Winter Storm Quinlan Update One
000
FXUS61 KCAR 110216
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
916 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region overnight. Weak low
pressure will cross the region later Friday. A stronger
intensifying low will lift across the region Saturday then exit
across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure will cross the region
Monday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday.....
....Previous discussion:
High pressure will cross the region tonight, while a slow
moving frontal boundary approaches the Saint Lawrence River
Valley. Expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the
region early tonight with clouds then increasing overnight. High
pressure exits across the Maritimes Friday, while the frontal
boundary remains nearly stationary in the vicinity of the Saint
Lawrence Valley. Expect mostly cloudy skies across the region
Friday. The frontal boundary should help focus an area of light
snow across mostly northern areas Friday afternoon. Any snow
accumulations Friday afternoon are expected to be less than an
inch. Low temperatures tonight will range through the teens
north, to the lower to mid 20s interior Downeast with mid to
upper 20s along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Friday
will range from the lower to mid 30s north, to around 40 to the
lower 40s Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The large low pressure system will move NE towards the Mid
Atlantic states Friday night. Moisture with the leading boundary
will bring light snow showers across the west and north before
midnight. By early Saturday morning, the low will make its
way into New England, pushing the precip further south covering
the entire region. 12Z model guidance has several changes from
the previous forecast. To begin, the Euro has slowed down the
progression of the storm and pushed the track further south out
over the waters. In addition, the QPF amounts were drastically
decreased. The Canadian has sped up the progression of the
storm, bringing the QPF into the region slightly earlier. The
GFS model has remained consistent with the track and QPF
amounts. WPC guidance has started to trend QPF lower as well as
snow totals, so decided to follow this guidance. Another change
for all models were the temperatures are trending colder across
the region, bringing the rain/snow line further south. This also
changed the snow ratios slightly. Upper air model soundings
still indicate a low moist dendritic growth zone. This coupled
with warm airmass will create fairly heavy, wet snow across the
areas that will receive the most amount of snowfall. As temps
warm in the afternoon, the rain/snow line will advance
northward. This will mean the majority of the storm will produce
rain in the south. With the higher QPF amounts, there is a
concern for ice movement in area rivers and streams and further
flooding with the rains and any snowmelt.
By Saturday evening and into Saturday night, the low will start
to exit to the NNE, wrapping cold air behind it. Any lingering
precip should change to snow and start to taper off by early
Sunday morning. As the low starts to exit and the ridge starts
to approach, the pressure gradients behind the system will start
to tighten. This will produce some very gusty winds Saturday
evening and increase through Saturday night. For regions that
just experienced heavy snowfall, blowing snow is expected all
the way through to Sunday.
For Sunday, a weak ridge will move in, helping clear out skies
in the afternoon. Gusty NW winds will continue throughout the
day. Expect temps below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weak ridge will settle over the region Sunday night into
Monday. Sunday night will be fairly cold with the lingering cold
airmass. By Monday, the SW flow will help increase temps near
normal for the season. A cold front will approach Monday evening
and cross the region on Tuesday. Could be a chance of snow or
rain showers with the passage of the front on Tuesday. The rest
of the week should be fairly calm with possible precip Thursday
night.....
posted by Advackia at 8:46 PM
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