Henri Weakens To A TD Over Connecticut After Making Landfall As A TS In Rhode Island

000

WTNT33 KNHC 230243

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Henri Advisory Number  29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021

1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SLOW-MOVING HENRI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL

AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE

NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...41.9N 73.2W

ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF NEW YORK CITY

ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri 

was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 73.2 West. The 

depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), 

and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected 

through early Monday morning.  A slow turn toward the north is 

expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the 

east-northeast Monday afternoon.  A faster motion toward the 

east-northeast is expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, Henri 

is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the 

Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across Massachusetts 

on Monday afternoon and Monday night and over the Atlantic on 

Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some additional slow weakening is likely during the next couple of 

days.

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 

1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC

and on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:  Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 

6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long 

Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast 

Pennsylvania through Monday.  Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12 

inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New 

York.  Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in 

considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the 

potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with 

Tropical Depression Henri see the following link: 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

SURF:  Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast 

of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into Monday.  These 

swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane

Center on Tropical Depression Henri.  Future information on this 

system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather 

Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header 

TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

WTNT43 KNHC 230243

TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Henri Discussion Number  29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021

1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri has continued to weaken over land and synoptic surface 

observations indicate that its maximum winds have decreased to near 

25 kt.  A little more weakening is likely during the next 48 hours, 

and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that 

the system will be post-tropical after its expected re-emergence 

into the Atlantic in 36 hours or so.  Beyond 48 hours the dynamical 

guidance suggests that the system will lose its identity.

Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that the center is 

moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt.  Henri is interacting 

with another cyclonic circulation over the northeastern United 

States.  As a result of this interaction, the tropical cyclone is 

expected to briefly come to a halt overnight, turn toward the 

east-northeast on Monday, and continue an east-northeastward motion 

into Tuesday.  The official forecast track is similar to the 

dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

Although Henri's winds are weakening, the cyclone will still

continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant

flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern 

mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two.

This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Henri.

Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories 

issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under 

AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, 

urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for 

additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions 

of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and 

northeast Pennsylvania.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 41.9N  73.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 12H  23/1200Z 42.1N  73.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 24H  24/0000Z 42.4N  72.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 36H  24/1200Z 42.8N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 48H  25/0000Z 43.4N  65.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 60H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Pasch

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1110 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-231515-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-

Northern Washington-

1110 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, North

Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

For Monday into Tuesday, there is still some uncertainty in regards

to Henri`s track toward the New England region. Stay up to date on

the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1012 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

MEZ029-030-231015-

/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210823T1200Z/

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

1012 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Coastal Washington and Coastal Hancock Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...High dangerous surf and strong rip currents will

  make for hazardous surf conditions. Large waves can present a

  danger to people on rocks above the water. Stay away from rock

  outcrops along the shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves

  can easily sweep people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in

the advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach

erosion.

&&

8:56 PM ADT Sunday 22 August 2021

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia

For Tropical Depression Henri.

THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED FOR 03:00 A.M. ADT.

Tropical Depression Henri continues inland over New England.

1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 09:00 P.M. ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 41.7 NORTH 72.8 WEST ABOUT 120 KM SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY NEW YORK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 MILLIBARS.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS.

Tropical Depression Henri continues to weaken and slow down as it moves inland over New England, possibly making it as far west into the state of New York before making the turn east towards the Maritimes on Monday.

Forecast guidance continues to indicate that some remnant moisture from Henri will cross the southern Maritimes Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will be variable but some regions in the Maritimes could see 20 to 40 millimetres by Tuesday evening.

No significant wind is expected over Maritimes land areas at this time.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS.

Long period swell up to 2 metres along the Atlantic coast with waves breaking higher along parts of the coast will begin to subside overnight and into Monday. Ocean waves of 2 to 4 metres over marine regions south and west of Nova Scotia will also begin to subside tonight into Monday.

There is a threat for rip tides along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia into Monday, and caution should be observed.

Please check for updates regularly from the CHC at www.hurricanes.ca and our twitter feed @ECCC_CHC.

FORECASTER(S): MCARTHUR/MARCH

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

000

FXUS61 KCAR 222250

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

650 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

High pres will remain across the region tonight with a frontal

boundary draped across the coastal waters. Henri will move east

across southern New England on Monday and dissipate while

tracking across our region on Tuesday. High pressure will build

over the area Wednesday. Low pressure will track north of the

area on Thursday with a cold front moving across the region

Thursday evening. High pressure will build into the area on

Friday.....

Previous Discussion...

Tropical Storm Henri continues to track into southern New

England this afternoon. This system will continue to weaken as

Henri spends more time over land. Eventually the remnants of

Henri will eject eastward out over the Gulf of Maine. In the

meantime, the outer rain bands of Henri are beginning to

encroach on our coast. This will be the first chance at rainfall

from the system, with scattered showers moving into the

Downeast region this evening. Rain showers will continue to

spread northwards through Monday morning and spread all the way

up through the St. John Valley.

Humid conditions will continue tonight as a tropical airmass

continues to sit over our area. With light winds and dewpoints

in the low to mid-60s, fog will once again be a threat to

visibility across the entire region. Locally dense fog is

possible, especially along the coast tomorrow morning.

High temperatures will remain warm Monday afternoon despite

mostly cloudy skies, due to the warm tropical airmass in place.

Highs will reach into the upper 70s to around 80 across the

north where breaks in the clouds are possible, and will stay in

the mid-70s Downeast due to the persistent marine layer.

&&

.....SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The remnant low of Henri along with an upper lvl trof will be

crossing the FA Mon Ngt into Tue morn with shwrs and perhaps

isold tstms with elevated CAPE with patchy to areas of msly

late ngt and erly morn fog with moist tropical air in place as

precip waters reach into the 1.50 - 2.00 inch range across our

Rgn. A few models are now indicating more QPF for areas alg the

NB border Mon Ngt into Erly Tue Morn, but not all models agree,

so we increased QPF and PoPs only somewhat ovr this area in the

event new model runs back off from this scenario.

Tue aftn will see more in the way of some sunshine and a return

of warmer hi temps, but left ovr moisture and instabilty could

result in sct tstms, with increasing capping alf with the apch

of upper lvl ridging likely keeping tstms fairly low topped.

Showers and tstms should dissipate erly Tue Eve with the loss of

dytm htg. Otherwise, skies should clr Tue ngt with ptly to msly

sunny skies and cont`d very warm and humid for Wed.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Msly clr and humid conditions will cont Wed Ngt. On Thu, a

stronger cold front will apch from QB by aftn, bringing another

chc of sct aftn/eve shwrs/tstms to the Rgn. Behind this front,

sig cooler and much drier air will move into the FA for late Thu

ngt thru Fri on a fresh NW breeze. Fri Ngt will be fairly chilly

as Can sfc hi pres settles ovr FA by late ngt. Sat will be fair

with slightly warmer aftn hi temps. A warm front will bring some

cldnss alg with a chc of shwrs to Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA for

late Sat Ngt into Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue across all terminals

north of BGR under mostly clear skies this afternoon. BGR/BHB

remain MVFR, though ceilings will quickly fall to IFR as the

first rain bands from Henri push into the area. LIFR conditions

likely overnight tonight with scattered rain showers moving over

the coast, and fog building in reducing visibilities further.

Northern terminals will also fall to IFR as ceilings lower and

showers move in, and visibilities may decrease to IFR/LIFR in

patchy fog. Not much improvement expected during the day on

Monday, though northern terminals may become MVFR during the day

as ceilings lift slightly due to diurnal heating. BGR/BHB will

likely remain IFR through the day on Monday with low ceilings. Light

E to SE winds at around 5 kts expected through the period.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mon Ngt - Tue Morn...Low MVFR - LIFR all

TAF sites in shwrs and fog. Lgt winds.

Tue Aftn...MVFR to VFR clgs all TAF sites. Sct shwrs/tstms. Lgt

winds xcpt in tstms.

Tue Ngt - Thu Morn...VFR all TAF sites.

Thu Aftn/Eve...Low VFR clgs with sct shwrs/tstms all TAF sites

with brief MVFR vsbys possible in heavier downpours. Lgt winds

Late Thu Ngt - Fri...VFR all TAF sites with lgt to mdt NW winds.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Seas will remain above SCA levels tonight as

southerly swell associated with Tropical Storm Henri moves in.

Seas are expected to drop below SCA levels Monday afternoon.

Winds may briefly gust to 25 kts tonight before tapering off on

Monday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and seas just below SCA criteria Mon

Ngt into Tue with left ovr swell from the remnant low of Henri,

then seas diminishing by late week as winds remain msly lgt.

Kept close to blended model wv guidance with wvs dominated by

long pd swell of 10 to 12 sec Mon Ngt thru Wed Eve before

shorter fetch wv pds of 8 sec or less dominate late Wed Ngt and

beyond. Marine fog will dominate Mon Ngt into Tue before winds

shift from offshore and dissipate fog.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

High astronomical tides and Tropical Storm Henri will bring

near-shore waves to around 5 feet with 12 to 15 second periods

through the overnight hours. High tide will occur around 11:45pm

tonight and with long period swell expect have issued High Surf

Advisory for coastal areas. Dangerous rip currents are also

expected.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for MEZ029-030.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/Strausser

Short Term...VJN

Long Term...VJN

Aviation...AStrauser/VJN

Marine...AStrauser/VJN

Tides/Coastal Flooding...VJN/Strausser

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021

1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

 

...TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE 

ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY...

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler 

weather radars, and surface observations indicate that the center of 

Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island 

near Westerly at approximately 1215 PM EDT this afternoon. At the 

time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 60 

mph.

A Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently 

measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph 

(113 km/h). The center of Henri passed over Block Island, Rhode 

Island, around 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC.

  

SUMMARY OF 1215 PM EDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...41.3N 71.8W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

 

$$

Forecaster Stewart/Brennan

 

NNNN