Tropical Storm Philippe Approaches Update One

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1157 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-071200-

/O.CON.KCAR.FA.A.0008.231007T2200Z-231008T1800Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-

Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Dover-Foxcroft, Hodgdon, Baxter St Park,

Churchill Dam, Guilford, Van Buren, Sherman, Millinocket,

Madawaska, Presque Isle, Medway, Houlton, Springfield, Smyrna

Mills, East Millinocket, Patten, Greenville, Monson, Vanceboro,

Baker Lake, Caribou, Allagash, Fort Kent, Frenchville, Mount

Katahdin, Blanchard, Ashland, Mars Hill, Clayton Lake, Billy-Jack

Depot, Lincoln, Howland, Danforth, Milo, Topsfield, and

Chamberlain Lake

1157 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be

  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Far Northern,

  North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine, including the following

  areas, in Central Highlands Maine, Central Piscataquis, Northern

  Penobscot and Southern Piscataquis. In Far Eastern Maine, Northern

  Washington and Southeast Aroostook. In Far Northern Maine,

  Northeast Aroostook and Northwest Aroostook. In North Woods Maine,

  Northern Piscataquis and Northern Somerset. In Penobscot Valley

  Maine, Central Penobscot.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flash flooding of fast

  responding creeks, and streams, and flooding of other low-lying

  and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - Locally heavy rainfall will begin by late Saturday afternoon

    to early Saturday evening and continue into Sunday morning,

    before tapering off by early Sunday afternoon. Around 1 to

    3.5 inches of rain are expected, with locally up to around 5

    inches of rain possible.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood

Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared

to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Buster

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1015 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

MEZ029-030-071015-

/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0003.231008T1000Z-231008T2200Z/

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

1015 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT

SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 10 feet expected in the

  surf zone.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will

  make for hazardous surf conditions. Large waves can present a

  danger to people on rocks above the water. Stay away from rock

  outcrops along the shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves

  can easily sweep people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in

the advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach

erosion.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1013 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

MEZ001-002-006-032-071015-

/O.CON.KCAR.WI.Y.0005.231008T0500Z-231008T1400Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Southeast Aroostook-

Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,

Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,

Mars Hill, Ashland, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, Smyrna Mills,

Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield

1013 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT

SUNDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph

  expected.

* WHERE...Northwest Aroostook, Northeast Aroostook, Southeast

  Aroostook and Northern Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and

  powerlines. Isolated to scattered power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

000

WTNT32 KNHC 061453

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe Advisory Number  53

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

1100 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

...PHILIPPE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL POSES A RISK OF FLASH

FLOODING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...

...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.7N 64.6W

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm

Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor

the progress of the post-tropical cyclone and refer to products

issued by their local weather offices.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone

Philippe was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 64.6 West.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near

16 mph (26 km/h).  A northward or north-northwestward motion at a 

faster forward speed is expected during the next few days.  On the 

forecast track, the system will continue passing Bermuda today and 

will reach the coast of Atlantic Canada or eastern New England 

Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so.  

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)

to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND:  Strong winds are possible over portions of Atlantic Canada

and eastern New England this weekend.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall will be diminishing across Bermuda today.  An

additional inch or less of rainfall is possible.

For portions of New York and New England, and Southeast Canada,

rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum amounts of 5

inches, are expected this weekend.  Isolated to scattered instances

of urban and flash flooding will be possible.

SURF:  Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda for the next

few days.  Swells are also affecting portions of the southeastern

U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to

Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  These conditions

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 

Center on this system.  Future information on potential flooding 

from this system in the Northeast U.S. can be found in products 

issued by the Weather Prediction Center on the web at 

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and in products issued by local National 

Weather Service Forecast offices on the web at www.weather.gov.

Additional information on marine impacts from this system can be 

found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 

under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 

ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$

Forecaster Berg

000

WTNT42 KNHC 061454

TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe Discussion Number  53

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023

1100 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

The center we were following overnight has become untrackable this 

morning and appears to have become absorbed by the nearby frontal 

zone.  In addition, the overall cloud pattern now has the look of a 

classic extratropical cyclone, with Philippe's center resembling 

the triple point of an occlusion.  Based on these recent 

developments, Philippe is being declared a post-tropical cyclone.  

The intensity remains 45 kt, mainly based on continuity.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or 

020/14 kt, but this movement is becoming less representative as the 

larger storm system takes over.  Philippe's remnant center and 

another non-tropical low to the west are likely to interact and/or 

merge with each other during the next day or two, but the overall 

system is expected to move northward or north-northwestward at 

increasing forward speed into the weekend.  This will bring the 

center of the post-tropical cyclone to the coast of Nova Scotia or 

Maine in about 48 hours, and then inland toward eastern Quebec 

before it becomes absorbed by a separate but larger extratropical 

low.

The post-tropical cyclone still has an opportunity to strengthen a 

bit over the next day or so due to baroclinic influences.  Due to 

the system's structure and forward motion, the strongest winds are 

expected to be on the eastern side of the circulation and will 

most likely affect portions of Atlantic Canada.  Weakening is 

forecast after the system moves inland.

Future information on potential flooding impacts in the Northeast 

United States can be found in products issued by the Weather 

Prediction Center on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and 

in products issued by local National Weather Service Forecast 

Offices on the web at http://weather.gov.

Additional information on marine impacts can be found in High Seas

Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS

header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 

ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.  

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to move over portions of 

Atlantic Canada and New England this weekend.  Interests in those 

areas should be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and 

heavy rainfall and monitor statements from their local weather 

office.  The rainfall may produce isolated to scattered instances of 

urban and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 30.7N  64.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 12H  07/0000Z 33.1N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  07/1200Z 36.3N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  08/0000Z 40.0N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  08/1200Z 44.9N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 60H  09/0000Z 49.1N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Berg