Heatwave Day One - 09/04/2023, Quebec Wildfire Smoke Prompts Air Quality Adversaries In Maine and NW New Brunswick

Maine

East Sangerville

Max: 90°F/32.2°C

Min: 71°F/21.7°C

7:53 PM ADT Tuesday 5 September 2023

Smoke is causing or expected to cause poor air quality and reduced visibility.

Smoke from forest fires in Quebec is causing a reduction to air quality.

Locations: Northwestern New Brunswick.

Time span: Tonight and Wednesday.

Remarks: Associated haze will likely give the sun a reddish appearance.

Individuals may experience symptoms such as increased coughing, throat irritation, headaches or shortness of breath. Children, seniors, and those with cadiovascular or lung disease, such as asthma, are especially at risk. 

Visit airhealth.ca for information on how to reduce your health risk and your personal contribution to pollution levels, as well as for current and forecast AQHI values.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBstorm.

People with lung disease (such as asthma) or heart disease, older adults, children, pregnant people, and people who work outdoors are at higher risk of experiencing health effects caused by wildfire smoke. Speak with your health care provider about developing a management plan for wildfire smoke events and maintaining a supply of necessary medications at home and always carrying these medications with you during wildfire season.

Stop or reduce your activity level if breathing becomes uncomfortable or you or someone in your care feel unwell. Contact your health care provider or local health authority if you develop severe symptoms or need advice.

Check the Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) and monitor your symptoms. People respond differently to smoke. Mild irritation and discomfort are common, and usually disappear when the smoke clears. Drinking lots of water can help your body cope with the smoke.

Be sure to check on people in your care and those around you who may be more susceptible to smoke.

Reduce sources of indoor air pollution. If you can, avoid smoking or vaping indoors, burning incense and candles, frying foods, using wood stoves and vacuuming. Dust on indoor surfaces can be removed by wiping and wet mopping during a pollution episode.

If you experience any feelings of stress, anxiety, or depression, contact your mental health care provider for advice or visit Wellness Together Canada.

Visit airhealth.ca for information on how to reduce your health risk and your personal contribution to pollution levels, as well as for current and forecast AQHI values.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Issued by Environment Canada, the New Brunswick Department of Environment and Local Government and the New Brunswick Department of Health

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Gray ME

417 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

MEZ012>014-018>022-033-NHZ003>006-009-010-062030-

Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-

Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-

Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-

Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Belknap-Strafford-

417 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,

southwest Maine, western Maine, central New Hampshire and northern

New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Afternoon heat indices will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s

each afternoon through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Caribou ME

314 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-060600-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,

Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,

Mars Hill, Ashland, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park,

Chamberlain Lake, Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Millinocket,

East Millinocket, Patten, Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman,

Smyrna Mills, Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, Lincoln, Howland,

Springfield, Bangor, Brewer, Orono, Old Town, Amherst, Aurora,

Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond, Calais, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley,

Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport, Orland, Castine,

Eastport, Perry, Machias, Cherryfield, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo,

Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield

314 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...Patchy Smoke Expected This Evening and Tonight...

Wildfire in Canada will produce patchy smoke across the region

this evening and tonight. Reduced visibility is possible with

patchy smoke. Sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged

or heavy exertion.

$$

Tropical Storm Lee Forms Between Africa And The Leeward Islands, Could Pose A Grave Long-range Threat To Our Region And USA Eastern Seaboard

000

WTNT33 KNHC 060237

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...LEE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS

HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 43.0W

ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of

this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was 

located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 43.0 West. Lee is moving 

toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is 

expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction 

in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with 

higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Lee is forecast to 

become a hurricane by tomorrow night and a major hurricane by 

Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

000

WTNT33 KNHC 051456

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 40.2W

ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

None.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of

this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression

Thirteen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 40.2 West.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24

km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few 

days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The depression is forecast to be a hurricane in a couple of days 

and could become a major hurricane in a few days. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.

Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Blake

832 

WTNT43 KNHC 060238

TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

The satellite structure of Lee has continued to improve tonight. A 

prominent curved band of deep convection wraps around the western 

and southern portions of the circulation. Recent SSMIS and GMI 

microwave images reveal deep convection is occurring near the 

center, though it is slightly displaced by some northeasterly shear. 

There are also hints of a formative inner core trying to take shape, 

all of which suggest that Lee is strengthening. The initial 

intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory, in best agreement 

with a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Lee continues to move west-northwestward at about 15 kt. A mid-level 

ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic is expected to be the 

primary steering mechanism for the next several days, with Lee 

forecast to continue on a west-northwestward heading across the 

central tropical Atlantic through the forecast period. Once again, 

the track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario. 

Overall, the latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the 

previous prediction, with only minor adjustments that keep our 

forecast between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Users are 

reminded that the average NHC forecast track errors are around 125 

and 175 n mi on days 4 and 5, respectively. Thus, it is too soon to 

determine exactly how close this system will be to the Leeward 

Islands by the weekend.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear extremely favorable 

for rapid intensification (RI) during the next several days, 

particularly once the northeasterly shear over Lee subsides in a day 

or so. The forecast track of Lee brings the cyclone over anomalously 

warm SSTs during the next several days, with generally low shear and 

favorable upper diffluence to support significant strengthening. The 

updated NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly higher 

than the previous one, toward the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. This 

forecast calls for Lee to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major 

hurricane by 60 h, with continued intensification thereafter. It is 

noted that the regional hurricane models depict even stronger 

solutions, so future adjustments could be necessary. Regardless, 

Lee bears close monitoring as there is high confidence it will 

become a very powerful hurricane by this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by late this week and 

could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands this weekend. While it is 

too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible 

impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of Lee 

and further updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 13.5N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  06/1200Z 14.1N  44.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  07/0000Z 14.9N  47.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  07/1200Z 15.7N  49.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  08/0000Z 16.6N  52.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

 60H  08/1200Z 17.8N  54.8W  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  09/0000Z 18.9N  57.1W  115 KT 130 MPH

 96H  10/0000Z 20.8N  61.5W  125 KT 145 MPH

120H  11/0000Z 22.5N  65.0W  130 KT 150 MPH

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

382 

WTNT43 KNHC 051459

TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023

1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave (Invest AL95) that 

we have been following for several days has become better organized 

this morning, with many curved low-level banding features.  A 

partial scatterometer pass near 1201 UTC indicated a well-defined 

center had formed, with winds speeds of about 30 kt.  Thus, 

advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, and 

the current intensity is set to 30 kt.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.  A 

mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to persist to 

the north of the tropical cyclone, keeping the system moving with 

this general motion through Saturday.  The spread in the model 

guidance is remarkably low for a first advisory, and the official 

forecast is near or west of the model consensus.  However, it 

should be noted that the NOAA corrected-consensus aids and some 

ensemble members are still to the left of the official forecast, so 

it is too early to determine exactly how close this system will get 

to the Leeward Islands given the average track forecast error at 

those time ranges.

The environment around the depression appears to be conducive for 

strengthening.  The only obvious hindering factor is 

light-to-moderate northeasterly shear, which should keep the 

intensification rate in check in the short term.  However, in two to 

three days, this shear is forecast to relax with an upper-level 

ridge building near the cyclone, and the system should be moving 

over record-warm waters of near 30 deg C east of the Lesser Antilles 

(that would look more in place in the Gulf of Mexico).  These 

factors could support rapid intensification by the end of the week, 

although it too early to determine exactly when this might occur 

until a better-defined inner core forms.  The NHC intensity forecast 

is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies 

below the intensity consensus.  All indications are that the 

depression will become a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast 

period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by 

this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that 

time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude 

of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor 

the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 12.5N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  06/0000Z 12.8N  42.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  06/1200Z 13.6N  44.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  07/0000Z 14.4N  47.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  07/1200Z 15.3N  49.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 60H  08/0000Z 16.2N  52.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  08/1200Z 17.3N  54.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  09/1200Z 19.4N  59.1W  115 KT 130 MPH

120H  10/1200Z 21.5N  63.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

$$

Forecaster Blake