Wednesday, September 20, 2017

That Fella Jose Lingers Offshore

2:40 PM ADT Wednesday 20 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:
Queens County
Shelburne County
Yarmouth County
For Tropical Storm Jose.

The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Jose forecast to drift slowly well southwest of Nova Scotia for the next few days. Minimal land impacts expected except for rough surf along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia

1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 39.3 North 69.5 West.

About 395 kilometres east-southeast of New York City.

Maximum sustained winds: 111 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: East-Northeast at 13 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 975 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Big picture:

Jose's continues as a tropical storm and its circulation is still expected to just barely affect Nova Scotia while it drifts slowly well southwest of the province. It will take several days for Jose to dissipate completely.

Hurricane Maria, a dangerous category 4 hurricane recently passed over Puerto Rico. That storm will be located near the Bahamas by the weekend, at which time we will be contemplating whether the Canadian Hurricane Centre will be issuing regular bulletins on it. Stay tuned.

a. Wind.

It's still looking like only light to moderate easterly winds will be felt in Nova Scotia on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be a bit stronger over southwestern parts of the province (~50 km/h).

b. Rainfall.

Jose and an associated trough east of it will maintain very humid, tropical air over the region with overcast skies and some showers, possibly heavy today and tonight. Conditions should start to dry out a bit on Thursday.

c. Surge/Waves.

Increasingly rough surf conditions can be expected along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia today into Thursday. Swells near 2 to 3 metres will build to 3 to 4 metres along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia tonight and into Thursday then taper off late Friday into the weekend. The highest waves are expected from Yarmouth east to Queens County. There is also a risk of dangerous rip currents during this period and the public should exercise caution near the beaches.

Tides will high normal levels (new moon phase) but no storm surge is expected. The combination of large waves and tides will lead to water running up fairly high along the shorelines but we're not expecting that to cause any issues.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force east to southeast winds are expected for the southwestern portion of the Maritimes marine district Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. There is a small possibility that storm force winds could reach the far southern part of Georges Bank. Gale warnings have been issued for Georges Bank, Browns Bank and southwestern half of West Scotian Slope.

Forecaster: Mercer

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

FXUS61 KCAR 202006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
406 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical storm Jose will move to a position a couple hundred
miles southeast of Cape Cod tonight, then stall and begin to
retreat back south. High pressure will build down from the north
across our region later today into tonight.


Currently a strong high pressure ridge persist to the north of
the State blocking any further northward movement of Jose. This
ridge is expected to slowly drift to the south over the next 24
hours and remain strong and continue to block northward movement
of Jose. Expect mostly clear skies in the north and central
areas tonight as the high builds. Some clouds and fog are
possible along the coast.


High pressure will stretch across the area Friday and Saturday,
keeping it dry and mostly sunny across much of the area. As Jose
continues to linger well to the south, some clouds may linger
along the coast and over the marine zones. Some models show
occasional light QPF over the waters and along the immediate
coast, but at no particular point was there enough confidence
to go for any mention of showers. Above normal temps will
continue across the state for the end of the week, with a
further warm-up expected to begin Saturday.


Sun and Mon will be very warm for late September, with highs at
least 10 to 15 degrees above normal, especially on Sun. In some
spots, highs may approach record levels, though on both days
there is some concern that clouds may seep into the northern CWA
from a boundary slowly sagging south through Quebec. This front
may push through the CWA later Mon or Mon night, bringing a bit
of a cool down for mid-week - though in this case, it may only
revert toward normal temps. A complicating factor for Tue night
onward is the possibility of showers or steadier rainfall moving
into the state, drawn northward along the frontal boundary from
Maria and/or the remnant low of Jose. Most of the models show
some variation on this idea, but given the long forecast lead
time and the tendency for significant variations in tropical
cyclone track forecasts at that time frame, decision was made to
follow GYX`s lead and cap POPs at around 40 for now.


NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions next 24 hours.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Thurs night through
Saturday at all sites. Exceptions include patchy fog for KHUL to
KFVE Fri night, and for a slight risk for occasional MVFR CIGs
at KBHB. VFR conditions are expected again Sun and Mon for all
sites, except for possible MVFR CIGs in any widely isolated
shower activity for KPQI thru KFVE.


NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids,
however will reduce model winds by 15 percent to adjust expected
high bias due to the inversion resulting from the relatively
cold sea surface temperature resulting in an inversion in the
boundary layer. For Waves: The primary wave system is the long
period swell emanating from Tropical Storm Jose. Wave heights
are expected to increase a few feet tonight to a maximum of
11-12 feet/11-12 seconds tomorrow morning then begin to slowly
subside. Due to boundary conditions mentioned above, a secondary
northeast wind wave system has been slow to develop and not
expected to increase to levels advertised by wind models. Will
initialize the waves with the Nearshore Wave Prediction System
(NWPS) then lower the waves heights by 1 foot to adjust bias
resulting from the boundary layer conditons. Will extend the SCA
for seas until 0600Z. Will persist longer than this but evening
or Mid shift may need to transition to generic SCA as winds

SHORT TERM: Seas will remain elevated above SCA levels into
Friday, but may finally drop below criteria Fri evening or
night. NE`ly winds will remain strong Thu night into Fri, but
gusts should drop below 25kts Fri afternoon, and both winds and
seas should remain below hazardous levels through Saturday.


Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 11
seconds/7-8 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are
expected to increase in height Tonight then begin to slowly
subside Thursday Morning. Will extend the high surf advisory
through the day Thursday. Concern is that long period waves high
impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the
shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of
spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents
are also expected.

Warm air over sea surface temperatures in the 50s is creating a
strong inversion in the boundary layer and making it difficult
for stronger winds aloft from reaching the ocean surface.
Therefore model wind forcing is showing a high bias. As a result
expect increase water level from storm surge to remain well
under 1 foot. Also wave period has decreased somewhat today.
Therefore concern for splash-over and overtopping from long
period waves is reduced. High tide Tonight is at 11:50 PM and
Thursday Afternoon at 12:13 AM. There could be some minor slash-
over around these high tide cycles, however impact is now
expected to be minimal.

Total water levels inland from the coast are NOT expected to be
high enough for flooding.


ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Kredensor
Long Term...Kredensor
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

WTNT42 KNHC 202038

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

Jose has generally changed little since the previous advisory.
Geostationary and microwave satellite data show that the storm is
still producing well-defined convective bands on the north side of
the circulation.  Some of these outer bands are approaching the
southern New England coastline.  The initial wind speed is held at
60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data.  This estimate is also in
fair agreement with an ASCAT pass from earlier today, which also
showed that Jose has a very large wind field.  Another Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later this evening, and should provide a better assessment of
Jose's intensity.

The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt steered by a
trough over eastern Canada.  This trough should cause Jose to move
east-northeastward at a slower pace tonight.  Thereafter, the
trough is expected to bypass the storm, leaving Jose in very weak
steering currents.  As a result, Jose is forecast to drift westward
beginning Thursday night and continue in that direction through
the weekend.  The models have trended a little to the west at the
end of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast has followed

Jose is currently moving along the edge of the Gulf Stream, and is
expected to remain over this oceanic environment for a few more
days.  These relatively cool waters, a progressively drier airmass,
and an expected increase in wind shear should cause a gradual
weakening trend during the next several days.  The models are in
good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.


1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England during the next day or two, and a
tropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions for the next several days in these areas.

4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches
in Nantucket as it passes offshore.  This rainfall could cause
isolated flash flooding.


INIT  20/2100Z 39.2N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 39.6N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 39.6N  67.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 39.6N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 39.5N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/1800Z 39.3N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/1800Z 39.3N  70.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z 39.4N  71.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Cangialosi