Tropical Storm Nicole Is Heading Our Way
000
FXUS61 KCAR 090445
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1145 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the area Wednesday, then slide
south of the region Thursday into Friday. Low pressure will
approach from the south Friday night and cross the area
Saturday, and pull away from the region Sunday.....
......LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Longer range models are in relatively good agreement with the
track of the remnant low pres of Nicole tracking from the Cntrl
Aplchns to Nrn ME later Fri Ngt into Sat. Rn from this system
will spread SW to NE across the FA by late Fri Ngt and cont into
Sat, with some models showing two pulses of heavier rnfl, one
in the late ngt/erly morn hrs Fri Ngt/Sat Morn and perhaps
another on the late morn/erly aftn hrs Sat. Given uncertainty
whether these two pulses of heavier rnfl will overlap, its still
a little to erly to discuss flood watches attm, but we will be
watching for this possibility as we get closer to the event. Low
temps Fri Ngt and highs on Sat will also be challenging with
most models indicating cooler air trying to wedge back into NW
and far NE ME by Sat morn, implying potentially large
differences between the far N and Cntrl/Downeast areas. Areas
more squarely in the warm sector will likely have at least mdt
to possibly strong SSE sfc winds.
Rn will taper to sct shwrs from SW to NE across the FA Sat
Aftn/Sat eve and then end ovr the area late Sat Ngt with
lessening WSW wind speeds with the passage of a cold/occluded
front. Sun attm looks to be ptly cldy and cooler as weak sfc hi
pres from the W settles ovr the FA.
Sun Ngt til Mon Morn looks uncertain attm, with models split
between cont`d fair conditions and the possibility of a second
more coastal sfc low from off the Mid Atlc coast affecting the
FA as it moves toward the Can Maritimes. With colder air in
place, any precip beginning as rn would transition to sn by late
Sun Ngt and Mon Morn, before tapering off and ending Mon Aftn. A
few ensbls of different opnl models ovr the last few runs even
have a sig precip event, enough for wntr wx hdlns if they came
true. But for now, we indicate only a chc of rn/rn shwrs chg to
sn/sn shwrs for msly Ern ptns of the FA durg this tm, and will
wait for more definitive trends. Following this system, Mon Ngt
and Tue looks to fair with seasonable temps at this tm.....
000
WTNT32 KNHC 090256
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022
...NICOLE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE HEADED FOR THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west along the Florida
panhandle from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* Anclote River Florida to Indian Pass Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 74.8 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-southwestward to westward motion is expected through early
Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later
on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on
Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas overnight, move near
or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of
Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night or early
Thursday. Nicole's center is then expected to move across central
and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday
night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane later
tonight and remain a hurricane when it reaches the east coast of
Florida.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night or Thursday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:
Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.
Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.
Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida
into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning
late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.
SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
000
WTNT42 KNHC 090257
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022
Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this
afternoon. Deep convection is not very strong near the center of
the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air
intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor
imagery. Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is
very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity
is set to 60 kt.
Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving
west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast
philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory
package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the
south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24
hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then
northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole
is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model
guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official
forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for
the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance
thereafter.
Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius during the next day or so. However, the SHIPS guidance
indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with
low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent,
during the next 24 hours. Nicole is likely to become a hurricane
soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment,
significant strengthening seems unlikely. The official intensity
forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely
follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall. Weakening is expected
after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it
accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States. The
cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and
merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120
hours.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.
4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.
5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River. On Friday and Saturday, flash,
urban and small stream flooding will be possible in the Southeast
through the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 27.1N 74.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.9N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 32.8N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 47.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
938 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-100245-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
938 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Heavy rain is possible late Friday night into Saturday morning which
could result in some minor flooding.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
$$
2:20 PM AST Tuesday 08 November 2022
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
New Brunswick
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
Québec - south:
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
The next information statement will be issued by 2:00 p.m. AST Wednesday.
For Tropical Storm Nicole.
Tropical Storm Nicole currently north of the Bahamas will head toward Florida and possibly landfall as a category-one hurricane early Thursday. Nicole will then turn northward travelling over land (Georgia, The Carolinas) while merging with a cold front and becoming post tropical. The combined weather system is expected to track through New England early Saturday and into the Maritimes Saturday evening.
Since the storm is expected to transition to 'post-tropical' well to our south, it will essentially be an autumn type storm while impacting Eastern Canada. Heavy rain will likely spread well north of the low's track into southern Quebec and perhaps even eastern Lake Ontario. Rain and wind is likely over the Maritime provinces with very mild, tropical temperatures and gusty winds south of the track and cold northeasterly winds north of it. Parts of central and eastern Quebec and eventually Newfoundlland could even see some snow, so this will clearly be a non-tropical storm and this bulletin is in effect for the 'tropical side' of the system.
The CHC will track this for a few days and we will issue a bulletin like this again tomorrow and likely one Thursday.
Forecaster: FOGARTY
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.
posted by Advackia at 9:57 PM
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