Saturday, December 25, 2010

Late December Weather Bomb Update 5








Late December Weather Bomb Update 4










URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
337 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032-260400-
/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.A.0007.101227T0300Z-101228T0000Z/
NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLINOCKET...EAST MILLINOCKET...
PATTEN...MEDWAY...HOULTON...HODGDON...SHERMAN...SMYRNA MILLS...
GREENVILLE...MONSON...BLANCHARD...LINCOLN...HOWLAND...
SPRINGFIELD...DOVER-FOXCROFT...MILO...GUILFORD...DANFORTH...
VANCEBORO...TOPSFIELD
337 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...GREATER THAN 7 INCHES POSSIBLE

* TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 20S

* WINDS...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
  MPH

* IMPACTS...HIGH IMPACT. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
  VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL BLOWING AND
  DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&& 
 
000
FXUS61 KCAR 252154
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
454 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY...THEN REACH NORTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LEAN MORE WET IN THE NEAR TERM. WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE CWA ATTM. THIS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW EVEN WITH A SUBSTANTIAL MOIST LAYER ALOFT TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ST. LAWRENCE STREAMERS UNDER NNW FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM S TO N ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL...HOWEVER CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUD. THIS SHOULD LOWER AMPLITUDE OF DIURNAL TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE SIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TEMPS LAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER REGIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE THICKEST. THE SECOND ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF SOME LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE E. CURRENT VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SC MOVING THROUGH E NB...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MOVES OVER THE E PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THESE PORTIONS OF THE STATE THRU TOMORROW TO SUGGEST FLURRY ACTIVITY AS WEAK INSTABILITY BELOW MOIST LAYER WILL YIELD ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR DRY FLURRIES TO FALL ACROSS THIS REGION...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE N. MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVING UP THE COAST WILL TREND SKIES TOWARDS CLOUDY ACROSS CWA BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK WAA BEGINS AT THIS TIME AS WELL. GIVEN THESE COUNTER POINTS...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM FALL IN THE SHORT TERM...SO KEPT POPS LOW FOR AFOREMENTIONED FLURRIES. USED A SREF AND GFS BLEND FOR POPS...BUT STAYED CLOSE TO THE REGIONAL GEM FOR SKIES...WHICH HAS HANDLED CLOUD REFORMATION OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY WELL OF LATE. INITIALIZED TEMP AND DWPT GRIDS WITH BLEND OF MET...MAV...AND LAV AND ADJUSTED FROM THERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW THEN TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION ZONE SUPPORT IS ALSO FOCUSED ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS AT THE SAME TIME. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT STRONG LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. BASED ON THESE WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW...A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOWS TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING STORM TOTAL SNOW. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH TOTALS TAPERING TO 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY AFFECTED BY ANY PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WHICH COULD DEVELOP. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY REGARDLESS OF THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE LOW WILL REACH NORTHEAST NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST LATER TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE STRONG HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY. HAVE USE THE GMOS TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS. WILL ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: SKIES WILL TEND TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. KBHB AND KBGR WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AS CLOUDS WILL BE MID TO HIGH. KHUL AND NORTH SITES WILL STAY VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU EVE BUT DROP TO MVFR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BRIEF LIFTING ACROSS N TO VFR SUN...BUT THEN A SLOW DECLINE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES WILL OCCUR LATE SUN EVE AS LOW PRES MOVES UP THE COAST. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES AND WIND ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY WITH LESSENING SNOW INTENSITIES. AREAS OF BLOW SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD PERSIST EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SUN. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUN EVE IN ADVANCE OF STRONG LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WATERS FROM THE SW. SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>004. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032. BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...DOODY MARINE...DOODY/NORCROSS

Late December Weather Bomb Update 3




 
 
Fredericton and Southern York County

 3:57 PM AST Saturday 25 December 2010

 Winter storm watch for
 
Fredericton and Southern York County issued


 Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse 
weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for 
updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts 
for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your 
local radio and television stations or Weatheradio. 
 
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

 3:52 PM AST Saturday 25 December 2010

 Winter storm watch for
 
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West issued


 Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse 
weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for 
updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts 
for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your 
local radio and television stations or Weatheradio. 
 
Queens County P.E.I.

 3:49 PM AST Saturday 25 December 2010

 Winter storm watch for
 
Queens County P.E.I. issued


 Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse 
weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for 
updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts 
for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your 
local radio and television stations or Weatheradio. 
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. ALL
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE WILL LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL...BUT
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS.

MEZ018>028-NHZ008>010-013-014-260415-
/O.CAN.KGYX.WS.A.0021.101226T2300Z-101227T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.BZ.A.0001.101226T2300Z-101227T2200Z/
INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-
INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-
KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANFORD...BERWICK...NORTH WINDHAM...
GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...
WATERVILLE...WINTERPORT...UNITY...BIDDEFORD...SACO...
OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...
WESTBROOK...BATH...TOPSHAM...BOOTHBAY HARBOR...WISCASSET...
WALDOBORO...CAMDEN...ROCKLAND...THOMASTON...BELFAST...
LINCOLNVILLE...CONCORD...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...
ROCHESTER...DOVER...SALEM...DERRY...EXETER...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON
301 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END
  MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 INCHES OR
  MORE ARE FORECAST. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN
  COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

* WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
  GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. WINDS WILL
  CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON MONDAY...WITH BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVY FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WHITE
  OUT CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE THOSE TRAPPED OUTSIDE TO BECOME
  DISORIENTED AND UNABLE TO FIND SHELTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&
 
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1107 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

MEZ016-017-029-030-260015-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0006.101227T0000Z-101228T0000Z/
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AMHERST...AURORA...DEDHAM...EASTBROOK...
GREAT POND...ORLAND...DEBLOIS...GRAND LAKE STREAM...MEDDYBEMPS...
PEMBROKE...PERRY...PRINCETON...ELLSWORTH...BAR HARBOR...
BLUE HILL...EASTPORT...MACHIAS...CHERRYFIELD
1107 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...GREATER THAN 7 INCHES POSSIBLE

* TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
  IMMEDIATE COAST

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE

* IMPACTS...HIGH IMPACT. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
  VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
  COULD CAUSE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

Late December Weather Bomb Update 2