Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern & Eastern Maine - 02/04/2021

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

218 PM EST THU FEB 4 2021

..SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN... CENTRAL...AND 

DOWNEAST MAINE...

THIS IS THE THIRD WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2021,

ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS 

OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE TWO- 

WEEK PERIOD OF FEBRUARY 4TH TO FEBRUARY 18TH, 2021.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE

ENTIRE REGION. 

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS 

DOWNEAST MAINE AND NEAR NORMAL FOR NORTHERN MAINE FOR THIS TIME OF

YEAR. 

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE... 

TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY AVERAGED BETWEEN 7 TO 9 DEGREE ABOVE

NORMAL. PRECIPITATION ONLY RANGED FROM 25 TO 60 PERCENT OF 

NORMAL, RANGING FROM 1.8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AT FRENCHVILLE TO 

2.21 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR HOULTON. THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF 

JANUARY BROUGHT JUST ONE PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE REGION ON THE 

28TH INTO THE 29TH, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES 

ACROSS THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ARRIVED ON FEBRUARY

2ND, WHICH BROUGHT 6 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE 

REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BEING ACROSS THE ST. 

JOHN VALLEY AND ALLAGASH REGION. 

A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH

THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER AND

MUCH COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO RETURN AND PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE

OF FEBRUARY. 

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS CALLING

FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS INCREASED TO 12 TO 25 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND

THE MAINE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 4 TO 10

FROM THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY, INCLUDING BANGOR, DOWN TO THE COAST. 

AS OF 7 AM THIS MORNING, CARIBOU WAS CARRYING A SNOW DEPTH OF 13 

INCHES AND FORT KENT CAME IN WITH 23 INCHES. SNOW DEPTHS CONTINUE 

TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. 

THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE AMOUNT OF WATER CONTAINED IN 

THE SNOWPACK, RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND 

NORTHWESTERN AREAS. ALLAGASH INCREASED ITS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 

OF 3.1 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE MAINE CENTRAL 

HIGHLANDS INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING THE COAST, RANGED 

FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME 

OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. 

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX, WHICH MEASURES SOIL 

MOISTURE IN THE LONGER TERM, CONTINUED TO SHOW NEAR TO ABOVE 

NORMAL CONDITIONS.

A LOOK AT THE GROUNDWATER LEVELS, COURTESY OF THE USGS, SHOWED ABOVE 

NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FORT KENT CONTINUES TO REPORT 

GROUNDWATER LEVELS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 

SNOWPACK EXISTING IS AVAILABLE FOR RECHARGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE

INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE REGION. 

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS TIME OF 

YEAR. 

A FEW COLD NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW DURING THE LAST

10 DAYS HAS ALLOWED RIVER ICE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE 

REGION. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF OPEN WATER, ESPECIALLY ALONG

THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND THE ST. CROIX RIVER BASINS. THE 

PENOBCOT RIVER WAS ICED IN AROUND THE BANGOR REGION AND UP INTO 

THE MILLINOCKET AREA, BUT OPEN STRETCHES WERE NOTED SOUTH OF 

MILLINOCKET TO EDDINGTON. THE EAST BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER 

WAS ICE COVERED. ICE THICKNESS RANGED FROM 2-10 INCHES ALONG THE

PENOBSCOT RIVER WITH THE THICKEST ICE AT GRINDSTONE. A GOOD DEAL 

OF THE KENDUSKEAG STREAM NEAR THE BANGOR REGION WAS ICE COVERED 

WITH 8 INCHES OF ICE MEASURED BY THE USGS. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER 

BASIN, INCLUDING THE KINGSBURY STREAM HAD A GOOD DEAL OF ICE 

COVERAGE. THE USGS MEASURED ICE THICKNESS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG

SOME SECTIONS OF THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER, WITH MOST OF THIS BEING 

HARD ICE. THE USGS ALSO MEASURED 10 INCHES OF HARD ICE ON THE 

KINGSBURY STEAM AT ABBOT VILLAGE. 

THE AROOSTOOK RIVER WAS MOSTLY ICE COVERED, WITH THE EXCEPTION 

NEAR ASHLAND, WHERE SOME OPEN WATER RESIDED. THE SAME CAN BE SAID 

FOR THE ST. JOHN RIVER AND THE ALLAGASH RIVERS WITH SOME OPEN 

SPOTS NOTED. ICE THICKNESS WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 7 TO 10 INCHES 

ALONG THESE BASINS. A LARGE STRETCH OF THE FISH RIVER REMAINS OPEN

WITH ICE ON THE SIDES.

A FEW ICE JAMS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE BUNCHED UP JAM RESIDES ON THE

AROOSTOOK RIVER FROM JUST EAST OF CARIBOU TO THE FORT FAIRFIELD 

BRIDGE. THIS JAM IS APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES IN LENGTH. THE JAM 

APPEARS TO BE BROKEN UP IN SPOTS ALONG THIS STRETCH. A SMALL

BUNCHED UP JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE TOWN OF CROUSEVILLE ON 

THE AROOSTOOK RIVER. ANOTHER SMALL, BUNCHED UP JAM REMAINS IN 

PLACE ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER, JUST SOUTH OF LILLE TO THE TOWN OF 

KEEGAN. ICE THICKNESS WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6 TO 8 INCHES.

ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF

YEAR.

...IN CONCLUSION...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS

THE ENTIRE REGION. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS REMAINS 

BELOW NORMAL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AND NEAR NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 

MAINE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ALONG WITH 

MILD TEMPERATURES CAN LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 

WITH SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. ICE BREAKING UP AND JAMMING CAN ELEVATE 

THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. 

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, 

FEBRUARY 18TH.

$$

FARRAR/HEWITT