Here comes Hurricane Sandy, the Frankenstorm!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-271600-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY WILL TRACK EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOW MOVING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED LANDFALL NEAR OR SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER DUE TO THE EXPANDING SIZE OF THE
STORM SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY NORTHWARD THROUGH MAINE.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WIND...COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION. GREATEST THREAT IS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
WOCN31 CWHX 261745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:49 PM ADT Friday
26 October 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Nova Scotia
      Prince Edward Island
      New Brunswick
      Southern Quebec
      Southern Ontario.

      For hurricane Sandy.

      The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT Saturday.

      This is an updated preliminary information statement to discuss
      The potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada.
      The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing statements on
      Sandy every 6 hours beginning 9 AM ADT Saturday morning.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy has been moving northward through the Northwestern
Bahamas today with winds in excess of 120 km/h.  During the weekend
Sandy is forecast to continue to track north or northeastward while
remaining at or near hurricane strength.  Sandy will gradually lose
some of its tropical characteristics during the next few days.
On Monday Sandy is expected to take a turn to the northwest toward
the United States East Coast.  Current indications are that Sandy
will move inland on the United States East Coast on Tuesday as a very
large and powerful storm.  There are various factors influencing the
evolution of the storm.  As a result there is still a relatively high
degree of uncertainty in the impacts of the storm.

Based on the current forecast scenario, Southern and Eastern Ontario
are likely to see the most rainfall from this system.  These areas
will likely also be subject to strong and gusty winds as will
Southern Quebec and the Maritimes.  Although it is too early to nail
down any specific values, people living in these areas are urged to
pay close attention to messages from the Canadian Hurricane Centre
and local weather forecasts and possible future warnings throughout
the weekend.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End
000
FXUS61 KCAR 261943
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
343 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY SANDY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&.....

.....LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON TRACK OF SANDY...WITH THE LATEST TREND IN FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY PATH BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL AND THE GFS FOR THE WIND FORECAST AND MANUALLY MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GEM`S LOW BIAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STORM IS STILL AT LEAST THREE DAYS AWAY FROM LANDFALL AND THAT FURTHER FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACK WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, IT IS LOOKING LIKE A LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LANDFALL. NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. BUT CONSIDERING HOW BROAD THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME...SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL MAINE. ALONG SHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-35 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS SANDY TRANSITIONS AWAY FROM TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO EXTRA-TROPICAL. HIGHEST WINDS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY DURING WHICH TIME SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AND WILL ALSO LEAD TO STORM SURGE AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TUESDAY. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY EVENING. BEYOND THIS TIME, SANDY LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS THE STORM GRADUALLY WEAKENS WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUING HOWEVER.

-- End Changed Discussion --......

 

000
WTNT43 KNHC 262059
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE SYSTEM.  THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE DROPPING BELOW
HURRICANE STATUS.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT PENDING
THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR A 0000
UTC CENTER FIX.  THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE THE NHC
FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE
PRESUMABLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREACST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT SANDY COULD TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3
TO 4 DAYS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER SLOW AND...IN FACT...RECENT
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER A MORE REPRESENTATIVE ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NEAR 360/6.
AFTER SANDY ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS WEST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY AROUND 72
HOURS...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND A RIDGE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD AND OVER THE
U.S. COAST.  INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 27.3N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  27/0600Z 28.3N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  27/1800Z 29.7N  76.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  28/0600Z 31.3N  74.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  28/1800Z 33.1N  72.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  29/1800Z 37.0N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  30/1800Z 39.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1800Z 41.0N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH