Hurricane Sandy a potentially historic storm for New England and/or the Maritimes Part II

000
FXUS61 KCAR 251928
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
328 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY SANDY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&.....

.....LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOCUS IN LONG TERM IS ON WHAT SANDY WILL DO. WHILE THE MODELS ARE
HONING IN ON A SOLUTION...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY IN TIMING LANDFALL. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW IT MAKING LANDFALL BUT RANGING ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY ON MONDAY TO BETWEEN NYC AND BOSTON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WILL BASICALLY GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WITH A
LANDFALL ROUGHLY AROUND NYC TUESDAY MORNING. THAT WILL PUT NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. AS
SUCH...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE CARIBOU FORECAST AREA...AT
THIS POINT...IS FOR WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS...DECREASING TOWARD THE NORTH FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE
EASTERLY... GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT BANDS OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

ALL THIS BEING SAID...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
FORECAST. A MORE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PATH WOULD MEAN LESS IMPACT
FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. ON THE OTHER HAND A MORE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PATH WOULD MEAN HIGHER IMPACTS ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME
THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM......

000
WTNT43 KNHC 252037
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRUCTURAL CHANGES ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING WITH SANDY. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR WESTERN CUBA ARE
IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE
OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE STILL 109 KT AT THE END OF THE
LAST MISSION AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS AT 963 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME DECREASE IN
THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
SANDY BECOMES MORE ENTANGLED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SANDY REMAINING A VERY DEEP CYCLONE AND THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDING DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AS SANDY DEEPENS AGAIN OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
REGARDLESS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE CYCLONE AT OR NEAR
HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/17...AS SANDY HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE UPPER LOW. THE REASONING FOR THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. SANDY WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THEN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS NOW SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO SANDY INTERACTING
WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS INTERACTION...AS THE ECMWF HAS
SANDY FARTHER WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE SOONER
RELATIVE TO MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A WIDER
TURN AND A TRACK FARTHER NORTH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT IS
LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF SANDY. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 24.5N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 26.0N  76.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 27.4N  77.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 28.3N  77.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 29.8N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 33.0N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 37.5N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 40.5N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN 

WOCN31 CWHX 252345
Tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 9:00 PM ADT Thursday 25 October 2012
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Nova Scotia
=new= Prince Edward Island
=new= New Brunswick
=new= Southern Quebec
=new= Southern Ontario.

      For hurricane Sandy.

      The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

      This is a preliminary information statement to discuss the
      Potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy nearly reached Major hurricane status last night
As it approached Cuba.  The hurricane will be moving through the
Bahamas with winds in excess of 140 km/h tonight and Friday.  During 
the weekend Sandy is forecast to track northward while remaining at 
or near hurricane strength. Sandy will begin to lose some of its 
tropical characteristics early in the new week, it will however 
remain a large and powerful cyclone as it shifts toward the East
Coast of the United States.

Sandy will quite likely impact parts of Eastern Canada early next 
week.  The track and intensity will, as always, depend on many 
changing factors over a period of several days.  Thus, it is too 
early to meaningfully state how the storm will affect particular 
areas.  At this point in time we encourage consulting the forecasts 
periodically during the next few days.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings 
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/ROBICHAUD/COUTURIER