Catastrophic Category Five Hurricane Dorian a Potential Long Range Threat to the Region

000
FXUS61 KCAR 011627
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1227 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will move east of the area through tonight. A
cold front crosses the area on Monday and high pressure builds
in briefly for Tuesday. The next significant system moves in on
Wednesday with high pressure following for Thursday.

&&

..........LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Another cold front on track for late Wednesday. This front looks
a bit stronger than Monday night`s with a bit more wind, a
stronger temperature gradient, and a chance of storms in
addition to the rain with the front. Good model agreement on the
cold front, with just 3 to 6 hours` timing difference between
models.

Cooler, dry, and breezy for Thursday with highs from around just
60 in the north to around 70 near the coast. High pressure
builds in Thursday night and could be another good night for
frost mainly in the north.

Dorian could become a player Friday or Saturday, mainly in terms
of higher seas. Operational GFS is a western outlier, bringing
Dorian northeast through Halifax. Most GEFS members and almost
all other models and model ensembles keep Dorian further
southeast than this. Most likely impact for our area at this
point would be some higher swells, with little in the way of
wind or rain. An approaching cold upper level toward the weekend
could spark some showers mainly in the north.....

717
WTNT35 KNHC 011746
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN OVER THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN
THE BAHAMAS...
...HEADING WITH ALL ITS FURY TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane
Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.1 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest.  On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great
Abaco today and the move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight
and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east
coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic
hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 911 mb (26.90 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos
Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and
tonight. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase as the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Update statements will begin at 300 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila