Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Tropical Storm Joaquin a Potential Long Term Threat to the Region Update One





000
WTNT41 KNHC 300254
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to become better
organized this evening.  The low-level center is located within the
northwestern portion of the deep convection and the outflow has
continued to expand over the northern semicircle, which suggests
that the shear continues to decrease.  The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 or 55 kt on the
Dvorak scale.  Based on the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and
the continued increase in organization this evening, the initial
wind speed has been raised to 60 kt.  Joaquin is forecast to be over
warm water and in an increasingly favorable upper-level wind pattern
during the next day or so.  These conditions favor intensification
and the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane within
the next 12 hours.  The upper-level winds are shown by the global
models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an
upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional
strengthening is anticipated.  The new NHC forecast is a bit
higher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN
intensity consensus aid.  It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,
and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next
few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.

Joaquin is moving west-southwestward at about 5 kt.  This general
motion is forecast to continue during the next 24-36 hours while the
cyclone remains to the southwest of a weak mid-level ridge. During
this time, the center of Joaquin is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Central Bahamas.  After 48 hours, a deepening mid-
to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States is
expected to cause a turn toward the north or north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed.  There remains large spread in the
guidance at days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF showing a northeastward
motion toward Bermuda.  Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS shifted significantly
westward and is close to the UKMET and HWRF, which are along the
western edge of the guidance envelope.  The NHC track has been
shifted westward, but it is not as far west as the multi-model
consensus. The new track is fairly close to the ECMWF-Ensemble Mean.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Central Bahamas.  Additional watches or warnings may be required
early Wednesday.

At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential
impacts of Joaquin in the United States.  The environmental steering
currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent
manner by the forecast models.  A wide range of outcomes are
possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,
Joaquin will have on the United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 25.8N  71.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 25.5N  72.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 25.2N  73.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  01/1200Z 24.8N  74.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  02/0000Z 24.9N  74.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  03/0000Z 26.7N  74.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  04/0000Z 31.3N  72.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 35.5N  72.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
000
FXUS61 KCAR 300319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1119 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO
BRING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DOMINATE
THE STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
11:20 PM UPDATE: SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN
MAINE AND TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S SO LOWERED TEMPS EARLY
TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASED RAIN COVERAGE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HEAVY RAIN SHIELD IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS VERMONT ON RADAR
AS SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE STATE OF MAINE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE CAME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
ROBUST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TRENDED MAXIMUM QPF AXIS FURTHER INLAND COMPARED TO
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE...AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE NOW. NAM12 IS THE MOST AGREESIVE
WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH A GENERAL
3-5" AND SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE. EVEN
THOUGH THINGS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...FELT THE AMOUNTS IN THEMSELVE WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH FOR
SMALL STREAM AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TOMORROWS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
COAST AND DOWNEAST TOMORROW MORNING. GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE HAS FINALLY INCREASED ON THE OVERALL
SOLUTION. BIGGEST IMPACT AND THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH POSSIBLE BANDING STUCTURE DEVELOPMENT THAT
WILL LEAD TO LOCALZIED FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FRIDAY CAUSING RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE USED A
50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TO GENERATE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POP.. QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM REMAINS A CHALLENGING FORECAST, WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY LINGERING AROUND THE FUTURE OF TS JOAQUIN. THE
FORECAST FOR JOAQUIN IS NO MORE CERTAIN TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH EVERY MODEL SEEMINGLY HAVING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
BEYOND 48-72 HRS. THE DISCREPANCIES SEEM TO BE BASED ON THEIR
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC, TYPICAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS SORT OF A PATTERN. CURRENT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM HOOKING INTO
THE CAROLINAS OR MID- ATLANTIC TO GOING OFF TO NOVA SCOTIA OR EVEN
EAST OF THERE.

WHAT DOES SEEM SOMEWHAT CERTAIN IS THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, AND MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT CREEPING BACK NORTH A BIT SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW LKLY
POPS OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO NUDGE BACK NORTH
ONSHORE. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD, HOWEVER, POPS WERE GENERALLY
KEPT AT CHC LEVELS, SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-TERM PATTERN
EVOLUTION AND THE FATE OF TS JOAQUIN SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY
DEFINITIVE FORECAST FOR DRIER OR WETTER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

Autumn Rainstorm Update Two
















Autumn Rainstorm Update One













FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1228 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE STATE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL
MAINE. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH THIS FRONT. IN ADDITION A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6
INCHES OVER THIS PERIOD.

MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-300430-
/O.NEW.KCAR.FA.A.0002.150930T1200Z-151001T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAXTER ST PARK...CHAMBERLAIN LAKE...
CHURCHILL DAM...MOUNT KATAHDIN...MILLINOCKET...EAST MILLINOCKET...
PATTEN...MEDWAY...HOULTON...HODGDON...SHERMAN...SMYRNA MILLS...
GREENVILLE...MONSON...BLANCHARD...LINCOLN...HOWLAND...
SPRINGFIELD...BANGOR...BREWER...ORONO...OLD TOWN...AMHERST...
AURORA...DEDHAM...EASTBROOK...GREAT POND...ORLAND...DEBLOIS...
GRAND LAKE STREAM...MEDDYBEMPS...PEMBROKE...PERRY...PRINCETON...
ELLSWORTH...BAR HARBOR...BLUE HILL...EASTPORT...MACHIAS...
CHERRYFIELD...DOVER-FOXCROFT...MILO...GUILFORD...DANFORTH...
VANCEBORO...TOPSFIELD
1228 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE...EAST
  CENTRAL MAINE...EASTERN MAINE...INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE...
  NORTH CENTRAL MAINE AND NORTHERN MAINE...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING IN COASTAL ...DOWNEAST MAINE...COASTAL HANCOCK AND
  COASTAL WASHINGTON. IN EAST CENTRAL MAINE...CENTRAL PENOBSCOT
  AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT. IN EASTERN MAINE...NORTHERN
  WASHINGTON. IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
  INTERIOR HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT. IN NORTH CENTRAL
  MAINE...CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS...NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND
  SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS. IN NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK.

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
  THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE
  EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING
  UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

* FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
  THE GREATEST THREAT. IN ADDITION SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
  HAVE A FAST RESPONSE TIME COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN
  HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
  THEIR BANKS DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&
$$
:56 PM ADT Tuesday 29 September 2015
Rainfall warning in effect for:
  • Bathurst and Chaleur Region
A long episode of heavy rain is expected.

A slow moving cold front will approach the region this evening and spread rain, at times heavy, across the province beginning tonight, and persisting through Wednesday, with the heaviest rainfall expected to occur Wednesday night. Total rainfall amounts of 100 to 150 millimeters are forecast for much of the province by Thursday morning. Heavy, prolonged rainfall will create a risk of localized and flash flooding for many parts of the province over the next 24 to 36 hours. Rain is expected to ease Thursday morning, as the frontal system slides southeastward and out of the province.
Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Don't approach washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts. Be prepared for winter conditions at higher elevations.
3:51 PM ADT Tuesday 29 September 2015
Rainfall warning in effect for:
  • Prince County P.E.I.
Rain, at times heavy, is expected.


A cold front will move over New Brunswick tonight and remain stationary for the next 24 to 36 hours. Rain will begin over
western regions Wednesday morning and spread eastward. The rain will intensify Wednesday evening giving heavy downpours
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 50 to 90 millimetres can be expected over Prince County. The rain will ease in intensity on Thursday and move eastward as the cold front moves towards Newfoundland.

While there is some uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and location of the highest rainfall, several models indicate total
amounts in excess of 100 millimetres are possible for parts of the province. Therefore rainfall warnings may be extended.

There is a risk of localized flooding and possibly flash flooding in the heavy downpours with this rainfall event. Use caution if you are travelling during these intense and heavy downpours.
Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall Warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #PEStorm.

3:45 PM ADT Tuesday 29 September 2015
Rainfall warning in effect for:
  • Yarmouth County
Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

A cold front will move over New Brunswick tonight and remain stationary for the next 24 to 36 hours. Rain will begin over northern Nova Scotia Wednesday afternoon and spread southward. The rain will intensify Wednesday evening giving heavy downpours Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 50 to 90 millimetres can be expected over the Valley stretching north to the Minas basin. The rain will ease in intensity on Thursday and move eastward as the cold front moves towards Newfoundland.

While there is some uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and location of the highest rainfall, several models indicate total amounts in excess of 100 millimetres are possible for parts of the province. Therefore rainfall warnings may be extended.

Autumn Rainstorm












COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
905 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015


MEZ023-024-NHZ014-292115-
/O.NEW.KGYX.CF.A.0004.150930T1500Z-151001T2000Z/
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
905 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATION...NEW HAMPSHIRE SEACOAST AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE.

* COASTAL FLOODING...POTENTIAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
  DUE TO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING
  ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS.

* TIMING...AT AND NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT
  114 PM WEDNESDAY...147 AM AND 206 PM THURSDAY. TIMES BASED ON
  PORTLAND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING...BEACH EROSION AND
  SPLASHOVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$
MARINE
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
816 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
OUR REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY...THEN
TRANSITION TO A STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER TO SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAY PUSH SMALLER RIVERS TO BANKFULL
BY WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
FLOODING AS WELL.

MEZ012>014-018>028-NHZ003>015-292030-
/O.CON.KGYX.FA.A.0003.150930T0600Z-151001T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...
FARMINGTON...WILTON...MADISON...SKOWHEGAN...PITTSFIELD...
SANFORD...BERWICK...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...
LEWISTON...AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...
WINTERPORT...UNITY...BIDDEFORD...SACO...OLD ORCHARD BEACH...
KITTERY...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...BATH...
TOPSHAM...BOOTHBAY HARBOR...WISCASSET...WALDOBORO...CAMDEN...
ROCKLAND...THOMASTON...BELFAST...LINCOLNVILLE...LITTLETON...
NORTH CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...
OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD...
HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...DOVER...JAFFREY...
KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...SALEM...DERRY...EXETER...
PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
816 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN WESTERN MAINE...ANDROSCOGGIN...COASTAL
  CUMBERLAND...COASTAL WALDO...COASTAL YORK...INTERIOR
  CUMBERLAND...INTERIOR WALDO...INTERIOR YORK...KENNEBEC...
  KNOX...LINCOLN...SAGADAHOC...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN
  OXFORD AND SOUTHERN SOMERSET. IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...BELKNAP...
  CHESHIRE NH...COASTAL ROCKINGHAM...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH...
  INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM...MERRIMACK...NORTHERN CARROLL...NORTHERN
  GRAFTON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...SOUTHERN GRAFTON...STRAFFORD...
  SULLIVAN AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES MAY PUSH
  SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS TO BANKFULL BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
  SOME URBAN AND LOCALIZED DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&
$$

11:06 AM ADT Tuesday 29 September 2015
Rainfall warning in effect for:
  • Fredericton and Southern York County
Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

A slow moving cold front will approach the region later today and spread rain, at times heavy, across the province tonight, persisting well into Wednesday night in some areas. Currently, total rainfall amounts of 40 to 50 millimeters are forecast through Wednesday; however, due to the slow moving nature of this system, it is likely that parts of the province could receive very high rainfall amounts by Thursday morning. While there is some uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and location of the highest rainfall, several long range models indicate total amounts in excess of 100 millimetres are possible for parts of the province.
Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall Warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #NBStorm.

10:53 AM ADT Tuesday 29 September 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Queens County P.E.I.
There is potential for a significant rainfall event Wednesday and Thursday.
A slow moving cold front will cross the province from the northwest on Wednesday and stall over Nova Scotia on Thursday. This system will likely spread rain at times heavy across the province on Wednesday and persist well into Thursday. Due to the expected slow-moving nature of this front combined with an increased likelihood tropical moisture associated with a system off the Eastern Seaboard will feed into it, it is looking increasingly likely Prince Edward Island could see very high rainfall amounts by the time this system departs later Thursday night or Friday. While there still remains some uncertainty with respect to the timing and exact location of heaviest rainfall, several long range models indicate total amounts in excess of 100 millimetres are possible for parts of the province.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.

10:52 AM ADT Tuesday 29 September 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Potential for a significant rainfall event beginning later on Wednesday.
A slow moving cold front will approach the province from the northwest on Wednesday and will likely spread rain at times heavy across the province later on Wednesday and persist well into Thursday. Due to the expected slow-moving nature of this front combined with an increased likelihood tropical moisture associated with a system off the Eastern Seaboard will feed into it, it is looking increasingly likely Nova Scotia could see very high rainfall amounts by the time this system departs later Thursday night or Friday. While there still remains some uncertainty with respect to the timing and exact location of heaviest rainfall, several long range models indicate total amounts in excess of 100 millimetres are possible for parts of the province.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.