FXUS61 KCAR 150204
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
904 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the north into early next week. Meanwhile, A
strong storm system moves from off the Mid Atlantic Coast Sunday
evening to Near Nova Scotia by Tuesday morning. This low then slowly
lifts north into the Canadian Maritime Provinces through the middle
of next week.....
......Prev Disc: The deep upper trough along the Atlantic coast will
make a subtle shift eastward tonight. This will push the warm
conveyor belt and the clouds streaming northward along it a bit
further east. High pressure over northern Quebec will strengthen
overnight as an upper ridge axis builds eastward from the Great
Lakes region. Ridging from the high will extend southward into
the forecast area and is expected to slowly erode the persistent
stratocumulus fields over the area. The gradual clearing and a
shallow wedge of colder air advecting southward will drop lows
into the single digits north and teens to lower 20s for Bangor
and Downeast. The 14/12Z GFS was treated as an outlier on the
cold side. Nonetheless, a steep and somewhat shallow inversion
will set up. As the high in Quebec strengthens, low pressure
well east of the Virginia coast will deepen. The pressure
gradient between these two features will tighten and northeast
winds will increase through tonight and into Sunday. This means
gusts to 25-30 mph for most of the area on Sunday...and gusts to
40 mph on the coast. This north to northeasterly flow will keep
the shallow wedge of cold air over the area Sunday with highs
ranging from the low 20s north to upper 20s Downeast.
The low off the Virginia coast will become vertically stacked on
Sunday and slowly drift northward. A warm occluded front will
approach the coast later in the day with precipitation in the
form of mostly sleet. There will be a decent amount of Atlantic
moisture streaming northward with PWs surging over three-
quarters of an inch along the Downeast coast by late Sunday. Critical
thicknesses do not suggest much snow. A strong easterly low
level jet in the H925 to H850 range will ensure warm advection
and development of a warm nose for melting. The warm nose looks
high enough to prevent too much in the way of freezing rain
into Sunday evening, but will be sufficient for sleet.
Precipitation will be mostly confined to the Downeast region for
Sunday afternoon. The remainder of the area will be dry...and
sunny in the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cutoff low tracks from off the mid Atlantic Coast Sunday evening
to the vicinity of Nova Scotia by Tuesday morning. Ahead of this
storm initially snow, quickly changing to a wintry mix of mainly
sleet, with some freezing rain, will overspread the area from
southeast to northwest from Sunday night into Monday morning, then
continue into Monday night, before tapering off from SW to NE. While
the entire region starts out with the entire vertical column of the
atmosphere below freezing, a deep warm layer moves in from SE to NW
Sunday night between about 800-700 hPa. At the surface though, cold
low level air will continue to advect in on low level N-NNE flow.
This set up continues through Monday, before colder air moves in
again aloft from N to S Monday night.
This should lead to a significant accumulation of sleet (1 inch or
more) across at least portions of Downeast Maine and possibly
southern Aroostook, with at least 1/2 an inch of sleet possible
farther to the west to around state route 11. In addition freezing
rain is also possible, with the potential for a tenth or two of an
inch of freezing rain across most of Downeast Maine, with Washington
County possibly seeing 1/4 to 1/2" of freezing rain. The heaviest
accumulations of sleet and freezing rain should occur from late
Sunday night through Monday.
There is also the potential for 3 to 5 inches of snow across the
North, falling in two waves. The first inch or so Sunday night
before changing over to the wintry mix and the second 2-4 inches
Monday night as colder air begins to work back in aloft.
In addition a 45-55kt low level jet could bring wind gusts up to 35
mph across Downeast Maine, this coupled with the sleet and freezing
rain could cause widespread power outages.
As a result have issued a winter storm watch from 19z Sunday-10z
Tuesday for Downeast Maine and Central Penobscot and Southern
Penobscot Counties and a winter weather advisory from 00z Monday-10z
Tuesday for Southern and Northern Penobscot, Southern Piscatiquis
and Northeastern Aroostook Counties. Note as confidence
increases in the outcomes outside of the current watch and
advisory area, there is some potential for advisories to be
expanded with future forecast issuances.
Northern stream ridging builds in on Tuesday as the cutoff low lifts
N into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. So while some linger snow
showers cannot be ruled out, more than likely the day should be
dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region should be under W to NW flow aloft Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, with dry low to mid levels, even with a few passing
shortwaves, it should be dry.
A northern stream ridge builds into the area Thursday, so it should
be dry, with minimal cloud cover. This ridge exits to the east
Thursday night, how fast its axis moves to the east will determine
how quickly high and mid clouds build in during the night ahead of
the next system.
A closed mid level low tracks from near the Great Lakes Friday
morning to the eastern Canadian Maritime Provinces by Saturday
morning (there is some differences in the models as to how far E and
N this feature gets and if it ends up opening up into a trough). For
now it appears that there could be a period of snow from Friday into
Friday night, and at this time, the heaviest snow appears more
likely for areas along and east/south of I-95. There is still quite
a bit of uncertainty with this system, so its to early to specify,
what impacts it might cause.
Northern stream ridging should then build in for Saturday, with it
being dry.
Temperatures should be above normal through the mid-long term.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
841 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023
MEZ006-011-016-017-029-030-032-151200-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0002.230115T1900Z-230117T1000Z/
Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central
Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Springfield, Ellsworth, Vanceboro,
Hodgdon, Aurora, Houlton, Howland, Great Pond, Castine, Perry,
Wesley, Topsfield, Sherman, Machias, Bucksport, Dedham, Bar
Harbor, Grand Lake Stream, Calais, Lincoln, Princeton, Danforth,
Cherryfield, Orland, Amherst, Eastbrook, Smyrna Mills, and
Eastport
841 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations between 2 and 4 inches, sleet accumulations around 1
inch and ice accumulations up to four tenths of an inch are
possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of Coastal DownEast, Far Eastern, Interior
DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine
* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Power outages and tree damage
are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening
commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow,
sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.
&&
$$
VJN
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
841 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023
MEZ002-005-015-031-151200-
/O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0004.230116T0000Z-230117T1000Z/
Northeast Aroostook-Northern Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Southern Piscataquis-
Including the cities of Guilford, Brewer, Presque Isle, East
Millinocket, Bangor, Millinocket, Orono, Ashland, Van Buren,
Milo, Patten, Medway, Mars Hill, Caribou, Dover-Foxcroft, and Old
Town
841 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 5
AM EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
between 3 and 5 inches, sleet accumulations around three quarters
of an inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...Northern Penobscot, Southern Piscataquis, Northeast
Aroostook, and Southern Penobscot Counties.
* WHEN...From 7 PM Sunday to 5 AM EST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday
morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree
branches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to
newengland511.org.
&&
$$
8:11 PM AST Saturday 14 January 2023
Freezing rain warning in effect for:
Saint John and County
Freezing drizzle will re-intensify to freezing rain Sunday evening.
Locations: southern New Brunswick.
Time span: Sunday evening through Monday morning.
Remarks: A persistent weather system stalled south of the Maritimes will push another round of freezing precipitation into New Brunswick later on Sunday and into Monday. Precipitation will start as ice pellets in the afternoon and gradually transition to freezing rain Sunday evening. Freezing rain and ice pellets will continue into Monday morning before warmer air finally changes the precipitation to rain.
There is a risk of significant ice accretion in some areas before this changeover.
This warning will likely be expanded further.
Poor weather conditions may contribute to transportation delays. Ice build-up may cause tree branches to break. Utility outages may occur. Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight. For information on emergency plans and kits go to http://www.getprepared.gc.ca.
Freezing rain warnings are issued when rain falling in sub-zero temperatures creates ice build-up and icy surfaces.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.
9:19 PM AST Saturday 14 January 2023
Freezing rain warning in effect for:
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Freezing rain is expected or occurring.
Locations: all of Nova Scotia except for southeastern Cape Breton Island.
Time span: tonight and Sunday.
Remarks: Many parts of the province will see a prolonged period of freezing drizzle tonight. Freezing rain is expected during the day on Sunday. Freezing rain will changeover to scattered showers by Monday morning.
Precipitation along the coast is expected to remain as rain on Sunday, with the main risk for freezing rain remaining inland.
Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become icy and slippery. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Ice build-up may cause tree branches to break.
Freezing rain warnings are issued when rain falling in sub-zero temperatures creates ice build-up and icy surfaces.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.
