Early September Rainstorm, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaac Update Six

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
9:49 PM ADT Wednesday 05 September 2012
Rainfall warning for
Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County continued

An additional 20-30 millimeters of rain is expected tonight.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system over Nova Scotia will track eastward to lie over Cape Breton by Thursday evening. Rain associated with this system will be heavy at times tonight. The rain will begin to taper off before morning. An additional 20 to 30 millimeters of rain can be expected with some localized areas possibly receiving up to 100 millimeters by Thursday morning.

Also Les Suetes winds gusting up to 100 km/h have developed and will continue overnight in Cape Breton from Margaree Harbour to bay St. Lawrence.

Hurricane Leslie a potential long range threat to the region update seven

000
WTNT32 KNHC 060240
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 62.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST.  LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.  A NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REAMIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.  NOAA BUOY 41049 TO THE NORTHWEST OF LESLIE RECENTLY
REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT42 KNHC 060240
TCDAT2

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

RECENT TRMM AND SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS NOT
FORMED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AND IN FACT...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED.  THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION OF
WESTERLY SHEAR AS WELL...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7/4.3.

BASED ON RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE FIXES...THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
010/2 KT.  LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD CREEP FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE HURRICANE
SHOULD GAIN SOME NORTHWARD MOMENTUM BY DAY 3 ONCE A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFS MODEL HAS
SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST ON THIS CYCLE AND IS THE EASTERNMOST AND
SLOWEST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  SINCE THIS
HAS NOT YET TURNED INTO A CONSISTENT TREND...THE NHC FORECAST IS
BEING KEPT CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

LESLIE IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  A CROSS SECTION BASED ON GFS MODEL DATA SHOWS AIR WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT ABUTTING AGAINST THE
CIRCULATION IN THE 250-500 MB LAYER.  SINCE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT LESLIE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE DRY
AIR COULD CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO THE CIRCULATION.  IN ADDITION...
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THE SEA SURFACE BENEATH LESLIE IS
COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING...AND THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE AS LONG
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES SO SLOWLY.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. 

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 26.2N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 26.4N  62.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 26.8N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 27.1N  63.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 27.7N  63.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  09/0000Z 30.5N  64.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  10/0000Z 35.5N  63.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 44.0N  59.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Early September Rainstorm, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaac Update Five

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
4:32 PM ADT Wednesday 05 September 2012
Rainfall warning for
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West issued

Total amounts up to 70 millimetres of rain are likely for much of mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system over Southwestern New Brunswick will track eastward to lie over Cape Breton by Thursday evening. Rain associated with this system will be heavy at times tonight. Rain will taper to showers this evening in the southwest and Thursday afternoon in Cape Breton. Total rainfall amounts are expected to reach 60 to 70 millimeters with some localized areas possibly receiving up to 100 millimeters by Thursday morning.

Also Les Suetes winds gusting up to 100 km/h are expected to develop this evening and continue overnight in Cape Breton from Margaree Harbour to bay St. Lawrence.

Hurricane Leslie a potential long range threat to the region update six

000
FXUS61 KCAR 051927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012......

.....LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.....

........LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WHAT SHOULD THEN BE HURRICANE LESLIE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF CROSSING MAINE SHOULD STEER THE STORM EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH FROM LESLIE INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. A PERIOD OF HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK AS LARGE WAVES WILL BE PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM`S CENTER. FINALLY, A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE STORM TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES LATER MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY........

WOCN31 CWHX 051745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3:10 PM ADT Wednesday
5 September 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Atlantic provinces.

      For hurricane Leslie.

      The next statement will be issued at 9:00 AM ADT Thursday.

      General discussion regarding recently-upgraded hurricane Leslie
      And possible influence in Eastern Canada.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is monitoring the development of
hurricane Leslie.  The storm is expected to move very slowly and
intensify gradually over the next 3 days.  Computer models are
predicting Leslie to only travel 250 kilometres over the next 2 days
which is basically a person's average speed of walking.  With such a
slow speed of travel and the fact that the storm is still in its
organizing stage, there is much (more than usual) uncertainty in the
predicted path and intensity.

Computer models indicate that Leslie should eventually push through
the large 'Bermuda high' and accelerate toward Eastern Canada with a
range of track scenarios spanning Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
The middle of these track forecasts crosses through Newfoundland -
but even that 'average' will likely shift several times with each new
run of simulations.  If Leslie makes it to Eastern Canada, it would
not likely do so until early next week.  There are other factors such
as 'cold-water upwelling' and 'high pressure building' resulting from
the hurricane itself that the computer models can sometimes fail to
predict.  Thus, the range of scenarios may be even broader than those
models indicate now.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will continue issuing these general
information statements on Thursday with more detailed track
information forecasts likely beginning on Friday.

Visit WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (all in lower
case) for the latest hurricane track map.

END/FOGARTY

August 2012: Warmest on Record for Caribou and 2nd Warmest for Houlton (Maine)

US National Weather Service Caribou ME

...August 2012: Warmest on Record for Caribou and 2nd Warmest for Houlton...

August 2012 will go down in the record books as the warmest August on record for Caribou (records began in 1939) and the 2nd warmest for Houlton (records began in 1948).

Caribou's average temperature was 68.0F, beating the old record of 67.2F from 1944. Houlton's average temperature was 67.7F, coming up just shy of the record of 67.9F from 1973.

Although temperatures were also several degrees warmer than average for Bangor and Downeast, they did not come close to record territory for the month as a whole.

What was interesting about August 2012 was that it wasn't super hot (Caribou only topped out at 89F and Houlton 88F), but it was consistently warm. For example, both Caribou and Houlton had the most 75F+ days on record in August with 25 and 27 days respectively, even though no one day hit 90F.

For the "meteorological summer" as a whole (Jun 1-Aug 31), it was the 3rd warmest on record for Caribou, 9th warmest for Houlton, but only 20th warmest for Bangor. And, like August, we didn't have many really hot days, but it was consistently warm. For example, Caribou tied its most 75F+ days for Jun 1-Aug 31 with 60.

Early September Rainstorm, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaac Update Four

Early September Rainstorm, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaac Update Three

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
805 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

MEC021-025-051600-
/O.NEW.KCAR.FA.Y.0016.120905T1205Z-120905T1600Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PISCATAQUIS ME-SOMERSET ME-
805 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU MAINE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MAINE...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RIPOGENUS...MOUNT KATAHDIN...
  GREENVILLE...BAXTER ST PARK...
  NORTH CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MAINE...

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 756 AM EDT DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 1.00 TO
3.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA WITH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR THE BACK END OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LESSER
AMOUNTS STILL IN FRONT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AREA OVER THE
PISCATAQUIS EASTERN PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. EXPECT AN AN
ADDITIONAL 0.50 INCHES OVER NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY...
RESULTING IN TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE
RAINFALL WINDS DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL BROOKS AND STREAMS ESPECIALLY OVER STEEP TERRAIN...AND PONDING
OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF BROOKS AND
STREAMS. A FEW SEGMENTS OF GRAVEL ROADS COULD BE WASHED OUT.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4607 7032 4613 7025 4619 7031 4635 7021
      4642 7006 4649 7004 4647 6960 4621 6892
      4584 6885 4551 6909 4531 6943 4532 6971
      4554 6978 4565 6970 4574 6981 4576 6972
      4588 6973 4586 6965 4597 6968 4596 7033

$$

NOUHAN

Guysborough County
4:26 AM ADT Wednesday 05 September 2012
Rainfall warning for
Guysborough County issued

Up to 70 millimetres of rain is expected for Northeastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system over New England will track eastward to lie over Cape Breton by Thursday evening. Rain ahead of this system has started over Western Nova Scotia and will spread eastward this morning. The rain is expected to be heavy at times with amounts reaching 60 to 70 millimeters with some localized areas up to 100 millimeters by Thursday morning.

Also Les Suetes winds gusting up to 100 km/h are expected to develop this evening and continue overnight in Cape Breton from Margaree Harbour to bay St. Lawrence.
Fredericton and Southern York County
4:24 AM ADT Wednesday 05 September 2012
Rainfall warning for
Fredericton and Southern York County issued

Up to 75 millimetres of rain is expected over Southern New Brunswick.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system over New England will track across the Maritimes to lie over Cape Breton by Thursday evening. Rain at times heavy will continue over Southern New Brunswick today and taper to showers this evening. Generally, rainfall totals of up to 75 millimetres are expected, but there is potential for local amounts of up to 100 millimetres.