Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Here Comes That Fella Jose Update One

2:44 PM ADT Tuesday 19 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:
Queens County
Shelburne County
Yarmouth County
For Hurricane Jose.

The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Hurricane Jose forecast to drift slowly southeast of Cape Cod for the next few days. Minimal land impacts expected at this time.

1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 a.m. ADT.

Location: 36.7 North 71.7 West.

About 380 kilometres east-northeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North at 9 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 973 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Persistent moisture and cloud cover over Nova Scotia as well as rough surf along the Atlantic coast will be the norm this week as Jose crawls along to the southeast of Cape Cod. This is odd behaviour for a storm in this part of the Atlantic. High pressure to the east and absence of the jet stream to move it along are the key factors.

Hurricane Maria is a catastrophic category 5 hurricane that went directly over the Island of Dominica today. That storm will be located near the Bahamas by the weekend, at which time we will be contemplating whether we will require bulletins on it.

a. Wind.

So far it looks like just light to moderate southeasterly winds for Nova Scotia throughout most of the week.

b. Rainfall.

This flow pattern will keep skies mostly cloudy with some showers, drizzle and fog being the main theme especially along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. Some heavier showers are possible late Wednesday and Thursday as a trough forms east of the main low. We will continue to monitor.

c. Surge/Waves.

Increasingly rough surf conditions can be expected along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia today onward. One to 2 metre swells are expected today, then building to 3 to 4 metres Wednesday into Thursday, mainly along the southwestern shore. The swell will gradually diminish late this week. While there is a new moon tonight, and tides will be large, no storm surge is expected.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force east to southeast winds are expected for the southwestern portion of the Maritimes marine district Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. There is a small possibility that storm-force winds could reach the far southern part of George's Bank. Gale warnings have been issued for Georges Bank and part of West Scotian Slope. We will continue to monitor.

Forecaster: Fogarty/Mercer

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion


Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite imagery indicate that Jose's cloud pattern has improved
since the previous advisory. Curved band features have become more
evident in all quadrants and the upper-level outflow has also
expanded and become more anticyclonic. Jose actually looks more like
a tropical cyclone now. Satellite intensity estimates have increased
and were a consensus T3.5/55 kt at 1800Z. Since that time, the
convective pattern has continued to improve, including a burst of
convection with cloud tops colder than -60C having developed near
and over the well-defined low-level center. Given the much improved
satellite cloud pattern, the intensity will remain 65 kt. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Jose by 2300Z.

Jose has made the much anticipated turn toward the north-northeast
and is now moving 025/07 kt. There is no significant change to
the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest NHC model
guidance remains in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning
toward the northeast by Wednesday morning, followed by a turn toward
the east on Thursday as the cyclone moves around the north side of
deep-layer ridge. During the 72-120 hour period, a high-latitude
ridge is forecast to build to the north of Jose, forcing the
cyclone slowly southward and southwestward over the far North
Atlantic. The new official forecast track lies a little to the east
of the consensus models, closer to the ECMWF solution.

The center and much of the inner core of Jose will be moving over
21-22C SSTs by 36-48 h. However, a large portion of the hurricane's
circulation will still be located over much warmer water, which will
maintain a long, southerly fetch of unstable air into and to the
north of the center. Since the vertical wind shear is expected to be
20 kt or less, only gradual weakening is expected as per the
previous intensity forecasts, and the intensity models IVCN and

The 34-kt wind radii were increased slightly in the northwestern
quadrant based on 14-15Z ASCAT scatterometer wind data, offshore
buoy reports, and a 40-45 kt wind report from ship VRGH3.


1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New
England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3
inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches
are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This
rainfall could cause isolated flooding.


INIT  19/2100Z 37.2N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 38.2N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 39.2N  69.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 39.7N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 39.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 39.0N  67.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  23/1800Z 38.6N  68.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  24/1800Z 38.3N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

Forecaster Stewart


FXUS61 KCAR 192108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
508 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

High pressure will remain over the area tonight while Hurricane
Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will turn
eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into

High pressure will be ridged across northern Maine tonight,
with Hurricane Jose located south of Cape Cod. Skies will remain
cloudy across central and Downeast portions of the forecast
area tonight. An area of rain will move northwest toward the
Downeast coast tonight. However, the high to the north will
limit the northward movement. The best chances of rain tonight
will be along the Downeast coast, with lesser chances northward
across the remainder of the region. Only isolated showers are
possible across northern portions of the forecast area tonight.
Clouds have thinned across northern portions of the forecast
area this afternoon. However, with lingering low level moisture
expect clouds will re-develop tonight. Fog will move back
onshore across Downeast areas tonight, with fog re-developing
across the remainder of the region, which will linger early
Wednesday. High pressure will begin to build south across the
region Wednesday afternoon. After a mostly cloudy morning,
expect decreasing clouds across northern areas during the
afternoon. Rain could linger Downeast, particularly closer to
the coast, early Wednesday. The rain will then end through the
morning into the afternoon with skies remaining mostly cloudy.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to around
60 north, to around 60 to the lower 60s Downeast. High
temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 70s
across much of the forecast area, with around 70 to the lower
70s along the Downeast coast.

Jose is expected to move to the southeast of Nantucket Island
Wednesday evening. At the same time strong high pressure will
be located to the north of the state. Jose is then expected to
drift very slowly to the east and south Thursday and Friday
which will allow the strong high to dominate most of the region.
Expect clouds in coastal areas Wednesday night but clearing
should take place Thursday in all areas as high pressure builds
in. Some clouds are expected in the north and along the coast
later Friday as the high pressure system starts to weaken.

At this point, no significant weather systems are expected in
the long term part of the forecast. Surface high pressure and a
weak ridge aloft will keep it dry and sunny on Saturday. The
upper ridge looks to keep Jose (or its remnant low) well south
of the area before it either drifts back west or gets pushed
east, depending on which model solution you favor. Either way,
Jose looks to have little or no impact on Maine weather in the
long-term, aside from seas perhaps remaining a bit rough through
the weekend.

Between Saturday night and Monday morning, various models have
indications of weak troughs or fronts pushing across the area,
but none have much in the way of precipitation or a sizable
cold air push behind them, so POPs were kept fairly low. There
may be a bit more agreement on a possible front and a weakening
of the upper ridge later Monday into Tuesday, but may questions
remain, so POPs were limited to low - end chance at best.

NEAR TERM: Generally IFR/LIFR conditions are expected with low
clouds and fog Downeast tonight into early Wednesday, with
MVFR/IFR conditions Wednesday afternoon. VFR/MVFR conditions are
expected across northern areas early tonight. IFR/LIFR
conditions will then develop overnight and persist early
Wednesday. Conditions will then improve to VFR levels across
northern areas Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Wednesday night
through Sunday, with the exception of variable conditions with
any late night fog.

NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas is in
effect tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Visibilities will
be reduced in rain and fog tonight through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: For winds: Have used a 50/50 blend of the NAM and
GFS. Expect northeast winds to increase Thursday as gradient
tightens in the juxtaposition between Jose and strong high
pressure to the north. Winds will then decrease Friday as Jose
drifts to the south. For Waves: Southeasterly swell from Jose
will continue to build into Wednesday. As winds increase a
secondary northeasterly wind wave system will develop across the
Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday. This wave system will
combine with long period southeasterly swell. Will initialize
the waves with the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) and
will then lower wave heights 1 foot to adjust for expected high

Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 14
seconds/5-6 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are
expected to increase in height Tonight and Wednesday. So will
extend the high surf advisory. Concern is that long period waves
high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the
shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of
spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents
are also expected.

The astronomical tide will be at the highest levels of the
month as well over the next few days. Northeasterly winds are
expected to increase Late Wednesday and Thursday resulting in an
additional 1 foot of storm surge. The largest waves are
expected to arrive Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Therefore the
Wednesday Night at 11:50 PM and Thursday Afternoon at 12:13 AM
high tide cycles are of greatest concern for runup and splash-
over along coastal areas directly exposed to large ocean waves.

Since the expected storm surge is going to be only around 1
foot, the total water levels inland from the coast are NOT
expected to be high enough for flooding resulting from storm
surge alone.

ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050>052.


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Kredensor
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone