Friday, February 05, 2021

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern & Eastern Maine - 02/04/2021

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
218 PM EST THU FEB 4 2021

..SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN... CENTRAL...AND 
DOWNEAST MAINE...

THIS IS THE THIRD WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2021,
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS 
OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE TWO- 
WEEK PERIOD OF FEBRUARY 4TH TO FEBRUARY 18TH, 2021.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. 

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS 
DOWNEAST MAINE AND NEAR NORMAL FOR NORTHERN MAINE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. 

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE... 
TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY AVERAGED BETWEEN 7 TO 9 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION ONLY RANGED FROM 25 TO 60 PERCENT OF 
NORMAL, RANGING FROM 1.8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AT FRENCHVILLE TO 
2.21 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR HOULTON. THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF 
JANUARY BROUGHT JUST ONE PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE REGION ON THE 
28TH INTO THE 29TH, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES 
ACROSS THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ARRIVED ON FEBRUARY
2ND, WHICH BROUGHT 6 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE 
REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BEING ACROSS THE ST. 
JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH REGION. 

A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO RETURN AND PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE
OF FEBRUARY. 

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS CALLING
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS INCREASED TO 12 TO 25 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND
THE MAINE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 4 TO 10
FROM THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY, INCLUDING BANGOR, DOWN TO THE COAST. 
AS OF 7 AM THIS MORNING, CARIBOU WAS CARRYING A SNOW DEPTH OF 13 
INCHES AND FORT KENT CAME IN WITH 23 INCHES. SNOW DEPTHS CONTINUE 
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. 

THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE AMOUNT OF WATER CONTAINED IN 
THE SNOWPACK, RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND 
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. ALLAGASH INCREASED ITS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 
OF 3.1 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE MAINE CENTRAL 
HIGHLANDS INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING THE COAST, RANGED 
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME 
OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. 

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX, WHICH MEASURES SOIL 
MOISTURE IN THE LONGER TERM, CONTINUED TO SHOW NEAR TO ABOVE 
NORMAL CONDITIONS.

A LOOK AT THE GROUNDWATER LEVELS, COURTESY OF THE USGS, SHOWED ABOVE 
NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FORT KENT CONTINUES TO REPORT 
GROUNDWATER LEVELS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 
SNOWPACK EXISTING IS AVAILABLE FOR RECHARGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE REGION. 

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR. 

A FEW COLD NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW DURING THE LAST
10 DAYS HAS ALLOWED RIVER ICE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE 
REGION. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF OPEN WATER, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND THE ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS. THE 
PENOBCOT RIVER WAS ICED IN AROUND THE BANGOR REGION AND UP INTO 
THE MILLINOCKET AREA, BUT OPEN STRETCHES WERE NOTED SOUTH OF 
MILLINOCKET TO EDDINGTON. THE EAST BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER 
WAS ICE COVERED. ICE THICKNESS RANGED FROM 2-10 INCHES ALONG THE
PENOBSCOT RIVER WITH THE THICKEST ICE AT GRINDSTONE. A GOOD DEAL 
OF THE KENDUSKEAG STREAM NEAR THE BANGOR REGION WAS ICE COVERED 
WITH 8 INCHES OF ICE MEASURED BY THE USGS. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER 
BASIN, INCLUDING THE KINGSBURY STREAM HAD A GOOD DEAL OF ICE 
COVERAGE. THE USGS MEASURED ICE THICKNESS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG
SOME SECTIONS OF THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER, WITH MOST OF THIS BEING 
HARD ICE. THE USGS ALSO MEASURED 10 INCHES OF HARD ICE ON THE 
KINGSBURY STEAM AT ABBOT VILLAGE. 

THE AROOSTOOK RIVER WAS MOSTLY ICE COVERED, WITH THE EXCEPTION 
NEAR ASHLAND, WHERE SOME OPEN WATER RESIDED. THE SAME CAN BE SAID 
FOR THE ST. JOHN RIVER AND THE ALLAGASH RIVERS WITH SOME OPEN 
SPOTS NOTED. ICE THICKNESS WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 7 TO 10 INCHES 
ALONG THESE BASINS. A LARGE STRETCH OF THE FISH RIVER REMAINS OPEN
WITH ICE ON THE SIDES.

A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE BUNCHED UP JAM RESIDES ON THE
AROOSTOOK RIVER FROM JUST EAST OF CARIBOU TO THE FORT FAIRFIELD 
BRIDGE. THIS JAM IS APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES IN LENGTH. THE JAM 
APPEARS TO BE BROKEN UP IN SPOTS ALONG THIS STRETCH. A SMALL
BUNCHED UP JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE TOWN OF CROUSEVILLE ON 
THE AROOSTOOK RIVER. ANOTHER SMALL, BUNCHED UP JAM REMAINS IN 
PLACE ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER, JUST SOUTH OF LILLE TO THE TOWN OF 
KEEGAN. ICE THICKNESS WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6 TO 8 INCHES.

ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

...IN CONCLUSION...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS REMAINS 
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AND NEAR NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 
MAINE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ALONG WITH 
MILD TEMPERATURES CAN LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 
WITH SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. ICE BREAKING UP AND JAMMING CAN ELEVATE 
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. 

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, 
FEBRUARY 18TH.

$$

FARRAR/HEWITT