Tropical Depression Nicole Races Northeastward

5:30 PM AST Friday 11 November 2022

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

This is a correction to the 'next statement' line in the recent bulletin:

No more information statements from CHC are planned for this event unless there is a significant change.

Remainder of bulletin unchanged:

For Tropical Depression Nicole.

Tropical Depression Nicole is currently centered over western North Carolina and will be merging with a cold front and becoming post tropical this evening and overnight. The centre of this combined weather system will track through New England early tomorrow and into the Maritimes tomorrow evening.

This will essentially be an autumn type storm while impacting Eastern Canada as far west as Ontario. In fact, heavy rain well north of the depression has already spread into the Niagara and Toronto areas and will spread into southern Quebec this evening. Rain and wind will occur over the Maritime provinces with very mild, tropical temperatures and gusty winds over Nova Scotia (around 60 km/h) on the warm side and strong, cold northeasterly winds on the north side of the system. Parts of central and eastern Quebec and eventually Newfoundlland will even see some snow, Local weather statements and warnings have been posted for many areas.

Rainfall is forecast to be in the 50-75 mm range in the warned areas with a potential for 100 mm over far southern Quebec, central New Brunswick or over higher terrain in Newfoundland. We do not anticipate winds to be much of a concern except possibly over the Acadian Peninsula area of New Brunswick and the Gaspe region of Quebec (possibly gusts to 90 km/h). Elevated water levels and wave activity will occur over the northern Gulf of St Lawrence affecting northeastern New Brunswick and the Gaspe region that could cause some minor flooding. A storm surge warning is in effect along the eastern Gaspe peninsula and northern shore of the Bay of Chaleur.

This is the final planned bulletin from the CHC on this system.

Forecaster: FOGARTY

BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole Advisory Number  19

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL172022

400 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH

SATURDAY...

...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST

VIRGINIA/DELMARVA EARLY THIS EVENING...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE MID-

ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...37.7N 82.0W

ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA

ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

Tornado Watch 569 is in effect until 6 pm EST for northeast North

Carolina, eastern Virginia and adjacent Coastal Waters.

Flood Watches are in effect through late tonight along the spine of

the Appalachian Mountains from extreme northeast Georgia and

northwest South Carolina to western North Carolina and southwest

Virginia.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole

was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 47 mph (76

km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher

gusts. As the system has quickly transitioned to an extratropical

cyclone... and will orbit around the periphery of a deepening low

over the Great Lakes and southeast Canada... gusty surface winds

and pressure falls will persist across the Northeast into this

weekend. However, the risk of excessive rainfall and localized

flash flooding with this extratropical transition will continue to

diminish through Saturday and this will be the final advisory for

Nicole.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for post-tropical cyclone Nicole can be found in the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO

header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes will be possible early this

evening across portions of southeast Virginia and Delmarva.

RAINFALL:  Nicole is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches

of rain across the central Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic and

New England through Saturday morning.

Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River in Florida is

ongoing.

Across portions of the Appalachians, upper Ohio Valley,

Mid-Atlantic, and New England, through early Saturday, limited

flooding impacts will be possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with

Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with

the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:

available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction

Center on this system.

Forecaster G. Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 37.7N  82.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 12H  12/0600Z 42.5N  77.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  12/1800Z 46.1N  68.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

3:41 PM AST Friday 11 November 2022

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 50 to 70 mm.

Locations: Central and Southern New Brunswick.

Time span: Tonight through Saturday evening.

Remarks: The remnants of Tropical Depression Nicole will approach New Brunswick tonight. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin over western New Brunswick overnight tonight and in eastern New Brunswick by early Saturday morning. Rainfall rates will be high with this system until the rain tapers to showers or drizzle Saturday evening.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

3:40 PM AST Friday 11 November 2022

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 40 to 60 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: Nova Scotia

Time span: early Saturday until Saturday evening.

Remarks: The remnants of Tropical Depression Nicole will move into the Maritimes on Saturday. Rainfall rates are expected to high with this system until the rain tapers to drizzle Saturday evening.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

3:40 PM AST Friday 11 November 2022

Rainfall warning in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Total rainfall: 40 to 60 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Time span: Saturday morning through Saturday night.

Remarks: The remnants of Tropical Depression Nicole will move into the Maritimes on Saturday. Rainfall rates are expected to be high during the day on Saturday before the rain tapers to drizzle Saturday night.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@e