Hurricane Fiona (Category 2) A Long-range Threat To The Region
000
FXUS61 KCAR 200132
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
932 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the west overnight, cross the
Gulf of Maine Tuesday, then exit across the Maritimes Wednesday.
A cold front will cross the region Thursday. Low pressure will
intensify across the Maritimes Friday into Saturday.....
...SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will exit to the east Tuesday night, allowing for
rain showers to taper off across the region. Light northerly
winds and clearing skies overnight will allow for temperatures
to drop to around average for this time of year, with lows
across the north falling into the low to mid 40s, and near the
coast temperatures remaining around 50 through the night. Some
colder valleys in the North Woods may see temperatures into the
30s early Wednesday morning.
Dry conditions will persist on Wednesday, with partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures in the 60s. The narrow ridge of high
pressure responsible for this weather will not last long,
however, as the next system approaches from the west Wednesday
night.
A strong cold front will cross the region on Thursday, bringing
widespread rain to the area. This front may tap into moisture
surrounding Hurricane Fiona, which would fuel stratiform rain
into the Downeast region. Should the ridge of high pressure
ahead of this front be strong enough, however, enough of a pause
will exist to limit this source of moisture. The front will be
progressive in nature and clear off the coast Thursday evening.....
409
WTNT32 KNHC 200249
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022
...CORE OF FIONA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE EASTERNMOST TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be nearing completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 70.3 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a
turn toward the north Tuesday night or Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Fiona will pass near easternmost Turks and
Caicos late tonight or early Tuesday.
Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110
mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
expected during the next couple of days, and Fiona is forecast to
become a major hurricane later tonight or on Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
beginning later tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm and
hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
in the Dominican Republic tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:
British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm
Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.
Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 3 to 6 inches with local maximum of
8 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over 30
inches.
Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 3 inches with local maximum of
5 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20
inches.
Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches
with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the
eastern section.
Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.
Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.
Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.
These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across
Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for
eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos tonight into Tuesday.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.
Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas
in areas of onshore winds tonight into Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will continue
to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the
central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United
States through midweek. The swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
000
WTNT42 KNHC 200253
TCDAT2
Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022
The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved
significantly this evening. The eye has warmed and become more
distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and
is more symmetric. More recently, the eye has become smaller in
size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm
this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to
around 10 n mi in diameter. The NOAA plane has measured a peak
flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force
aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt.
Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data
support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt.
The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly
shear of the storm. Although this shear is not forecast to abate
much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist
atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the
next 24 to 48 hours. Given the recent improvement in structure,
the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate
of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the
upper end of the intensity guidance. The official forecast shows
Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the
hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so. Eyewall replacement
cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the
24-72 h time period. By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to
interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start
the system's extratropical transition. The process is forecast to
be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to
remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5.
The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast
philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast
cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours,
Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a
strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The
track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance
envelope.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico
and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight.
These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening
and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides
across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is
likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with
tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning
late tonight or early Tuesday.
3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 20.6N 70.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.8N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 26.3N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 39.8N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 49.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
posted by Advackia at 8:35 PM
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