Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 01/18/2024
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1144 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE...
This is the second Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for
2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine.
This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the
two week period of January 18th through February 1st, 2024.
The potential for ice jam flooding is Normal across all basins
with ice increasing on the rivers. The potential for open water
flooding is normal across all basins with above normal
streamflows.
...NORTHERN BASINS...
SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 10-20 inches with isolated higher amounts
WATER EQUIVALENT: Slightly Below Normal. Generally 1.5-3.5 inches
STREAM FLOWS: Slightly Above Normal.
RIVER ICE: Significant jumbled ice combined with sheet ice.
Significant frazil activity will continue to increase the ice
thickness and deposits over the next week or two. Rivers are not
100% covered which is unusual. Ice thickness remains unstable and
thin noted by the lack of wildlife using the ice.
...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS...
SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 4-12 inches.
WATER EQUIVALENT: Slightly Below Normal. Generally 1.0-3.0 inches.
STREAM FLOWS: Above to Much Above Normal.
RIVER ICE: Significant jumbled ice combined with sheet ice.
Significant frazil activity will continue to increase the ice
thickness and deposits over the next week or two.
...DOWNEAST BASINS...
SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 2-7 inches.
WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 0.5-1.2 inches.
STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal.
RIVER ICE: Mixed conditions with a lot of open water with frazil
ice thanks to increased turbulence due to high flows.
For the 2024 season the ESF will be in graphical format on our
website www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook with more details.
...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
El Nino conditions are likely to continue right into early Spring
2024 so we can expect more moisture laden southern stream systems to
come across the southern United States with the potential to move up
the east coast of the United States...possibly affecting Maine.
The one difference we have seen in early January is a flip in the
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index from strongly positive to
strongly negative. With a negative NAO index...upper-level
blocking downstream of New England in the vicinity of Greenland
helps to force cold air south and promote more wintry
precipitation. We have indeed seen this with the last few systems
have produced snow and/or ice...building the snowpack.
Medium range climate guidance is in strong agreement that the NAO
index will be flipping back to positive as we head into the end
of January 2024. This may promote a retreat of the coldest air
into Canada and with the forecast of an increasingly positive
Pacific North America (PNA) index developing in late January
which favors east coast troughing...we could see a return to the
pattern we saw in December 2023 which would be warmer and perhaps
wetter than normal.
The official 8 to 14 day outlook from NOAA`s Climate Prediction
Center for 24 to 30 January 2024 is in strong agreement with the
above discussion as it calls for temperatures to likely be above
normal across all Maine with precipitation also leaning above
normal.
$$
Sinko
posted by Advackia at 7:57 PM
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