July Holiday Rainstorm Update One

July Holiday Rainstorm

000

FXUS61 KCAR 022218

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

618 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front will lift across the region tonight through

Monday. Low pressure will cross the region Monday night through

Tuesday then exit across the Maritimes Wednesday. High pressure

will cross the region Thursday then exit across the Maritimes

Friday.

&&

previous discussion

The low pressure system to the west will continue to push the

warm front across Downeast this evening, then shift northward

tonight. The main concern with this system is the heavy

rainfall after midnight. QPF models indicate an area of higher

moisture content moving along the warm front and across Downeast

and the Bangor Region. In addition, upper air model sounding

show a very moist column of air, with high Corfidi values, and

PWATS near 2 inches. Decided to issue a flood watch for the

Downeast and Bangor Region, especially for the convective storms

embedded within the stratiform rain. Expect 1-2 inches of

consistent rainfall with localized heavy rain after midnight

that could produce another half to 1 inch of rain.

By Monday, the low pressure system will move eastward across the

south, pushing the rest of the stratiform rain out of the area

by the afternoon. The upper level trof will continue to sag

across the western border, pulling in more moisture and

instability into the region. This will produce more showers

across the entire region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

At the surface, one area of low pressure will exit across the

Maritimes while a second low approaches the Gulf of Maine Monday

night. Aloft, an upper level trof will remain across the region.

Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers

Monday night. The secondary low crosses the region Tuesday,

while upper level troffing persists. Forecast soundings indicate

CAPES of up to around 1000 J/kg, lifted indices of around -2,

across areas inland from the Downeast coast Tuesday afternoon.

Expect a chance of showers Tuesday, along with a chance of

afternoon thunderstorms. Shower/thunderstorm chances will

persist into Tuesday evening, then diminish overnight with the

loss of diurnal heating. Upper level troffing will persist into

Wednesday. Expect partly sunny skies Wednesday, with still

enough instability to also support the chance of mostly afternoon

showers, possibly the slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Temperatures will be at near normal levels Tuesday, with

slightly above normal level temperatures Wednesday.......

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Gray ME

335 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

MEZ007>009-012-013-018-019-023-024-033-NHZ001>015-031945-

Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-

Southern Franklin-Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-

Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Interior Cumberland Highlands-

Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-

Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-

Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-

Coastal Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough-

335 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, southwest Maine, west

central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire,

northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Some heavy showers are possible this evening with patchy fog

developing overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Monday within heavier showers

and thunderstorms. Some localized flash flooding will be possible. A

couple of strong storms are also possible across southern NH on

Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Caribou ME

321 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

MEZ015>017-029-030-030330-

/O.NEW.KCAR.FA.A.0002.230703T0300Z-230703T1800Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal

Hancock-Coastal Washington-

Including the cities of Wesley, Bar Harbor, Princeton, Brewer,

Aurora, Perry, Eastbrook, Bangor, Great Pond, Bucksport, Old

Town, Ellsworth, Dedham, Orono, Cherryfield, Eastport, Orland,

Castine, Grand Lake Stream, Machias, Calais, and Amherst

321 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Coastal DownEast, Interior DownEast, and

  Penobscot Valley Maine, including the following areas, in Coastal

  DownEast Maine, Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington. In

  Interior DownEast Maine, Central Washington and Interior Hancock.

  In Penobscot Valley Maine, Southern Penobscot.

* WHEN...From 11 PM EDT this evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - A warm front across Downeast and Bangor Region will funnel

    moisture into this area tonight. Rainfall amounts of up to 1

    to 2 inches is expected with possible localized heavy

    rainfall of an additional 2 to 3 inches. Urban and small

    stream flooding is possible.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action

should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

LaFlash

3:29 p.m. ADT Sunday 2 July 2023

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total Rainfall: 30 to 45 mm. Locally higher amounts possible. 

Locations: south-central New Brunswick. 

Time span: this evening until Monday night. 

Remarks: A trough of low pressure will spread rain, heavy at times, across the province beginning this evening. The rain will continue Monday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

3:24 p.m. ADT Sunday 2 July 2023

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 50 to 70 mm. Possibly higher local amounts.

Locations: Minas Shore and Cumberland County North.

Time span: late this evening until Monday night.

Remarks:  A trough of low pressure will spread rain, heavy at times, across the Maritimes beginning this evening. The rain will continue Monday.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads.

If visibility is reduced while driving, turn on your lights and maintain a safe following distance. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

3:23 p.m. ADT Sunday 2 July 2023

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 50 to 70 mm. Possibly higher local amounts.

Locations: southern New Brunswick.

Time span: this evening until Monday night.

Remarks:  A trough of low pressure will spread rain, heavy at times, across the province beginning this evening. The rain will continue Monday.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads.

If visibility is reduced while driving, turn on your lights and maintain a safe following distance. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

3:20 p.m. ADT Sunday 2 July 2023

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 50 to 70 mm. Possibly higher local amounts.

Locations: P.E.I.

Time span: tonight until Monday night.

Remarks:  A trough of low pressure will spread rain, heavy at times, across the province beginning tonight. The rain will continue Monday.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads.

If visibility is reduced while driving, slow down, watch for tail lights ahead and be prepared to stop. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

3:08 p.m. ADT Sunday 2 July 2023

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 30 to 45 mm. Locally higher amounts possible. 

Locations: central and western Nova Scotia.

Time span: late this evening to Tuesday morning. 

Remarks: An approaching trough of low pressure will spread rain, heavy at times, across the province tonight. Rain will continue Monday. There is some uncertainty as to the timing and position of the highest rainfall amounts. Rainfall warnings may be required/expanded.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.