Winter/Spring Potential Flood Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 03/17/2022

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MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-241500-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

1055 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2022

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND 

DOWNEAST MAINE ...

THIS IS THE SIXTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2022,

ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS 

OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE TWO- 

WEEK PERIOD OF MARCH 17TH TO MARCH 31ST, 2022. 

THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS 

ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN & CENTRAL MAINE AND IS NORMAL ACROSS 

DOWNEAST AREAS. THE POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING AREA WIDE IS

NORMAL.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF MARCH 2022 HAVE GENERALLY FEATURED 

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL

PRECIPITATION. 

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED IN THE 

NORTHERN BASINS WITH THE COLDEST DEPARTURE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH 

WITH -2.6F AT CARIBOU. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE RANGED FROM 

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH +0.84 INCHES AT CARIBOU.

SNOW TOTALS DURING THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF MARCH WERE MOSTLY NEAR 

TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BELOW AVERAGE ALONG THE 

COAST. CARIBOU HAS SEEN 16.4 INCHES WITH A +3.9 INCH DEPARTURE 

FROM MARCH 1ST THROUGH MARCH 16TH. BANGOR HAS SEEN 5.0 INCHES WITH

A -4.1 DEPARTURE DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. 

A LA NINA PATTERN CONTINUES AT THIS TIME WITH THE LATEST OCEANIC 

NINO INDEX (ONI) IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION -1.0 CELSIUS. THIS EQUALS 

THE THREE MONTH ONI VALUE OF -1.0 CELSIUS FROM NOVEMBER 2021 TO 

JANUARY 2022. A LA NINA PATTERN USUALLY FEATURES AN ACTIVE BUT 

VARIABLE PACIFIC JET WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND 

SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE LA NINA 

PATTERN IS NOW FAVORED TO EXTEND INTO THE SUMMER OF 2022. 

THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION (NAO) AND THE 

ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) HAVE REMAINED IN POSITIVE PHASES DURING 

EARLY TO MID MARCH. IN ADDITION THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA (PNA) 

PATTERN WHICH SWITCHED TO THE NEGATIVE PHASE EARLIER THIS MONTH IS

NOW NEAR THE NEUTRAL PHASE. THIS COMBINATION HAS ADVOCATED FOR A 

FAST MOVING ACTIVE JET STREAM ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVE WEATHER 

SYSTEMS. COLDER AIR MASS EPISODES HAVE BEEN EITHER BRIEF OR 

MODIFIED WHEN REACHING THE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE NAO

AND AO PHASES MAY RETURN TO NEAR NEUTRAL NEARING THE END OF 

MARCH. SO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INCREASED TROUGHING COULD BRING 

SOMEWHAT COOLER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME. KEEP IN MIND 

THAT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MARCH ARE 

MOSTLY ABOVE 32F WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MUCH OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY. 

CURRENTLY CHANCES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME

ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PREVAIL THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF 

MARCH. 

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION'S 

6-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR 22-30 MARCH 2022 IS CURRENTLY IN GOOD 

AGREEMENT CALLING FOR CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH 

ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHORT TERM THEN NEAR NORMAL 

TEMPERATURES FOR A TIME IN THE LONG TERM. 

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTH RANGE IS FROM NEAR 20 TO AS MUCH AS 40 INCHES ACROSS 

NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE HIGHEST DEPTH IN THE NORTH WOODS WEST OF 

ROUTE 11 AND CHIMNEY POND IN BAXTER STATE PARK AT 47 INCHES. THE 

CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION VARY BETWEEN 10 

AND 25 INCHES. THE BANGOR REGION TO INTERIOR WASHINGTON COUNTY 

VARIES BETWEEN A TRACE TO AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES WITH MOST OF THE 

HIGHER DEPTHS IN INTERIOR WASHINGTON COUNTY. SNOW DEPTHS ARE 

CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH FOR EARLY MARCH BUT WELL BELOW 

NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE.

SNOW DEPTH HAS COMPLETELY MELTED IN MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE 

DOWNEAST COAST WITH EVEN A 8 ACRE BRUSH FIRE OCCURRING THE OTHER 

DAY IN TRESCOTT TOWNSHIP. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE AMOUNT

OF WATER CONSTRAINED IN THE SNOWPACK IS THE HIGHEST ACROSS 

NORTHERN MAINE WITH 7 TO 10 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER 

AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WOODS. THE NORTHERN 

HIGHLANDS INCLUDING MOOSEHEAD REGION VARIED BETWEEN 5 AND 9 

INCHES. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST INTO THE GREATER BANGOR AREA, 

WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 1 INCH OR LESS BUT INTERIOR

WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES IN THE DEEPER 

SNOWPACK. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS 

TIME OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE 

IT'S CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE SNOWPACK ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS

TO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS HAS RIPEN SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH MEANS IT 

WILL NOT ABSORB RAINFALL. IF WE SEE ANY RAINFALL EVENTS THE SNOW 

WILL MELT QUICKLY AND COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL AND RUN OFF GIVEN 

THE FROZEN GROUNDS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN 

AROOSTOOK COUNTY THE SNOWPACK IS APPROACHING “RIPE” STATUS 

WHILE IN NORTHERN AREAS THE PACK REMAINS VERY COLD & WELL BELOW 

RIPE STATUS. 

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE 

GIVEN THE DEEP FROST LEVELS 9-13 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH. 

ELSEWHERE THE SOIL MOISTURE IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT 

NOTE THE FROST DEPTH REMAINS 4-8 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS 

TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST, NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RECOVERY FOR SOIL 

MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. THE FROST HAS THAWED IN MANY LOCATIONS 

ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ABSORPTIONS. 

A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER LEVELS, COURTESY OF THE USGS, SHOWED ABOVE 

NORMAL LEVELS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL 

IN THE NORTH WOODS. ELSEWHERE, GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NORMAL FOR 

MID MARCH. THE NORTH WOODS CONTINUES TO SEE D0-D2 DROUGHT 

CONDITIONS BUT THE D1 AREAS OF FAR WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY HAS 

SHRUNK INTO MAINLY NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY. D2 EXISTS IN A VERY 

TINY LOCATION OF NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY NEAR THE QUEBEC BORDER. 

D0 CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. 

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH FOR 

THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN DOWNEAST AREAS.

ICE REMAINS VERY THICK ON THE AROOSTOOK, ST. JOHN, MATTAWAMKEAG, 

PORTIONS OF THE PENOBSCOT & PISCATAQUIS RIVERS. MUCH OF THE RIVERS

AND STREAMS IN DOWNEAST AREAS ARE FREE AND CLEAR OF ICE WITH THE 

RECENT WARM SPELLS AND RAINFALL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN 

AVERAGE FLOWS ON THESE RIVERS AND STREAMS. CURRENTLY, NEARLY 100% 

OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER IS COVERED IN ICE FROM THE HEADWATERS IN THE

NORTH WOODS TO DICKEY WHERE A LARGE ICE JAM FROM DECEMBER REMAINS

FROZEN IN PLACE. THIS ICE JAM POTENTIALLY EXTENDS INTO ST. 

FRANCIS AND ENDS BEFORE FORT KENT WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 15 MILES 

LONG. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THE JAM IS ONE ENTIRE JAM 

DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ON THE ICE. RECENT MEASUREMENTS OF THE 

SNOWPACK ON THE ICE IN THE ALLAGASH WAS 1 TO 2 FEET. THERE IS SOME

ICE ROT THAT RESULTED IN SMALL OPENINGS IN ST. FRANCIS BUT NOT 

EXPECTING ANY ICE MOVEMENT. IN PERSON OBSERVATIONS AND 

SENTINEL/LANDSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ST. JOHN IS SOLID 

WITH MAINLY SMOOTH ICE AND DEEP SNOWPACK FROM FORT KENT THROUGH TO

GRAND ISLE. THE ST. JOHN FEATURES SMOOTH SHEET ICE AND SOME 

JUMBLED ICE FROM GRAND ISLE THEN ONWARD TO HAMLIN WITH NO APPARENT

AREAS OF OPEN WATER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND THE 

CONSTRUCTION LOCATION OF THE NEW INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE IN 

MADAWASKA. OVERALL, ICE THICKNESS ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER VARIES 

BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3 FEET WITH ISOLATED THICKER AMOUNTS AROUND THE 

FROZEN ICE JAMS DUE TO ICE SHOVES. INDICATIONS SUGGEST THICKER 

ANCHOR ICE THAN LAST YEAR ON A MAJORITY OF THE ST. JOHN RIVER. IN 

ADDITION TO THE ANCHOR ICE WE HAVE INDICATIONS OF LAYERED “BLUE 

ICE” WHICH TYPICALLY REQUIRES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FORCE TO 

BREAK UP. 

THE ALLAGASH RIVER REMAINS COMPLETELY FROZEN BASED ON LATEST 

OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO APPARENT OPENINGS. 

SIMILAR TO THE ST. JOHN THE THICKNESS ESTIMATE IS 1.5 TO 3 FEET. 

THE FISH RIVER IS SEMI ICE COVERED WITH DECENT FLOW OF WATER 

COMING OUT OF THE LAKE CHAIN WHICH IS VERY NOTICEABLE IN FORT 

KENT.

THE AROOSTOOK RIVER IS FULLY ICE COVERED FROM THE HEADWATERS TO 

THE TOWN OF WADE WITH MAINLY 1 TO 3 FEET THICK SMOOTH ICE UNDER A 

DEEP SNOWPACK. THERE REMAINS AN ICE JAM FROZEN UNDER THE SNOWPACK 

FROM WADE/WASHBURN TO CROUSEVILLE BEFORE IT RETURNS TO MAINLY 

SMOOTH SHEET ICE IN PRESQUE ISLE. ICE REMAINS MAINLY THICK SHEET 

ICE BETWEEN PRESQUE ISLE AND THE CARIBOU DAM. BELOW THE CARIBOU 

DAM TO THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER, IT IS MAINLY SMOOTH SHEET ICE IN 

FORT FAIRFIELD. THE SNOWPACK REMAINS VERY DEEP ON THE ICE WHICH 

CONTINUES TO INSULATE THE ICE FROM SOLAR RADIATION INDUCED ICE ROT

AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALL INDICATIONS STILL POINT TO A 

VERY THICK LAYER OF “BLUE ICE” WHICH IS MUCH THICKER AND 

STRONGER ICE WHICH REQUIRES A GOOD AMOUNT OF FORCE TO BREAK UP. IN

ADDITION TO THE “BLUE ICE” THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE ANCHOR 

ICE IS THICKER THAN LAST YEAR GIVEN THE LOWER FLOWS NEARLY ALL 

WINTER LONG. 

ON THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A 

FROZEN RIVER WITH VERY FEW OPENINGS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH DAMS. 

THERE ARE STRETCHES OF THE ICE THAT ARE UP TO 15 INCHES THICK 

ESPECIALLY IN DOVER-FOXCROFT. RECENT WARM SPELLS HAVE ALLOWED FOR 

SOME ICE ROT TO OCCUR WHICH MAY HAVE CREATED WEAKNESS IN THE ICE 

IN MANY AREAS. POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MAINLY 

FROZEN PENOBSCOT RIVER ABOVE THE MILFORD DAM. BELOW THE MILFORD 

DAM TO EDDINGTON, MAINLY OPEN RIVER BUT THERE ARE SOME BROKEN 

AREAS OF ICE BETWEEN EDDINGTON TO UNION ST BRIDGE IN 

BANGOR/BREWER. THE KENDUSKEAG STREAM IS MAINLY FROZEN FROM ITS 

HEADWATER TO GRIFFIN ROAD, BELOW GRIFFIN ROAD TO I-95 OVERPASS IS 

MAINLY OPEN WATERS. ICE CONTINUES TO ROT BUT REMAINS STUCK IN 

DOWNTOWN BANGOR WITH THE CHANNEL IN DOWNTOWN HAVING BUSTED UP 

THICK PIECES OF ICE THAT HAVE JAMMED UP. THIS IS LIKELY DUE ICE ON

THE PENOBSCOT AT THE MOUTH OF THE KENDUSKEAG PREVENTING THE ICE 

FROM GETTING INTO THE PENOBSCOT. NO FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED 

AT THIS TIME. THE PENOBSCOT RIVER BELOW THE UNION ST BRIDGE TO THE

GULF OF MAINE LOOKS COMPLETELY OPEN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 

MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER IS NEARLY 100% FROZEN THE ENTIRE STRETCH MINUS 

SOME SMALL OPENINGS IN THE TOWN OF KINGMAN. THE LATEST IMAGERY 

FROM LANDSAT-8 SATELLITE SHOWS THE NARRAGUAGUS RIVER FROZEN ACROSS

THE HEADWATERS AND THEN OPENED IN CHERRYFIELD. LASTLY, THERE IS 

STILL SOLID ICE ON THE ST. CROIX RIVER FROM GRAND LAKE TO GRAND 

FALLS FLOWAGE. RIVER IS MAINLY OPEN SOUTH OF THE FLOWAGE TO CALAIS

AND WIDE OPEN TO THE LARGE TIDAL INFLUENCE OF PASSAMAQUODDY BAY. 

...IN CONCLUSION...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS 

NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL

ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINE. IT WILL TAKE THE

COMBINATION OF PROLONGED SIGNIFICANT WARMTH, MELTING OF SNOWPACK 

AND PRECIPITATION OR MULTIPLE EPISODES OF MELT TO MOVE THE ICE. 

THE CHANCE OF THESE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 

TWO WEEKS. 

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, 

MARCH 31ST. 

$$

SINKO/ASTRAUSER