Extratropical Storm Philippe Arrives

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

958 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

MEZ001-002-006-081000-

/O.UPG.KCAR.WI.Y.0005.231008T0500Z-231008T1400Z/

/O.NEW.KCAR.HW.W.0002.231008T0158Z-231008T1400Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Southeast Aroostook-

Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,

Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,

Mars Hill, Ashland, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, and Smyrna Mills

958 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest Aroostook, Northeast Aroostook and Southeast

  Aroostook Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.

  Widespread power outages are expected, especially with leaves

  still on the trees. Travel will be difficult, especially for

  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around

trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of

your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if

you must drive.

&&

$$

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gray ME

953 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

MEC013-015-027-080500-

/O.NEW.KGYX.FA.W.0025.231008T0153Z-231008T0500Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Knox ME-Lincoln ME-Waldo ME-

953 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Maine, including the following

  counties, Knox, Lincoln and Waldo.

* WHEN...Until 100 AM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying

  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 952 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges

    indicated heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to

    begin shortly in the warned area. Between 2 and 2.5 inches of

    rain have fallen.

  - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in

    the warned area.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...

    Rockland, Belfast, Camden, Lincolnville, Searsport,

    Thorndike, Liberty, Bremen, Rockport and Thomaston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the

dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are

potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded

roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4456 6935 4467 6881 4453 6875 4423 6887

      4408 6854 4404 6856 4410 6862 4397 6859

      4404 6897 4396 6902 4390 6868 4374 6883

      4387 6897 4386 6919 4387 6919 4374 6938

$$

DS

9:59 PM ADT Saturday 7 October 2023

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

Maximum gusts: easterly 90 km/h.

Locations: Atlantic coastal counties of mainland Nova Scotia.

Time span: beginning later this evening in the west, and overnight in the east. Winds diminishing Sunday morning in the west, and Sunday afternoon in the east.

High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break. Utility outages may occur.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

9:57 PM ADT Saturday 7 October 2023

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 40 to 60 mm, locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: western half of New Brunswick. 

Time span: tonight through to Sunday morning.

Similar storms in the past have caused hazardous driving conditions and water pooling on roads.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

7:52 PM ADT Saturday 7 October 2023

This is the final forecast bulletin for the remnants of Post-Tropical Storm Philippe.  It will remain in effect tonight and be officially ended tomorrow possibly with a summary of observations after the storm.

1. Summary of basic information at 7:00 PM ADT.

Location: 37.0 North 63.5 West.

About 850 kilometres south of Yarmouth. 

Maximum sustained winds: about 90 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast around 30 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 994 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Reminder: This bulletin is in effect only for western and central parts of Nova Scotia including Halifax and adjacent waters. Rainfall and wind warnings are being managed by the Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre (ASPC). 

The remnants of Philippe and another low pressure system of subtropical origins are now a combined weather system that will impact parts of the Maritimes with strong winds and heavy rain tonight/early Sunday. 

Although this bulletin won't be extended eastward, recent trends in the models show that winds may be a bit stronger than originally expected over eastern sections of Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia including Cape Breton.  Forecast updates, if necessary, will be provided by the ASPC.

Rainfall warnings are in effect over westernmost Nova Scotia and wind warnings have been posted for basically all of Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia including the Halifax region.

By tomorrow morning everything will be merged with a much larger third low pressure system over Quebec. 

a. Wind.

Impacts: 

We don't expect winds to be as strong as Hurricane Lee so impacts may be limited mostly to the breaking of some tree branches with the occasional power/utility interruption.  If you have outdoor furnishings or halloween decorations, it would be a good idea to secure them or take them in for the night.

Details: 

Strong southeasterly winds gusting 70 kilometres per hour are expected with gusts to 90 over exposed areas. The strongest winds are expected to reach southwesternmost areas of the South Shore of Nova Scotia including Yarmouth and Shelburne this evening. These winds will reach the Halifax area and the Annapolis Valley overnight. Winds will shift to southwesterly and diminish Sunday morning. 

b. Rainfall.

Light to moderate rain will spread over western Nova Scotia by later this evening and become heavier at times and spread eastward reaching Halifax and most of the Annapolis Valley by midnight and Hants County after midnight. 

Rainfall amounts are forecast to be in the 40 to 60 millimetres range in Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, Queens and Lunenburg counties where there is a rainfall warning in effect. Rainfall amounts of 30 to 40 millimetres are forecast for Annapolis and Kings counties and Halifax Metro and Halifax County West. 20 to 30 millimetres are forecast for Hants County.

c. Surge/Waves.

Impacts:

As with the winds, we certainly don't expect waves and storm surge to be as bad as Lee, but the same stretch of coast impacted by Lee will be affected by ex-Philippe.  There could be some wave overwash and minor coastal flooding around high tide approximately 4:30 am.  It looks like the peak conditions will occur closer to low tide now, which is mid-morning tomorrow.

Details:

Significant wave heights over marine areas south of Nova Scotia are expected to be in excess of 5 metres - possibly up to 8 metres. The largest waves are expected overnight, subsiding during the day tomorrow.

Waves and water levels are not expected to be problematic in and around the Bay of Fundy due to the currently lower-amplitude tidal cycle. 

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Storm warnings are in effect for Lurcher, Browns Bank, Georges Bank, Southwestern Shore, Lahave Bank, West Scotian Slope and East Scotian Slope - southwestern half as well as the western halves of Eastern Shore and Sable. Gale warnings are in effect for Fundy and Grand Manan. 

Forecaster: Fogarty

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.