Major (Category 4) Hurricane Earl Effecting the Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico Update 5
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 THE INTENSITY OF EARL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR THE TIME BEING. DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE WAS ALSO AN UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND OF 111 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL OR CONVECTIVE RING MAY BE FORMING. THIS WOULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVE SOUTHWARD...WHICH IS AN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION THAT IS USUALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER THE GFS PREDICTS AROUND 18-20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER EARL IN 24-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALSO...SOME OSCILLATIONS IN INTENSIYY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS OR OTHER INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OF EARL BUT THE MEAN MOTION HAS BEEN ABOUT 300/12 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS EARL MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY 3...A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF STEERING BY DAY 4...AND EARL IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN RATHER CLOSE AGREEMENT UP TO 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AFTER THAT FORECAST TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN... SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 19.9N 65.8W 115 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 20.9N 67.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 22.6N 69.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 26.9N 73.4W 120 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 110 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 38.5N 70.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 46.0N 62.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 ...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 65.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND PASS EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PUERTO RICO WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 AM AST AND 300 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
posted by Advackia at 8:32 PM
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