or shortness of breath. Children, seniors, and those with cardiovascular or lung disease, such as asthma, are especially at risk.

If you are experiencing symptoms, such as coughing or throat irritation, consider reducing or rescheduling strenuous outdoor activities until the special air quality statement is lifted. Exposure to air pollution is particularly a health concern for people with heart or breathing problems, those with diabetes, children and the elderly.

Visit airhealth.ca for information on how to reduce your health risk and your personal contribution to pollution levels, as well as for current and forecast AQHI values.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Issued by Environment Canada, the New Brunswick Department of Environment and Local Government and the New Brunswick Department of Health.

Lee Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38

National Weather Service Caribou ME  AL132023

527 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

MEZ011-150530-

/O.NEW.KCAR.TR.W.1013.230914T2127Z-000000T0000Z/

Central Penobscot-

527 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are

expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED

    - Lincoln

    - Howland

    - Springfield

* WIND

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind

        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39

      to 57 mph

        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the

          previous assessment.

        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm

          force.

        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be

          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.

        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind

          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited

        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored

          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.

        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or

          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees

          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown

          over.

        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within

          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving

          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.

        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally

          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for

      moderate flooding rain

        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from

          the previous assessment.

        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for

          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues

          are possible.

        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area

          vulnerable to flooding.

        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take

          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant

        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations

          and rescues.

        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with

          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,

          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,

          creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.

        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken

          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas

          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and

          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on

          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.

          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge

          closures.

* TORNADO

    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:

        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST

      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected

        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the

          previous assessment.

        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms

          with gusty winds may still occur.

        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect

          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest

          tornado situation.

        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None

        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:

    - https://maine.gov/mema/hazards/natural-hazards/hurricanes

$$

Hurricane Lee Local Statement Advisory Number 38

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-150600-

Hurricane Lee Local Statement Advisory Number 38

National Weather Service Caribou ME  AL132023

547 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

This product covers EASTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE

**Tropical Storm Warning Issued and Hurricane Watch Continues for

 Downeast Maine as Lee Approaches**

NEW INFORMATION

---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm

      Warning for Central Washington, Interior Hancock, Northern

      Washington, and Southern Penobscot

    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Central Penobscot,

      Coastal Hancock, and Coastal Washington

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for

      Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington

    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Penobscot,

      Central Washington, Interior Hancock, Northern Washington, and

      Southern Penobscot

* STORM INFORMATION:

    - About 910 miles south of Eastport ME

    - 31.7N 68.3W

    - Storm Intensity 85 mph

    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW

------------------

- Forecast confidence continues to increase that Lee will make

  landfall along the coast of New Brunswick late Saturday night/early

  Sunday morning

- Lee is a large storm and impacts are expected well away from the

center

- Tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall are expected from

Bangor Region through Interior Downeast and southward. The Downeast

Coast will feel the most impact from Lee, including moderate coastal

flooding and erosion.

- Power outages and localized flooding from rainfall could be enhanced

 by rainfall earlier this week

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

-----------------

* WIND:

Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts

across Downeast Maine. Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage

      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings

      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile

      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight

      objects become dangerous projectiles.

    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater

      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several

      fences and roadway signs blown over.

    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban

      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access

      routes impassable.

    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent

      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts

across Northern Maine.

* FLOODING RAIN:

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant

impacts across Eastern and Downeast Maine. Potential impacts include:

    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and

      rescues.

    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter

      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially

      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,

      arroyos, and ditches overflow.

    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.

      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid

      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage

      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as

      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions

      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* SURGE:

Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts

across coastal Downeast Maine. Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along

      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots.

    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread

      with surge water and rocks and debris. Driving conditions

      dangerous in places where surge water or rocks and debris covers

      the road.

    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly

      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.

    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,

      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:

Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across EASTERN AND

NORTHERN MAINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,

including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so

immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,

falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,

relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep

roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time

to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle

ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose

items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and

property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a

safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.

Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges

will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather

forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter

rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have

pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of

life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any

orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency

Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are

unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles

can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide

poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly

ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an

emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in

which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which

it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay

attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone

area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded

roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets

for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes

to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather

warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:

- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov

- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org

- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE

-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather

Service in Caribou ME around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions

warrant.

$$