Monday, September 05, 2016

Extratropical Storm Hermine Update Two

WTNT44 KNHC 060253

1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016

Hermine is a large, occluded low that is beginning - finally - to
spin down some.  While there is some convection associated with the
cyclone, it is not deep and is displaced well southwest of the
center.  Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the peak winds have dropped to about 55 kt.  Given the lack of
deep convection and little baroclinic forcing, continued weakening
and shrinking of the cyclone's wind field is anticipated.  It is
forecast that Hermine will dissipate in about three days.  The NHC
intensity prediction is similar to the previous advisory and is
based upon the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models.

Hermine is moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt, primarily
due to the steering induced by an upper- to mid-level cutoff low to
its south. As Hermine merges with this low in the next day, the
cyclone's motion will slow to a crawl.  In about two days, an
upstream shortwave trough in the westerlies will cause Hermine to
begin a northeastward motion until dissipation.  The NHC track
forecast is shifted slightly southwestward, between that from the
previous advisory and the global model consensus.

The Air Force reconnaissance data as well as the Buzzards Bay and
Montauk Point buoys have been crucial for determining the
tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii, which have been
contracted slightly.  The wind radii forecast is based upon the
RVCN wind radii consensus.


INIT  06/0300Z 39.6N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  06/1200Z 39.7N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  07/0000Z 39.7N  71.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  07/1200Z 39.8N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  08/0000Z 40.4N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Landsea/Brown

FXUS61 KCAR 060112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
912 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain across
our region through the middle of the week. The remnants of
tropical storm Hermine will remain south of New England through
mid-week where it will weaken.


-- Changed Discussion --

915 pm update... Lowered ovrngt mins by a degree or two as they are dropping quickly acrs the North Woods under clr skies and nr calm winds. Locales may be hard-pressed to see 40s by morning but cldr vly locations certainly not out of the question that this wl again occur. As expected showers are dying as they mv into ridge axis tonight but potential exists that may see airmass saturate as we head into the ovrngt hrs, hwvr not expecting anything more than a few hundredths of an inch at this time. Prev discussion blo... Tonight will be mostly clear across the north and clear to partly cloudy Downeast as a strong upper ridge remains across the area. Some bands of mid and high cloudiness spiraling north from the remains of tropical storm Hermine will drift north across the area tonight and Tuesday. There`s a slight chance for some showers Downeast on Tuesday. Otherwise, Tuesday will be warm and dry with ridging remaining across the area. Elevated seas from storm Hermine will continue to affect the coast tonight into early Tuesday. Otherwise, the storm will remain well south of our region as it continues to weaken.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tropical Cyclone Hermine is

expected to stay south of New England Tuesday Night through Wednesday then begin moving to the northeast. This system may produce some showers along coastal areas and interior Down East Tuesday Night into early Wednesday but not precipitation is expected due to the distance from the storm. Hermine will continue to produce long period waves along the coast through this Thursday. An area of low pressure is expected to pass to the northwest of the state Thursday and this system may produce showers in the north late Thursday.....