BERYL WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN

WOCN31 CWHX 210000
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 20 JULY 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

... BERYL WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.1 N AND LONGITUDE 71.3 W... ABOUT 85 NAUTICAL MILES OR 165 KM
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE COD . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. BERYL IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS... 22 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 20 9.00 PM 40.1N 71.3W 1002 45 83
JUL 21 9.00 AM 41.9N 68.5W 1002 40 74 BECOMING POST-TROPICAL
JUL 21 9.00 PM 44.1N 63.7W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 AM 46.1N 57.2W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 PM 47.8N 51.0W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 49.3N 46.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 51.3N 43.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 54.4N 41.3W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 PM 58.3N 40.2W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. IT IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW THAT WIND WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
NOVA SCOTIA. ROUGH SURF SHOULD STILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY AS BERYL PASSES.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS ARE MAINTAINED IN SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AND
ARE CARRIED FORWARD IN THE EXTENDED MARINE FORECASTS THROUGH CENTRAL
MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT BERYL WEAKENED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND DEVOLVED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND A TIGHT CENTRE. THIS
COUPLED WITH LATE AFTERNOON US RECON SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE REMAINS ABOVE 1000 MB AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 50 KTS. VISUAL SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT
BERYL BEGAN HEADING MORE TOWARD THE ENE BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z. WE STILL
EXPECT BERYL TO TRACK OVER COOLER WATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL FAVOUR
WEAKENING.

B. PROGNOSTIC
WE ARE IN
COMPLETE ACCORD WITH NHC WITH REGARD TO THE STORM SPEED AND MAX WINDS
BUT DIFFER ONLY OVER THE TRACK DIRECTION OVER NOVA SCOTIA. WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO TAKE IT INLAND AND THIS IS BASED ON TWO FACTORS.
FIRSTLY..THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS MORE ENE THAN NE. SECONDLY..OUR
EXPERIENCE WITH THESE TYPES OF STORMS TELLS US THAT THEY TEND TO
TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS..WHICH INDICATE THE
CENTER TRACKING FARTHER NORTH. ACCORDINGLY..WE FAVOUR BERYL PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA'S ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE STRUGGLING WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM AND
THE PARALLEL GLOBAL DOES NOT HAVE A MARKEDLY IMPROVED SOLUTION OVER
THE OPERATIONAL RUN..AN ASSESSMENT BASED ON ITS INITIAL HANDLING
OF THE STORM. ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE 18Z RUN OF THE UKMET TAKE THE
STORM FARTHER NORTH..MANY THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY. AS A RESULT
THEY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE ARE HARD-PRESSED TO SEE WHY
THE STORM WOULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD AT THIS POINT..SOMETHING REQUIRED
FOR THOSE SOLUTIONS TO WORK..SO WE ARE STICKING WITH OUR PREVIOUS
THINKING. REGARDING THE 18Z UKMET RUN..IT NOW HAS A MORE IDENTIFIABLE
FEATURE THAN THE 12Z RUN AND ITS VERSION OF BERYL REMAINS INTACT
THROUGH MARITIME WATERS AND HAS SIMILAR POSITION FOR 22/00Z AS OUR
CURRENT FORECAST..THAT IS..JUST SOUTH OF HALIFAX.

NO CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING REGARD EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION..WE
CONTINUE SEEING TRANSITION BEING COMPLETED BY THE TIME IT NEARS NOVA
SCOTIA WITH WEAKENING OF THE WARM CORE. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SINCE BERYL SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED-OUT AHEAD BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE
MARITIMES.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
WE HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN WARNINGS AND WIND SPEEDS. DETAILED FORECASTS ARE FOUND UNDER
FORECAST HEADERS FPCN11/14/15 CWHX FOR THE MARITIME PROVINCES. MORE
DETAILS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND'S SATURDAY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

D. MARINE WEATHER
IN LIGHT OF THE WEAKER WINDS WITH THE STORM..THE CHC WAVE MODEL
NOW GENERATES ONLY MAX SIG WAVES OF NEART 6 METRES.


PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/00Z 120 90 60 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
21/12Z 125 90 60 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/00Z 140 95 65 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 150 105 70 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 160 115 70 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 175 120 70 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END BOWYER/FOGARTY

Weather Report For Johnson Settlement NB, Recorded At 2100 UCT On 07/20/2006

Temp: Current; 25.7 C/78 F, High; 28.2 C/83 F, Low; 12.3 C/54 F


Hum: 55%


Bar: 1017 mb/30.05 Inches; Falling Rapidly


Sky: Mainly Sunny; Scatt Cumulus, over whole sky, and strand of Cirrus & Cirrostratus , in the far SW


Wind: SW; 5 gusting to 15 mph/8 gusting to 24 km/h


Precip: None


Total Precip: None


Note: Highest Barometeric Pressure of the month, thus far, 1023 mb/30.21 Inches, recorded at 8:30 AM Local Time (ADT).

A few brief peak wind gusts of 30 mph/48 km/h, occurred this afternoon.

Heavy Rainfall Warnings Issued For Western Nova Scotia

Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings
Warnings
Shelburne County
4:16 PM ADT Thursday 20 July 2006
Rainfall warning for
Shelburne County issued

Rainfall amounts up to 50 millimetres or more are forecast Friday.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.


The remnants of tropical storm Beryl are forecast to brush the atlantic coast of Nova Scotia late Friday. Rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres are forecast across western portions of Nova Scotia Friday with higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 20 to 30 millimetres are forecast over eastern sections. It is possible that rainfall warnings may need to be extended as the system tracks along the coast. Also wind gusts of up to 80 km/h are forecast along the atlantic coast with this system.

Tropical Storm BERYL Update; Public Advisory No. 10

000
WTNT32 KNHC 202030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...BERYL GRADUALLY WEAKENING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND FORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH BERYL. THESE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...39.6 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Surface chart created this afternoon depicting TS Beryl, still a 50 kt system, but now centered off the Coast of New Jersey. The storm is moving NNE at 9 kt per hour, and may merge with a frontal low moving in from the West over the Region tomorrow. 

Doppler Radar image taken this afternoon showing the Northern half of TS Beryl, still a 50 kt system, but now centered off the Coast of New Jersey. The storm is moving NNE at 9 kt per hour, and is expected to affect the Region tomorrow. 

Visible Satellite image taken this afternoon of TS Beryl, still a 50 kt system, but now centered off the Coast of New Jersey. The storm is moving NNE at 9 kt per hour, and is expected to affect this Region tomorrow. 

BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN MARITIMES

WOCN31 CWHX 201800
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 20 JULY 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

... BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN MARITIMES...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.4 N AND LONGITUDE 72.4 W... ABOUT 95 NAUTICAL MILES OR 180 KM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000 MB.
BERYL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS... 18 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 20 3.00 PM 39.4N 72.4W 1000 50 93
JUL 21 3.00 AM 40.8N 70.3W 1000 50 93 UNDERGOING TRANSITION
JUL 21 3.00 PM 43.0N 66.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 3.00 AM 45.3N 60.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 3.00 PM 47.0N 53.6W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 AM 48.5N 48.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 50.1N 45.0W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 52.5N 42.1W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 56.2N 40.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 25 3.00 AM 60.4N 39.9W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE ATLANTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE WILL BE ISSUING RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. GUSTS OF 80 KM/H MAY BRUSH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. WIND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED BUT HAVE NOT BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL WAVES SHOULD BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE
FRIDAY AS BERYL
PASSES.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS ARE MAINTAINED IN SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AND
ARE CARRIED FORWARD IN THE EXTENDED MARINE FORECASTS THROUGH CENTRAL
MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
A CLEAR AREA WITHIN THE STORM CENTRE... DARE WE CALL IT AN EYE...
DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AT THE SAME TIME THAT CONVECTIVE TOPS
WARMED RAPIDLY. NHC INVESTIGATIONS CONTINUE MAINTAINING THIS AS A
50-KNOT WIND SYSTEM AND SURFACE OBS ARE IN ACCORD. LOW CLOUD
FILLED INTO THE "EYE" GIVING A CLEAR INDICATION OF THE LLCC ON VIS
IMAGERY. BERYL APPEARS TO BE WOBBLING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TRACK TIMING.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FROM DISCUSSION WITH NHC WE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT BERYL SHOULD HAVE
COMPLETED ET DURING THE DAY TOMORROW... HENCE THE LAST NHC POSITION
IS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AT 00Z. WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE RESPONSE ZONE
AS A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM.

THERE IS INSUFFICIENT NEW INFORMATION AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THE FINAL NHC POSITION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
OUR TRACK HOWEVER WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR PREVIOUS TRACK SPEED SINCE
THE NEW GEM SHORTWAVE IS ACTUALLY FASTER AND WE BELIEVE THAT THE
POST TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE MORE BAROCLINIC AT THAT POINT AND LIKELY
MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BERYL WILL BE
SHEARED AWAY AND UNDERGOING ACCELERATION BEFORE GETTING ENTANGLED
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A REDEVELOPER AT
THIS TIME. OUR FORECAST TRACK FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE
DEFINED BY THE 12Z UKMET AND GFDL RUNS. THE 12Z CYCLONE PHASE RUNS
ARE NOT AVAILABLE PRIOR TO ISSUE TIME SO WE ARE CONTINUING WITH
THINKING
OF PREVIOUS MESSAGE REGARDING ET.

THIS TRACK TAKES BERYL OVER A TONGUE OF MUCH COOLER WATER BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT AND COUPLED WITH THE GREATER SHEAR AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD
START WEAKENING. IF ANYTHING OUR MAX WIND STRENGTH MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE.

THE APPARENT STORM WOBBLED MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TRACK SPEED
HOWEVER WE HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS INTO THINGS AT THIS TIME.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF BERYLS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND HOW
MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE WILL LIKELY FORECAST GUSTS OF
80 KM/H ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN REGIONS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE VERY TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES
ET BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 100 MM ARE NOT UNREASONABLE WITH A STORM OF
THIS NATURE.

D. MARINE WEATHER
THE CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL GENERATES 8M WAVES LATE FRIDAY BECAUSE
THE STORM TRACK IS ON A STRAIGHT LINE AND INCREASING UNIFORMLY IN
SPEED... SO RESONANCE IS A GOOD BET. WHETHER THEY REACH 8 METRES IS
HARD TO SAY... BUT GIVEN THE TRACK AND WIND STRENGTH 6-7 METRES IS
A GOOD BET. THESE WAVES WILL BE ON A DIRECT LINE TOWARDS THE CAPE
SABLE AREA OF NOVA SCOTIA BUT WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL THE STORM
ITSELF ARRIVES.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/18Z 120 90 60 50 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0
21/06Z 120 90 60 50 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0
21/18Z 135 95 65 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 150 100 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 155 110 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 170 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END BOWYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NEW BRUNSWICK

Special Weather Statements for New Brunswick

WOCN14 CWHX 201432
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NEW BRUNSWICK ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AT 11:20 AM ADT THURSDAY 20 JULY 2006.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL ARE FORECAST TO BRUSH THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. ALSO A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TO LIE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK FRIDAY.
MOISTURE FROM BERYL WILL FEED INTO THE FRONT AND LEAD TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20
TO 30 MILLIMETRES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK
FRIDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AS WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED.

END/ASPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOVA SCOTIA

Special Weather Statements for Nova Scotia

WOCN11 CWHX 201433
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOVA SCOTIA ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AT 11:20 AM ADT THURSDAY 20 JULY 2006.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL ARE FORECAST TO BRUSH THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO
30 MILLIMETRES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 80 KM/H ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL AND
WIND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
IS REFINED.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AS WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED.

END/ASPC

Tropical Storm BERYL Public Advisory No. 9

000
WTNT32 KNHC 201502
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...CORRECTED TO CHANGE FORT JEFFERSON TO PORT JEFFERSON...

...RAINS FROM BERYL ALREADY AFFECTING LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...EXPECTED TO INCREASE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN
CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND
PORT JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 220
MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH BERYL. THESE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...38.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TS BERYL TO BRUSH ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY

WOCN31 CWHX 201200 CCA
CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
THURSDAY 20 JULY 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

... CORRECTIONS DUE TO TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS ...

... TS BERYL TO BRUSH ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
38.2 N AND LONGITUDE 73.0 W... ABOUT 105 NAUTICAL MILES OR 190 KM
SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1001
MB. BERYL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS... 17 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 20 9.00 AM 38.2N 73.0W 1001 50 93
JUL 20 9.00 PM 39.8N 71.7W 998 55 102
JUL 21 9.00 AM 41.8N 68.9W 998 50 93
JUL 21 9.00 PM 44.3N 64.5W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 AM 46.4N 56.9W 1001 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 PM 47.6N 50.3W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 49.3N 46.6W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 51.0N 43.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 54.1N 40.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 PM 58.3N 40.2W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
20 TO 30 MM OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. GUSTS OF 80 KM/H MAY BRUSH
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. WIND WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED IN SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AND
GALES ARE CARRIED FORWARD IN THE EXTENDED MARINE FORECASTS BASED ON
OUR FORECAST TRACK OF BERYL.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
?HERE WAS A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE STORM CENTRE BASED ON AIR
RECON AT 06Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM CENTRE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION. 12Z POSITION BASED ON NHC UPDATED MESSAGE INDICATING IT
IS A RECON FIX.

B. PROGNOSTIC
TRACK FOLLOWS NHC GUIDANCE. ?HE 06Z ADJUSTMENT RESULTED IN A WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN OUR FORECAST TRACK. WE GENERALLY FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE
OVER NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT BERYL NOW CROSSES THE
COASTLINE OF NOVA SCOTIA.

BERYL WILL SHOW SLIGHT STRENGHTENING OVER NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATER. ONCE BERYL PASSES NORTH OF 41N IT
MOVES INTO COLDER WATER AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
AT 00Z UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED A VORT TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WHICH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO LIE ABOUT 6 DEG NORTHWEST OF BERYL
BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME BERYL COMES UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW AND BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TO LIE OVER NE NEW BRUNSWICK
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE FROM BERYL IS EXPECTED TO FEED INTO THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM THUS LEADING TO HEAVIER PCPN OVER NB.
THE GFS AND CDN GBL MODELS GRAB BERYL AND PLACE IT ON FRONT AT 48HR.
GEM MAKES A GOOD JOB OF KEEPING BERYL OFF SOUTH SHORE OF NS ALBEIT A
BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST. USED 500 MB VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
BERYL WHICH GFS AND GLOBAL PRESERVED DESPITE THEIR SURFACE
INTERACTION WITH FRONT. FOLLOWED THIS VORT TROUGH AND
CORRESPONDING UPPER FLOW TO KEEP BERYL SOUTH OF THE BURIN
PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE FORECAST A TRACK
SOMEWHAT SOUTH AND MUCH FASTER UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS LOSES VORT IDENTITY
ONCE BERYL PASSES THROUGH CAPE RACE SO UTILISED CDN GLB
THROUGH REMAINING CANADIAN WATERS. THEREAFTER THE REMNANTS OF
BERYL SLIDES TOWARD GREENLAND UP THE REAR FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE.
THIS AGREES WITH NOGAPS EXCEPT THAT IT PUSHES BERYL THROUGH UPPER
RIDGE.

THE 0533Z RUN OF THE GFDL TAKES BERYL ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT IT REMAINS AS AN OUTLIER... HOWEVER
THE CURRENT MOTION WOULD LEAN ONE TO THINK IT LOOKS MORE APPROPRIATE
IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. WE ARE WATCHING THIS.

FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE FOR NOGAPS AND GFS SHOW RAPID TRANSITION
ON THE 21ST... SUCH THAT TRANSITION MAY BE COMPLETED BY THE TIME
IT REACHES WESTERN MARITIME WATERS. INTERESTINGLY THESE MODELS
MOVE IT ALMOST DIRECTLY FROM SYMMETRIC WARM CORE TO ASYMMETRIC
COLD CORE . . . BUT THE TRANSITION IS RATHER QUICK. OTHER MODELS
KEEP IT LOOKING MOSTLY TROPICAL HOWEVER IT IS HARD TO NOT EXPECT
TRANSITION CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT WILL BE
DRIVING IT THROUGH CANADIAN WATERS.

OF COURSE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN ALL OF THIS. TO WHAT DEGREE
WILL THE FRONT INTERACT WITH BERYL IS A TROUBLING QUESTION..
ESPECIALLY NOW THAT BERYL WAS REPORTED FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED
AT 06Z. TO THIS POINT WE ARE FAVOURING BERYL AS AN ENTITY THAT IS
SEPARATE FROM THE FRONT.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
A TRACK THAT IS FARTHER WEST WILL REQUIRE A RE-THINK ON OUR RAIN
AMOUNTS. BERYL IS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES AS IT PASSES THROUGH
NS.. HOWEVER SINCE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN THIS MAY REQUIRE A RETHINK OF OUR P.E.I. AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY OVER NOVA SCOTIA. WIND MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE AS ASPC
FORECASTS HAVE GUSTS TO 70 KM/H OVER SOUTH SHORE LATE FRIDAY WHICH
MATCHES THEIR CURRENT MARINE WARNINGS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK MAY REQUIRE AN ADJUSTMENT OF ASPC MARINE
FORECASTS ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO DIRECTION.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/12Z 120 90 60 50 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0
21/00Z 120 90 60 50 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0
21/12Z 120 90 60 50 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0
22/00Z 150 100 70 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 150 100 70 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 160 120 70 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END CAMPBELL/BOWYER