Easter Weekend Winter Storm Update One

Easter Weekend Winter Storm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

...WET SNOW AND WIND EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-040730-
/O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0019.150404T0700Z-150404T2200Z/
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA...
FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...PRESQUE ISLE...CARIBOU...VAN BUREN...
MARS HILL...BAKER LAKE...BILLY-JACK DEPOT...BAXTER ST PARK...
CHAMBERLAIN LAKE...CHURCHILL DAM...MOUNT KATAHDIN...MILLINOCKET...
EAST MILLINOCKET...PATTEN...MEDWAY...HOULTON...HODGDON...
SHERMAN...SMYRNA MILLS...GREENVILLE...MONSON...BLANCHARD...
LINCOLN...HOWLAND...SPRINGFIELD...DOVER-FOXCROFT...MILO...
GUILFORD...DANFORTH...VANCEBORO...TOPSFIELD
323 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
  RAIN FROM A DOVER FOXCROFT TOPSFIELD LINE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...
  BUT CHANGE TO SNOW THESE AREAS SATURDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LEAD TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
  HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN
  HEAVY SNOW BANDS ON SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT FALLING INTO
  THE 20S ON SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&
$$

HASTINGS

3:51 PM ADT Friday 03 April 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:

• Fredericton and Southern York County

Significant snowfall possible on Saturday.
A low pressure system is expected to develop over the New England area overnight tonight and track across the Maritimes on Saturday to lie over the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday evening.

Precipitation will begin Saturday morning over Central and Southern New Brunswick as rain or freezing rain and change over to snow by afternoon. Snow will taper to flurries before ending Saturday evening as the system pulls away. Snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 centimetres are expected however it is possible some areas of Central New Brunswick could see up to 15 centimetres.

Additionally, brisk northwest winds will develop in the wake of the system causing reduced visibilities in blowing snow along the East Coast.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

3:50 PM ADT Friday 03 April 2015
Snowfall warning in effect for:

• Stanley - Doaktown - Blackville Area

Snowfall, with total amounts of about 15 cm is expected.

A low pressure system is expected to develop over the New England area overnight tonight and track across the Maritimes on Saturday to lie over the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday evening.

Precipitation will begin overnight tonight as snow over northern New Brunswick. Central and southern regions of the province will see a mix of rain and freezing rain beginning Saturday morning before a change over to snow. Snow will taper to flurries before ending Saturday evening as the low pulls away. Snowfall amounts of 15 to 20 centimetres are expected.

Additionally, brisk northwest winds will develop in the wake of this system late in the day Saturday causing reduced viaibilities in blowing snow over parts of eastern New Brunswick.
Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Snowfall Warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NBStorm.

3:46 PM ADT Friday 03 April 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:

• Queens County P.E.I.

Significant snowfall and freezing rain possible on Saturday.
A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Maritimes on Saturday bringing mixed precipitation to PEI. Precipitation will begin as freezing rain or rain across the province before changing to snow as the system reaches Eastern Nova Scotia Saturday evening. Snowfall amounts could possibly exceed 15 centimetres especially for western portions of the island. In addition western portions of the island may also see a prolonged period of freezing rain Saturday morning. Brisk northwest winds will develop in the wake of the system causing reduced visibilities in blowing snow.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

Spring Flood Potential Outlook for Northern & Eastern Maine issued on April 2nd 2015

000
FGUS71 KCAR 021733
ESFCAR
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-041745-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
133 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...
CENTRAL...AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

THIS IS THE EIGHTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR
2015...ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE.
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE
TWO-WEEK PERIOD FROM APRIL 2 THROUGH APRIL 16, 2015.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS
SOUTH TO THE COAST IS ABOVE NORMAL. FOR NORTHERN MAINE, THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL, WITH FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY ON THE LOW END OF NORMAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THE ICE JAM POTENTIAL IN
NORTHERN MAINE IS NEAR NORMAL IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, IN THE
LONGER TERM, IT IS ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF
THE ICE. COASTAL WATERWAYS HAVE LOST MUCH OF THEIR ICE, SO THE
ICE JAM THREAT THERE HAS ENDED.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

MARCH WAS VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA REPORTING AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT
THE UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN MAY START SHIFTING TO A MORE SPRING-
LIKE ONE. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN FAST-
MOVING AND MILDER AIR FLOW WITH SYSTEMS MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND
EVERY FEW DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS LESS
THAN NORMAL, BECAUSE MUCH DEPENDS ON STORM TRACK AND WHERE THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP.

A FEW SUCH SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, MILD AIR WILL STREAM INTO
THE AREA, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL SERVE TO HELP PRIME THE SNOWPACK AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE
DIVIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM; NORTHERN AREAS, AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
AREAS AS WELL WILL LIKELY ADD TO THEIR SNOWPACK WHILE DOWNEAST
WILL SEE A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. COLD
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER, THINGS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE COLDER THAN NORMAL INTO MID APRIL,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF MILDER AIR, MUCH LIKE WE
WILL EXPERIENCE ON FRIDAY, WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR
APRIL 7 THROUGH APRIL 15 SUPPORTS THE ABOVE THINKING WELL, CALLING
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THAT TIME.


...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH SNOWMELT OR RUNOFF THROUGH MARCH OWING TO
THE CONTINUING COLD. THE SNOWPACK REMAINS VERY DEEP IN MANY AREAS
AND IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS
FAR NORTHERN MAINE, WHICH IS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS REPORTING SNOW DEPTHS OF 15 TO 25
INCHES, WITH SOME SPOTS COVERED WITH UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES OF SNOW.
FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IS STILL REPORTING NEARLY 3 FEET,
WHILE AREAS FROM BANGOR SOUTH ARE FINALLY SEEING A LESSENING OF
THE PACK, WITH 12 TO 20 INCHES BEING REPORTED. FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY ARE ALSO COVERED WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE AMOUNT OF WATER CONTAINED IN THE
SNOWPACK, IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN TO
THE COAST, WHERE SWES OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF WATER ARE COMMON.
FURTHER NORTH, THERE IS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOW, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL, TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
NORTH MAINE WOODS.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WE'VE EXPERIENCED, SOIL
MOISTURE STATES, BOTH IN THE NEAR AND LONG TERM, REMAIN QUITE DRY.
IN FACT, MANY GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE PINE TREE
STATE, INCLUDING HADLEY LAKES IN WASHINGTON COUNTY, ARE AT RECORD
LOW LEVELS FOR APRIL. THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX,
WHICH TAKES A LOOK AT MOISTURE STATES OVER THE LONGER RANGE OF
WEEKS TO MONTHS, SHOWS NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS DOWNEAST MAINE, WHICH IS STILL UNUSUALLY MOIST.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

WITH LITTLE TO NO RUNOFF OCCURRING, RIVER FLOWS HAVE CONTINUED TO
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY IN RECENT DAYS. FLOWS ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
WATERWAYS WHICH WOULD NORMALLY HAVE SEEN MUCH MORE SNOWMELT. WHILE
THESE RIVERS WILL SEE SOME RISES THIS WEEKEND, A RETURN TO COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW STREAM FLOWS TO AGAIN RECEDE NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE TO NO RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN RIVERS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ALL THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING, ESPECIALLY IN
OUR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, ALL RIVERS AWAY FROM THE COAST
REMAIN COVERED WITH ICE THAT IS BOTH THICKER AND STRONGER THAN
WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT IN EARLY APRIL. NORTHERN RIVERS
SUCH AS THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN ARE STILL COVERED WITH 1.5 TO
3 FEET OF ICE. THE PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS RIVERS HAVE ICE THAT
IS 1 TO 2 FEET THICK. THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE ICE-OUT
PROCESS IS CURRENTLY RUNNING A COUPLE OF WEEKS LATER THAN NORMAL.

WHILE WE'VE SEEN A BIT OF ICE MOVEMENT IN THE PISCATAQUIS AND
PENOBSCOT BASINS, THE ICE REMAINS LOCKED IN TIGHT ON THE SAINT
JOHN AND AROOSTOOK. THIS MEANS THAT THE ICE JAMS THAT WE'VE BEEN
WATCHING ALL WINTER REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE INTO MID APRIL, THESE JAMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OR BREAK UP. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BEAR WATCHING
AS WE HEAD INTO LATER APRIL AS THEY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR BREAK UP JAMS AND/OR WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ICE DEBRIS AVAILABLE
TO JAM DOWNSTREAM.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INFORMATION, THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE,
INCLUDING THE PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, AND SAINT CROIX RIVER
BASINS. ALTHOUGH RIVER FLOWS AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BELOW
NORMAL IN THESE AREAS, THE SNOWPACK AND THE WATER CONTAINED
THEREIN ARE BOTH ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS EXPECTED THAT RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THESE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE RISES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH OPEN WATER
FLOODING IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW AVAILABLE FOR MELT AND RUNOFF AND THE FACT
THAT WE'RE SEEING HINTS OF A TURN TO A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN
MORE THAN SUPPORTS AN ABOVE NORMAL THREAT OF FLOODING.

NORTHERN MAINE HAS A NEAR NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS. RIVER FLOWS AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BELOW
NORMAL HERE, AND THE SNOWPACK AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR
NORMAL. THIS MEANS THAT WE WOULD NEED AN ABNORMALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TO BRING RIVERS AND STREAMS UP TO FLOOD LEVELS. WE DO NOT
CURRENTLY FORESEE THAT SCENARIO PLAYING OUT IN NORTHERN MAINE, SO
A NEAR NORMAL THREAT FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING SEEMS JUSTIFIED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST BASINS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN
THE NEAR TERM AS MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN
RISES ON THESE WATERWAYS. WE'VE ALREADY SEEN SOME HINTS OF ICE
MOVEMENT ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND ITS TRIBUTARIES, AND THE ICE HAS
BEEN WEAKENING ON THE PENOBSCOT AS THE WATER HAS WARMED TO ABOVE
FREEZING. THEREFORE, ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
IN THESE WATERSHEDS. SHOULD ANY ICE MOVE, BREAK UP, AND/OR JAM, A
RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK COULD ALLOW THINGS TO
REFREEZE FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME. ANY ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS
THAT BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT AND ICE JAMS.

ACROSS THE NORTH, THE NEAR-TERM ICE JAM FLOODING POTENTIAL IS
NEAR NORMAL, WHILE IT'S ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONGER TERM. NORTHERN
MAINE WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SEE A PROLONGED WARM SPELL AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WEEKEND'S
STORM SYSTEM. IN FACT, THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY ADD TO THE SNOWPACK. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS THAT A MILDER
WEATHER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP, NORTHERN MAINE WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF ANY SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH, MUCH LIKE WILL OCCUR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THE RIVER ICE REMAINS
VERY STRONG AND THICK,, SO LITTLE TO NO ICE MOVEMENT IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THEREFORE, A NEAR
NORMAL THREAT FOR ICE JAMS SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER, THIS MEANS
THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE CARRYING A LOT OF STRONG ICE INTO MID
APRIL. IF NORTHERN MAINE DOES FINALLY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT AND
PROLONGED WARM UP, ESPECIALLY IF COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN, THIS
LINGERING ICE COULD BREAK UP AND CAUSE JAMS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BRING
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN IN AREAS THAT DON'T HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
NWS CARIBOU ON THURSDAY APRIL 16, 2015.

$$

HASTINGS