Hurricane Teddy (Category Two) Churns In The Atlantic - Update Two
000
WTNT35 KNHC 210251
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020
...TEDDY TURNING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a northward
turn is expected Monday. This general motion should continue
through Tuesday evening. Teddy is approaching Bermuda from the
southeast, and the center should pass east of the island Monday
morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Monday night while
Teddy begins to interact with an approaching frontal system.
Although gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, the
cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane
Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday
morning.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
overnight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
000
WTNT45 KNHC 210251
TCDAT5
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020
Teddy's satellite presentation has changed little during the
past several hours albeit some warming of the eye. The
53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters recorded a central
pressure this evening of 963 mb, unchanged from the previous
mission, and the Dvorak subjective intensity estimates haven't
changed either. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt
for this advisory.
There is a chance, within the next 24 hours, that Teddy could
strengthen a bit due to dynamic forcing as a result of the
approaching baroclinic zone moving off of the northeast coast of
the United States. In Fact, the HCCA intensity model shows a peak
of 95 kt at the 24 hour period. By Tuesday afternoon, however,
increasing southwesterly shear associated with the rapidly
approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough, from the northwest,
should induce weakening. Because Teddy is a very large and strong
tropical cyclone, only gradual weakening is predicted. By mid
period, the large-scale models agree that Teddy will merge with the
aforementioned trough and associated frontal zone and complete its
extratropical cyclone transition south of Nova Scotia Tuesday
evening. Teddy is still forecast to be a very large and powerful
extratropical cyclone as it approaches, Nova Scotia at that time.
Wind, rain, surf and storm surge hazards are expected to spread over
an extensive portion of Atlantic Canada mid-week.
The forecast wind radii at the 36 hour period and beyond, are based
on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a
bias-corrected average of the global and regional models.
The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 5 kt.
The hurricane is likely to turn northward Monday morning and
continue in this general motion through Wednesday morning. Around
the 60 hour period, a turn north-northeastward is forecast ahead of
yet another mid-latitude pulse moving into eastern Canada. No
significant adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast and
it lies in between the surprisingly tightly clustered model
guidance.
Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.
Key Messages:
1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning
overnight and could continue into Monday evening.
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between
Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 29.4N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 30.9N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 38.5N 63.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 41.3N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 48.6N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0000Z 57.4N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts
8:48 PM ADT Sunday 20 September 2020
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Newfoundland and Labrador:
Burgeo - Ramea
Burin Peninsula
Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity
Connaigre
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
Québec - south:
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
For Hurricane Teddy.
The next information statement will be issued by 3:00 a.m. ADT.
Hurricane Teddy will approach Nova Scotia early on Tuesday and is expected to transition to a large and intense Post-Tropical Storm as it draws nearer to the province Tuesday night. Teddy will bring heavy
rain, strong winds and heavy pounding surf to much of the Maritimes and Newfoundland on Tuesday and Wednesday.
1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 p.m. ADT.
Location: near 29.4 North 63.4 West.
About 353 kilometres south-southeast of Bermuda.
Maximum sustained winds: 165 kilometres per hour.
Present movement: North-northwest at 15 kilometres per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 964 millibars.
Teddy is currently a category two hurricane over the Tropical Atlantic southeast of Bermuda. It will move generally northward tonight and Monday, passing east of Bermuda. Teddy is expected to transition
Monday night and Tuesday into a large and intense post-tropical storm. The storm will move into the Maritimes marine areas south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday then turn northeastward towards Cape
Breton Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Post-Tropical Storm Teddy is then expected to move across Newfoundland on Wednesday.
2. Public impacts and warnings summary:
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Atlantic coast of Mainland Nova Scotia. These watches will likely be extended to parts of Cape Breton later tonight and may be upgraded to Tropical Storm
Warnings as the storm draws closer.
a. Wind.
Too early to give specific wind forecasts, but most parts of the Maritimes and southern Newfoundland will see tropical storm force winds gusting in the 70 to 90 km/h range. Exposed areas along the
Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia where Teddy makes its closest approach could see higher gusts of 90 to 110 km/h or possibly slightly stronger. These winds will likely cause power outages, breaking branches
and possible tree falls, especially due to trees still having their full foliage.
b. Rainfall.
The highest rainfall amounts are likely to be just north and west of Teddy's eventual track through the region, which for now would encompass most of mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton, the eastern half
of Prince Edward Island, and parts of southwestern Newfoundland. Rainfall amounts in these areas could exceed 50 mm, with isolated areas possibly exceeding 75 mm.
c. Surge/Waves.
Very large waves will move into southern forecast waters overnight into Monday and will build along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday, with the highest waves expected late in the day. For
southern Newfoundland, large waves will build into the coast late on Tuesday into Wednesday, with the largest waves expected on Wednesday. Storm surge is likely, mainly for parts of the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Tuesday and for southwestern Newfoundland on Wednesday. There is also a chance for Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands late on Tuesday.
The highest risk is the combination of the very large waves combining with the storm surge to cause dangerous conditions along the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Rough and
pounding surf, localised flooding and coastal erosion are likely in vulnerable areas.
3. Marine impacts and warning summary:
As Hurricane Teddy moves into our waters, there is a reasonable chance of hurricane force winds near and south of the track, mainly over southern Atlantic Canada forecast waters. Tropical storm force
winds are likely farther north into the Gulf of St, Lawrence and southern coastal Newfoundland. There will also be large waves, again mainly over southern waters.
Forecaster(s): Hatt/Borgel
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210144
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
944 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region tonight and remain
overhead Monday. Hurricane Teddy will pass east of the area
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high pressure follows for
Wednesday. A weak cold front will cross the region later
Thursday. High pressure will build in for Friday......
........SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The high pressure system centered to the west will be the
controlling factor from Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will remain fairly chilly with clear skies through
the night. Winds will remain variable and light.
The high will then be pushed out by Hurricane Teddy on Tuesday
afternoon. N winds are expected to increase throughout the day,
especially in the Downeast and coastal areas. Temperatures
should remain cool to normal across the entire region. Rain
chances are forecasted to increase, mainly in the far SE and
eastern areas. Hurricane Teddy is expected to track NNE through
Tuesday night, which will cause increased clouds and milder low
temperatures across the entire region. The chance of rain will
remain strictly to the SE and E with high winds and possible
gusts of 35 mph. By Wednesday, Hurricane Teddy should quickly
move off to the NE, causing winds to decrease in the SE and
increase across the rest of the region. Skies should remain
cloudy throughout the day causing temperatures to be above
normal. Chance of rain should also be gone with Teddy.
There is high confidence with the center track of Teddy
remaining to the E of the Gulf of Maine. This track is expected
to just glance our region, possibly causing the most weather
over Washington County and the coastal areas with high winds,
swells, and waves. After collaboration with the NHC, decision
was to hold off on any Tropical headlines. The concern is that
the system could transition to extra-tropical(post tropical)
before it gets near the outer Gulf of Maine waters.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong low pressure will continue to move Northeast across
Labrador/New Foundland Wednesday night. Expect a mainly clear
night as high pressure begins to build in from the west. After
a mainly sunny start Thursday, clouds will begin to increase in
advance of an approaching short wave and cold front from Quebec.
The front will cross the region late Thursday. Once again, very
limited moisture will accompany the front, with the better
dynamics passing to the North of the state. High pressure builds
in Thursday night. Some radiational cooling across the North is
possible, and lowered NBM by just a few degrees, as the arrival
of high cloud from the next system late may cap lows a bit.
Friday will be a dry and somewhat cooler day as high pressure
begins to move east. The high continues to the east of the
Canadian maritimes Friday night and Saturday. High pressure at
the surface and aloft will remain across the region right
through Sunday. This will keep a southwest flow in place with
above normal temperatures expected. In fact, the latest CPC 6
to 10 day outlook favors above normal temperatures across
Northern and Downeast Maine..............
9:47 PM ADT Sunday 20 September 2020
Special weather statement in effect for:
Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
Hurricane Teddy will approach Nova Scotia early on Tuesday and is expected to transition to a large and intense Post-Tropical Storm as it draws nearer to the province Tuesday night. Teddy will bring heavy
rain, strong winds and heavy pounding surf to much of the Maritimes and Newfoundland on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A tropical storm watch is now if effect for Atlantic Coastal Regions of Nova Scotia.
Although it is early to talk specific numbers the following are expected impacts from the storm.
Storm surge...
Large waves will build along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday, with the largest waves expected late in the day. Storm surge is likely for parts of the Atlantic Coast Tuesday.
Wind...
Most regions of Nova Scotia will see tropical storm force winds. Exposed areas along the Atlantic Coast are likely to experience strong winds of 100 km/h or higher.
Rainfall...
Rainfall could be significant, especially north and west of the track. At this point, the highest rainfall amounts are likely for central and eastern Nova Scotia.
For more detailed information refer to the tropical cyclone information statement at: https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.
2:54 PM ADT Sunday 20 September 2020
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Tropical storm force winds of possible 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Teddy may occur over the above regions.
Hurricane Teddy will approach Atlantic Canada on Tuesday and will track through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Potential wind gusts: 100 km/h or possibly higher over exposed areas along the Atlantic coast.
Locations: Atlantic coastal regions of Nova Scotia.
Time span: Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.
Remarks: A band of very strong easterly or northeasterly winds, likely gusting to 100 km/h or higher over exposed areas, is expected to develop during the day Tuesday and be strongest Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Another period of strong winds is also likely Wednesday morning as Teddy as pulls away and moves off to the east.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.
By nature, a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to
NSstorm@canada.ca or by tweeting reports by province using #NSStorm, #NBStorm, #PEStorm, #NLwx, #QCStorm or #ONStorm.
posted by Advackia at 9:18 PM
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