000
WTNT43 KNHC 282052
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
Satellite images, radar data from Cuba and Key West, and surface
observations indicate the depression has turned northward over the
past few hours, and has also strengthened into a tropical storm.
The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a surface observation of
35 kt in a brief squall from Grand Cayman at 1444Z, a recent AMSU
estimate of 37 kt, and average Key West Doppler radar velocities of
40 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft just north of the Cuban coast; the
latter data equates to an approximate surface wind speed of 36 kt.
The initial motion estimate is now 355/25 kt based on radar data and
high-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery over the past 2-3
hours. The low-level wind flow pattern for the next 6 hours or so is
forecast to be complex, with a new non-tropical surface low having
recently formed about 100 nmi west of Key West, Florida. This
feature appears to have developed beneath an upper-level jet
entrance region ahead of an approaching cold front. The global,
regional, and even the convective-scale models are now showing the
center of Philippe moving general northward across the Straits of
Florida this evening and merging with the non-tropical low around
0000Z. After the merger over Florida Bay, the various models are in
good agreement on Philippe moving northeastward to
east-northeastward across extreme southern Florida or the Florida
Keys overnight as the cyclone is accelerated ahead of the
aforementioned frontal system and strong mid-/upper-level trough.
After reaching the northwestern Bahamas by 1200Z Sunday morning,
Philippe is forecast to accelerate further towards the northeast at
forward speeds of 30-35 kt, by Sunday afternoon and evening,
remaining well offshore of the Carolinas. By 36 hours, Philippe is
expected to pass about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern
United States, and gradually getting pulled north-northeastward up
the east side of a powerful baroclinic low that is forecast to
develop near Cape Hatteras and move northward near the U.S. east
coast. The NHC track guidance is in reasonable agreement on this
developing track scenario, and lies between the GFS model, which
takes Philippe across the Florida Keys, and the ECMWF model, which
moves the cyclone farther north over South Florida.
The vertical wind shear affecting Philippe is expected to remain
favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours, along
with an additional baroclinic boost from the aforementioned
upper-level jet maximum. By 36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing
associated with the approaching frontal system are forecast to
induce additional strengthening before the cyclone merges with
the frontal system and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours.
Dissipation or absorption by a larger extratropical low is expected
by 72 hours when the system is located over the cold waters of the
North Atlantic.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across
the Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest
winds are expected to remain east and southeast of the center.
However, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur
in brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast
Florida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains
in effect for these areas.
2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat
from this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized
flooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South
Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 23.0N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
FXUS61 KCAR 282022
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
422 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region tonight. Low pressure
will rapidly approach from the south on Sunday and intensify as
it tracks west of the area late Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure across the area will bring a mostly clear
evening. Clouds will begin to increase from the west overnight
as the high moves east of the region and a trough of low
pressure approaches. The trough is expected to dig into the
southeast, becoming negatively tilted, and develop low pressure
off the Southeast coast on Sunday. Tropical depression 18, which
is crossing Cuba today, is expected to quickly track north and
become pulled into the southeastern low on Sunday. Low pressure
is then expected to rapidly lift north and intensify. Low clouds
will be across our area on Sunday. Strong low pressure to our
southwest will bring increasing clouds Sunday night as rain
moves across our area. The strong low to our west with an
intense pressure gradient between this low and high pressure
well to our east is expected to bring high winds late Sunday
night through Monday as the low lifts north. The circulation
from tropical depression 18, which may develop into a tropical
storm, could bring a concentrated area of very high winds Monday
morning with the best chance for high winds along the coast.
Rain will likely taper off to showers around mid morning Monday
as the initial surge of moisture pulls north and some mid level
drying gets pulled into the system. Rainfall amounts close to 2
inches in western areas may result in rises of small streams and
some ponding in low lying areas. Winds will become southwesterly
Sunday afternoon with strong gusts likely continuing as some
cold advection begins to pull in from the west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gusty winds expected Monday evening as the pres gradient looks
to hold through mid evening and then start to abate by midnight
as the intense low passes n of Quebec. Decided to push gusts to
35+ mph Monday evening mainly across the northern 1/2 of the
CWA. Southern areas look like they will see less wind. The
latest long range guidance is aligning well w/showing winds to
stay up into Tuesday. There is much colder air to follow Monday
night into Tuesday. A second front is expected to usher in
another round winds on Tuesday w/even colder air. The ECMWF and
GFS both show the chance for some showers across the north and
west. Decided to stay w/20-30% pops to cover this. Tuesday`s
maxes will dependent on cloud cover especially across the northern
1/2 of the CWA. For now, used a blend for Tuesday daytime temps
showing readings a bit above normal for Halloween.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The colder air will continue to funnel into the region Tuesday
night as high pres settles across the region. It looks as
though 925MB temps could drop to around -3C across far northern
areas by Wednesday morning. This would translate to temps down
into the mid 20s for portions of the northern and western
areas. The high is forecast to slide off the east on Wednesday
w/winds turning the sse. The 12z suite of the long range
guidance show a warm front lifting n Wednesday night into
Thursday. The GFS show a wetter scenario and faster timing w/the
warm front by Thursday morning. The ECMWF is slower and holds
the bulk of the showers back across the n and w. Decided to take
a blend of the guidance and go w/30% pops into Thursday
morning. The more significant action comes later Thursday into
Thursday night w/the apch of the cold front. The GFS is by far
the wettest of the guidance w/the front as it is pointing to the
potential of up to 1 inch of rainfall. The ECMWF is less wet
and has been consistent w/this apch. Confidence is high enough
to bring pops up to later Thursday into Friday to 50-60%. Temps
will warm well above normal both Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area through
most of tonight. Conditions will lower to MVFR across the north
and IFR Downeast early Sunday morning, then likely remain MVFR
in variable low clouds on Sunday. IFR conditions with increasing
winds are expected Sunday night. IFR to LIFR conditions, high
winds and rain are expected Monday with wind shear likely.
SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions Monday night into early Tuesday
mainly for the northern TAF sites. Rest of the area seeing VFR.
VFR for all sites for Tuesday night into Wednesday. The caveat
to this will be the potential for some MVFR/IFR vsbys for fog
especially KPQI and KFVE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA through midday
Sunday then increase to SCA Sunday afternoon. Winds should build
to gale Sunday night and then increase to storm from late Sunday
night through Monday as a powerful storm lifts up to our west.
This is a potentially dangerous storm with the possibility that
tropical depression 18 will become a tropical storm and quickly
lift across the waters early Monday enhancing the strong winds.
Seas may build to 20 ft or more on Monday in response to the
storm. There is some concern for some spashover at high tide
Monday morning especially Seawall Rd in Hancock County.
SHORT TERM: Looks like Storm conditions dropping off to Gales by
early evening w/gusts to 40 kts. Seas will start to drop off
Monday night as a sw flow takes over. Conditions will fall back
on Tuesday w/winds dropping back to 20-25 kts and seas down to 6
ft.
Things will continue to drop off into Wednesday as high pres
ridges across the region. Winds are expected to drop off to
around 10 kts w/seas down to 2-3 ft.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for MEZ002-005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/Hewitt
Marine...Bloomer/Hewitt
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Gray ME
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
...Heavy rainfall Sunday night into Monday morning...
.
Rapidly deepening low pressure along the mid atlantic coast will
race northward into New England Sunday night before exiting to
the north on Monday. This will bring another round of heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds Sunday night into Monday.
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>015-290830-
/O.CON.KGYX.FF.A.0004.171030T0000Z-171030T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-
Coastal Waldo-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-
Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-
Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron,
Middle Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc,
Rangeley, Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua,
Long Pond, Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman,
Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills, Milton, Newry,
Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New Sharon,
New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Athens,
Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra, Pittsfield, Embden, Madison,
Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton,
Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham,
Bridgton, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner,
Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro,
Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty,
Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, Biddeford, Saco,
Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Portland, Cape Elizabeth,
South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath,
Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden,
Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor,
Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden,
Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont,
Lincolnville, Errol, Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin, Dummer,
Milan, York Pond, Lancaster, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton,
Sugar Hill, Thornton, Waterville Valley, Woodstock, North Conway,
Albany, Conway, Chatham, Crawford Notch, Lyme, Ashland,
Ellsworth, Holderness, Plymouth, Rumney, Wakefield, Bridgewater,
Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro, Moultonborough,
Claremont, Cornish, Croydon, Goshen, Grantham, Lempster, Newport,
Charlestown, Boscawen, Canterbury, Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon,
Hooksett, Laconia, Gilford, Meredith, Barrington, Rochester,
Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Gilsum, Keene,
Marlow, Sullivan, Surry, Jaffrey, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua,
Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead,
Exeter, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls,
North Hampton, Seabrook, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon,
Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* Portions of Maine and New Hampshire, including the following
areas, in Maine, Androscoggin, Central Somerset, Coastal
Cumberland, Coastal Waldo, Coastal York, Interior Cumberland,
Interior Waldo, Interior York, Kennebec, Knox, Lincoln,
Northern Franklin, Northern Oxford, Sagadahoc, Southern
Franklin, Southern Oxford, and Southern Somerset. In New
Hampshire, Belknap, Cheshire, Coastal Rockingham, Eastern
Hillsborough, Interior Rockingham, Merrimack, Northern
Carroll, Northern Coos, Northern Grafton, Southern Carroll,
Southern Coos, Southern Grafton, Strafford, Sullivan, and
Western And Central Hillsborough.
* From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
* Heavy rainfall ranging from 1 to 3 inches. Some locally higher
amounts is possible in the foothills and mountain areas.
* Excessive rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding
along with a chance of urban and small stream flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
&&
$$
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
321 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
...High winds possible Sunday night into Monday morning...
.A rapidly deepening low pressure system along the mid atlantic
coast Sunday will race northward into New England Sunday night
before exiting to the north on Monday. This may cause damaging
winds Sunday night into early Monday.
MEZ018>028-NHZ014-290845-
/O.CON.KGYX.HW.A.0001.171030T0400Z-171030T1500Z/
Interior York-Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-
Interior Waldo-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-
Knox-Coastal Waldo-Coastal Rockingham-
Including the cities of Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford,
Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray,
North Windham, Gorham, Bridgton, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus,
Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney,
Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson,
Knox, Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity,
Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Portland,
Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick,
Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin,
Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta,
Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head,
Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast,
Northport, Searsmont, Lincolnville, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye,
Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, and Seabrook
321 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
* Winds...Southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.
* Timing...Winds will increase significantly late Sunday evening
and continue into early Monday.
* Impacts...Damaging winds may result in downed trees and power
lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be
difficult...especially for high profile vehicles.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph...or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.
&&
$$
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
308 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
...Significant wind event possible Sunday night through Monday
for all of Downeast and eastern Maine.
.Intensifying low pressure will pass west of the region Sunday
night and Monday. This will result in the potential for damaging
winds later Sunday night into Monday.
MEZ015>017-029-030-290315-
/O.EXT.KCAR.HW.A.0001.171030T0600Z-171031T0000Z/
Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Including the cities of Bangor, Brewer, Orono, Old Town, Amherst,
Aurora, Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond, Orland, Calais,
Grand Lake Stream, Wesley, Perry, Princeton, Ellsworth,
Bar Harbor, Bucksport, Castine, Eastport, Machias,
and Cherryfield
308 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
* WINDS...South 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.
* TIMING...Winds will increase significantly after midnight
Sunday night, and are forecast to continue through Monday.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down tree limbs and a few
trees. Scattered power outages are possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph...or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.
&&
$$
MCB
4:13 PM ADT Saturday 28 October 2017
Special weather statement in effect for:
Fredericton and Southern York County
A low pressure system near Cape Hatteras Sunday morning will merge with a tropical feature later in the day, and then rapidly intensify as it approaches New England Sunday night and Monday. This intensifying system has the potential to turn into a very large and powerful fall storm. Rainfall amounts of 20 to 40 mm are likely with locally higher totals possible over western regions.
This storm will bring very strong southerly winds to the region with wind gusts likely reaching warning criteria. Rough pounding surf will spread along the Fundy coast Monday morning and to the Acadian peninsula southern coastline in the afternoon.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.
4:05 PM ADT Saturday 28 October 2017
Special weather statement in effect for:
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
A low pressure system near Cape Hatteras Sunday morning will merge with a tropical feature later in the day, then rapidly intensify as it approaches New England Sunday night and Monday. This intensifying system has the potential to turn into a very large and powerful fall storm. Rainfall amounts of 20 to 40 mm are likely with locally higher totals possible over western regions.
This storm will bring very strong southerly winds to the region with gusts likely reaching warning criteria, especially near coastal
areas. Dangerously rough pounding surf will spread along the Atlantic coast throughout the day Monday. In addition, higher than normal water levels can be expected at high tide Monday evening.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.
4:16 PM ADT Saturday 28 October 2017
Special weather statement in effect for:
Queens County P.E.I.
A low pressure system near Cape Hatteras Sunday morning will merge with a tropical feature later in the day, then rapidly intensify as it approaches New England Sunday night and Monday. This intensifying system has the potential to turn into a very large and powerful fall storm. Rain will spread across the region on Monday, and very strong southerly winds with gusts likely reaching warning criteria will develop later in the day.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.
