WTNT44 KNHC 040300
TCDAT4
Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020
NWS Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Isaias re-intensified to a
hurricane despite a less than impressive appearance in satellite
imagery. The aircraft reported 117 kt winds at 700 mb to the
east of the center, but these were not mixed to the surface by
the weak convection in that area, as the maximum SFMR winds were 75
kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.
The hurricane is moving 020/19, and a faster forward speed is
expected as the system moves farther into the mid-latitude
southwesterly flow. This should bring the center onshore in
southern North Carolina shortly, followed by a track through the
mid-Atlantic and western New England states Tuesday and Tuesday
night and into southeastern Canada early Wednesday.
Interaction with a strong jet stream suggests that Isaias should
weaken more slowly than normal as it moves through the eastern
United States, and this should produce very strong wind gusts along
the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at
24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the
Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed
by a larger extratropical low over Canada in about 72 h.
Key Messages:
1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including
portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the southern portion of
the hurricane Warning area and should spread northward through
tonight and early tomorrow morning.
3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later
tonight and on Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power
outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across
New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-
responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor
river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 33.8N 78.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 37.0N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 46.8N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/1200Z 52.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Gray ME
1054 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
MEZ007>009-012-013-NHZ001>009-011-015-041100-
/O.CON.KGYX.FF.A.0002.200804T1800Z-200805T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-
Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-
Merrimack-Belknap-Cheshire-Western And Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Albany, Peterborough, Upton, Phillips, Sugar
Hill, Brookfield, Kingfield, Cornish, Milford, Jay, Avon,
Charlestown, Pittston Farm, Wakefield, Newport, Woodstock, New
Sharon, Keene, Goshen, Chatham, Gilsum, Sullivan, Conway, Andover,
Ossipee, Milan, Waterville Valley, Rangeley, Jackson, Wilton,
Wilsons Mills, Byron, Unity, Crawford Notch, Norway, Grantham,
Wolfeboro, Claremont, Moosehead, Berlin, Weare, Jackman, Hooksett,
Long Pond, Seboomook, Oquossoc, Locke Mills, North Conway, Davis,
Mont Vernon, Holderness, Amherst, York Pond, Dummer, Brassua,
Lancaster, Middle Dam, Thornton, Bryant Pond, Fryeburg,
Moultonborough, Temple, Bingham, Bethel, Littleton, Colebrook,
Dunbarton, Lincoln, Bridgewater, Roxbury, Meredith, Errol, Laconia,
Marlow, Canterbury, Tuftonboro, Lempster, Coburn Gore, New Vineyard,
Concord, Lebanon, Chesterville, Croydon, Bethlehem, New Portland,
Rumford, Sharon, Farmington, Lyme, Goffstown, Rumney, Millsfield,
Jaffrey, Loudon, Boscawen, Oxford, Milton, Hanover, Newry, Hollis,
Plymouth, Ashland, South Arm, Surry, Gilford, and Ellsworth
1054 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* Portions of Maine and New Hampshire, including the following
areas, in Maine, Central Somerset, Northern Franklin, Northern
Oxford, Southern Franklin and Southern Oxford. In New Hampshire,
Belknap, Cheshire, Merrimack, Northern Carroll, Northern Coos,
Northern Grafton, Southern Carroll, Southern Coos, Southern
Grafton, Sullivan and Western And Central Hillsborough.
* From Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
* Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts is
expected from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The
expected heavy rainfall rates have the potential to cause
localized flash flooding.
* Localized sharp rises on streams and rivers are expected. Flash
flooding may occur in complex terrain and poor drainage areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A flash flood watch means that conditions may developed that lead to
flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
flash flood warnings be issues.
&&
$$
Legro
9:07 PM ADT Monday 03 August 2020
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
New Brunswick
Québec - south:
Amqui - Matapédia Valley
Beauce
Charlevoix
Eastern Townships
Forillon National Park - Gaspé - Percé
Gaspésie National Park - Murdochville
Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup - Trois-Pistoles
Matane
Montmagny - L'Islet
New Carlisle - Chandler
Québec
Restigouche - Bonaventure
Rimouski - Mont-Joli
Sainte-Anne-des-Monts - Grande-Vallée
Témiscouata
For Hurricane Isaias.
The next information statement will be issued by 02:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday.
1. Summary of basic information at 8:00 p.m. EDT.
Location: 32.8 North 79.0 West.
About 100 kilometres south of Myrtle Beach, SC.
Maximum sustained winds: 120 kilometres per hour.
Present movement: north-northeast at 26 kilometres per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 988 millibars.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs). Isaias is expected to approach Quebec and New Brunswick through Maine Tuesday night into Wednesday. The most likely impacts for Canada will be the potential for heavy rainfall in southern and eastern parts of Quebec and moderate gusty winds.
a. Wind.
Southerly winds gusting to 60 km/h are possible over New Brunswick and parts of Quebec including the Gaspe region.
b. Rainfall.
A brief period of heavy rain is likely over parts of southern Quebec early Wednesday. The eastern Townships northward to the Quebec City area is most likely to be affected with up to 60 mm. The rain will fall over a short period of time (2-3 hours) therefore some minor flooding may occur in prone locations.
c. Surge/Waves.
Nothing significant expected. Waves of 2-3 m along the southwestern portion of New Brunswick are expected Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Marginal gale-force winds can be expected over westernmost Maritime marine regions including the mouth of the St. Lawrence River Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Forecaster: Fogarty/Hatt
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.
Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
National Weather Service Gray ME AL092020
931 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
MEZ019-040945-
/O.CON.KGYX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Central Interior Cumberland-
931 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Gray
- New Gloucester
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes are damaged, especially if
unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous
projectiles.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted, leading to downed
power lines.
- Many roads are impassable from debris, caused by downed
trees and power lines. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Numerous power and communications outages likely.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://ready.gov/hurricanes
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 040058 AAA
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
858 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region tonight. Isaias will
approach Tuesday night then track northeast across western
Maine Wednesday. An upper low will track north of the region
Thursday. High pressure will build across the area Friday into
Saturday.
Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 27
National Weather Service Caribou ME AL092020
519 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
MEZ006-040530-
/O.CON.KCAR.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Southeast Aroostook-
519 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020.....
Previous discussion:
An isolated shower is possible across the north and mountains
this evening. Otherwise, high pressure will cross the region
tonight with generally partly cloudy skies. However, clouds
could increase across western areas late along with a slight
chance of rain. Patchy fog is also possible late. Clouds will
increase Tuesday. Moisture in advance of Isaias will begin to
increase across the forecast area Tuesday. Rain chances will
increase, from west to east, Tuesday. Could also have the slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms across western areas. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to around 60
north, to around 60 to the lower 60s Downeast. High temperatures
Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 70s north, to the
upper 70s to around 80 Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tropical system Isaias is forecast to track northeast Tuesday
night to a position along the northwest Maine/Quebec border by
Wednesday morning. (Please continue to refer to the latest NHC
forecast for the latest information on the track of Isaias).
Based on the more westward track, our forecast QPF was adjusted to
show less in the way of rainfall across Downeast Maine, and somewhat
higher amounts across the central Maine Highlands and North Maine
Woods Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Expect rain to overspread the region Tuesday evening, especially
Western areas and continue overnight Tuesday. There will also be
the slight chance of a thunderstorm Tuesday night. The rain may
be locally heavy at times later Tuesday night, especially
across Western sections, and the higher terrain of the central
Maine Highlands. Tuesday night will be a muggy night with lows
only in the mid 60s most areas.
The remnants of Isaias will move quickly to the north of the
region early Wednesday with rainfall quickly diminishing across
northern sections.
Conditions will improve later Wednesday but there will continue to
be the chance for an afternoon shower or stray thunderstorm
Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will range from the the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The remnants of tropical storm Isaias will be lifting north of our
area and combining with an upper low over Quebec Wednesday night as
drier air circulating beneath the combined lows flows into our
region. This will bring clearing Wednesday night followed by a
mostly sunny and seasonably comfortable day Thursday as some cooler
and drier air continues into the region south of the low. High
pressure building into the area will bring a clear and cool night
Thursday night followed by a sunny and tranquil day on Friday. As we
go into the weekend an upper ridge will build over the area as a
broad area of high pressure remains at the surface. This will bring
a continuation of dry and tranquil weather with temperatures pushing
into the low to mid 80s Saturday then the mid to upper 80s Sunday.
The upper ridge will remain over the region on Monday as surface
high pressure begins to slide east of the region. This will produce
a light southerly breeze Monday with a bit of an increase in
humidity and a continued mostly sunny sky......
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Houlton
- Island Falls
- Hodgdon
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little or no
potential for flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: There is little or no potential for flooding rain.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations are needed to protect
against flooding rain at this time.
- ACT: Monitor for changes to the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from flooding rain.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://maine.gov/mema/weather/hurricane.shtml
